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Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?
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Ian
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Jul 16, 2023 04:00PM

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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...
https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-...
https://news.yahoo.com/rfk-jr-does-da...

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07...
http..."
Thanks P
For Beau see his comments about how his words were misinterpreted. Not sure how he believes that given what he said is widely reported.

From my own experience with my mother who died this year from the disease, she was able to function near normally up until the last 12 months because of limited social interaction and her particular symptoms. Many of her friends and neighbours were unaware.
Biden is not in that position given daily interaction with White House staff but it's family that will notice most.
I can imagine an election next year without the ex-President (due to legal issues) and without Biden standing. Wouldn't that be better for USA? Only dreaming that US voters will decide on better candidates no that there seem to be many who would appeal across party lines - the parties themselves being so divisive. Is there no common ground?
Thanks for all the links, Papaphilly. When you put it like that, with direct quotes, the kindest possible thing you can say about RFK Jr is that he is naive in the extreme for floating ideas like that. Of course, there could be more sinister motives than naivety - who knows.
Apologies, Philip, clearly more to it than propaganda. If one floats ideas like that, without seriously hard-core evidence, one's going to get savaged. And I share your desire to see new candidates.
Also, v sorry to hear about your mum. My dad passed away at the start of this year too, from Parkinsonism. Possibly not as cruel as Dementia, but still a v nasty illness.
For non-UK group members' benefit tho, I'd like to respond to one of Papaphilly's links, which claims that 1 in 5 Brits believe anti-semitic covid conspiracy theories. With my anti lockdown and anti compulsory covid vaccination stance, I must've read every conspiracy going on this subject. I believe some of them. But let me say that I haven't read anything, or met anyone, who links it to a Jewish conspiracy. This is simply a slur to try and discredit a skeptical position, which, as you saw at the time, had the mainstream narrative on the ropes (or at best the article was grossly misinformed reporting).
Apologies, Philip, clearly more to it than propaganda. If one floats ideas like that, without seriously hard-core evidence, one's going to get savaged. And I share your desire to see new candidates.
Also, v sorry to hear about your mum. My dad passed away at the start of this year too, from Parkinsonism. Possibly not as cruel as Dementia, but still a v nasty illness.
For non-UK group members' benefit tho, I'd like to respond to one of Papaphilly's links, which claims that 1 in 5 Brits believe anti-semitic covid conspiracy theories. With my anti lockdown and anti compulsory covid vaccination stance, I must've read every conspiracy going on this subject. I believe some of them. But let me say that I haven't read anything, or met anyone, who links it to a Jewish conspiracy. This is simply a slur to try and discredit a skeptical position, which, as you saw at the time, had the mainstream narrative on the ropes (or at best the article was grossly misinformed reporting).
Just reread Papa links. The Brit accusation was a study! Gordon Bennett! Not sure who they 'studied' but I would imagine they fired some heavily loaded questions at a small number of v odd and otherwise silent people.
I've been thinking about the above accusation, Nik, because it surprised me so much, and I think the study or writer has taken globalist to mean Jewish. I appreciate historical narratives linking the two but IMO it's a cheap shot nowadays to link them. The drive towards one world government is very real and nothing to do with religion. How can it be when the actors pushing it don't share a common religion, if they even believe in religion at all? I've read many articles, esp re covid, by Israeli academics and scientists who find the accusation equally unfair. They were at the forefront of the fight against the response to covid. How can they be anti semitic?
The anti semitic label seems to be the go-to method for shutting down legitimate debate now. One of our MPs, Andrew Bridgen, was expelled from the Conservative Party for directly quoting something said to him by an Israeli cardiologist, who claimed covid vaccines were the greatest crime against humanity since the Holocaust. The charge - anti semitism.
Whether he's right or wrong about the vaccines isn't the point, how can a Jewish Israeli, or somebody who quotes him, be anti semitic?
Sorry for going off topic but as someone who opposed the appalling covid measures but is far more appalled by what happened to Jews in the Holocaust, this trope really riles me.
The anti semitic label seems to be the go-to method for shutting down legitimate debate now. One of our MPs, Andrew Bridgen, was expelled from the Conservative Party for directly quoting something said to him by an Israeli cardiologist, who claimed covid vaccines were the greatest crime against humanity since the Holocaust. The charge - anti semitism.
Whether he's right or wrong about the vaccines isn't the point, how can a Jewish Israeli, or somebody who quotes him, be anti semitic?
Sorry for going off topic but as someone who opposed the appalling covid measures but is far more appalled by what happened to Jews in the Holocaust, this trope really riles me.

Sadly, this is how: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/art...
For you to understand the degree of hatred that's being inflated here. That's why I say we are on a brink of a civil war. What characterized Israel for decades was the feeling of fraternity, common fate and a joint mission among Jews, which Bibi, basing his policies on division and hatred long ruined. Now, they all condemn what he said, but they themselves encourage such thinking and behavior, just occasionally publicly "distancing" themselves when it goes viral.
I've read your posts on other threads about this judicial reform. Without appreciating the finer details, my natural instinct has been to support your opposition to them. I find that chap's comments extraordinary. He must've lost his mind.
Regarding the proposed reforms, authoritarianism does appear to be on the rise, not just in Israel, but across the whole Western world. Although I know v little about Israeli politics, I'd hope it's not too much of a leap of faith to presume that Israeli lockdown sceptics are very much against this chap, and the proposed reforms. It would certainly be consistent with any anti-authoritarian stance.
Regarding the proposed reforms, authoritarianism does appear to be on the rise, not just in Israel, but across the whole Western world. Although I know v little about Israeli politics, I'd hope it's not too much of a leap of faith to presume that Israeli lockdown sceptics are very much against this chap, and the proposed reforms. It would certainly be consistent with any anti-authoritarian stance.

The obvious is that there are genetic markers associated with higher rates of negative outcomes.
Most of the ethnic studies did show a higher rate of negative outcomes among "minorities" (the studies skewed massively eurocentric). One British study showed a 100% increase in negative outcomes among black patients in Great Britain, but that study attributed the difference to socioeconomic factors (racism). In fact, most of the ethnicity based studies I found ended with conclusions advocating for "equitable" planning.
The genetic studies were able to show definite correlations between negative outcomes and specific genetic markers. Yet again, this was in a decidedly eurocentric sample. And the authors seemed reticent to tie said markers to high occurrence populations based on race.
While I found studies which claimed Covid was worse for black people, I found no such finding for white people. It should be noted that because the were eurocentric samples white people were the baseline for all metrics.
I found no studies which showed fewer than average negative outcomes for Jews or Asians. Of course, we have no reliable numbers from within the People's Republic of China.
I suspect that RFK Jr. is conflating a mix of studies and conjectures about how a virus could be targeted. This conflation is being fed back to him from his echo chamber. I have no idea where the Ashkenazi Jew element came from. Perhaps it was a stray comment at a cocktail party?
My head hurts and I think that wrapping my skull in tin foil might help. I'm worried that trying to run this down will involve a big cork board and a mile of twine.

In UK studies poverty in all races has shown adverse outcomes for all diseases (even obesity due to quality of food) not just COVID and incidence of alcoholism, drug addiction and crime. I too, have seen no studies that show COVID had a better or worse outcome on ethnic groups and as for religious belief that's even more far-fetched.
There are specific diseases that are more prevalent to ethnic or racial groups Sickle -Cell anaemia is one
https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/unde...
But they are not impossible in others. For candidates of any particular party to claim something different is disingenuous at best
The old quote ... How do you know when a politician is lying? ....


It's kinda funny that they think that the democracy had already been gone during corona and it's too late, therefore they sit at home now, while before they didn't miss a protest. I know personally 2 such persons.
Sounds like they've given up on politics and would rather concentrate on more uplifting things instead. I understand where they're coming from to some extent. I'm ashamed in some ways to say it, but I'm not sure I'll vote next time out, which would be a first. I don't trust any of the mainstream parties anymore but don't want to embrace extremists.
I know the majority of active posters in the group supported the response to covid, but it shook my own belief in our whole system (and much of the population) to the core. It's what prompted me to participate in online discussions for the first time but it also left me disillusioned in our party political system and the MSM.
Question for you, Nik...
I understand the anger/ passion/ whatever you want to call it of those protesting against the reforms but what motivates equally strong feelings in favour of them? Is it simply loyalty to Netanyahu?
Also, back on topic, is any candidate from either party in the US attracting positive stories in the MSM...apart from Biden, of course :)
I know the majority of active posters in the group supported the response to covid, but it shook my own belief in our whole system (and much of the population) to the core. It's what prompted me to participate in online discussions for the first time but it also left me disillusioned in our party political system and the MSM.
Question for you, Nik...
I understand the anger/ passion/ whatever you want to call it of those protesting against the reforms but what motivates equally strong feelings in favour of them? Is it simply loyalty to Netanyahu?
Also, back on topic, is any candidate from either party in the US attracting positive stories in the MSM...apart from Biden, of course :)


In short - cult, ignorance and brewing discontent, which Bibi and his reservoir dogs route towards the court system. While Bibi and his cohort solve their very personal legal problems, if they subdue the courts, there is nothing in it for their supporters. That's for ignorance.
There are people who are outspoken that even if Bibi raped their daughter they'd still vote for Bibi. That's cult.
While Bibi is clearly an elitist, his base are low-tire, disgruntled dudes, who aren't particular about the rule of law. Some similarity to BLM, as they go out against what they are told "white (Ashkenazi) elites". Another part are religious dudes, who support Bibi's religious coalition partners. Obviously, they don't need any democracy because for them what a rabbi says is what matters. They don't cherish gender equality either - for them women must sit in the back of the bus. And so on.
Bibi himself is very well mannered, but he keeps around him reservoir dogs, who bark the dirtiest stuff possible at whoever Bibi puts as a target. They demonize the courts, pouring all kind of unbelievable stuff, like that Supreme court is responsible for Palestinian terror and what not. People buy it.
It's a non issue, we have much more pressing affairs. There is a lot to improve in courts, but not to undermine their independence. However, they galvanized the public that it's "live or die" for the government.
The regular secular crowd believes that if the government concentrates all branches of power under them - it's basically dictatorship, since no checks and balances are left in place and they gain an unlimited, super corrupted power.
Not that we don't have corruption - ex-prime minister, president, finance minister and more did time in jail - at least those who were caught got what they deserved. The current government wants it all to change and being partially comprised of extremists, it's understandable that they have a long agenda to implement once the judicial oversight is gone .

Christie is not in to win. He has zero chance. He could not even get elected dog catcher in NJ. He is in it to try and knock out Trump.
I seem to remember Barbara and Papaphilly mocking Chris Christie a while back.
Bookmakers are astute people and I think the odds on becoming the Republican nominee are quite telling...
Trump 4/7
Desantis 5/1
25/1 bar
It's a 2 horse race, isn't it?
My money's on DeSantis. He is the only one of the two who could beat Biden, and that's not a high bar. I think Trump got a raw deal at the hands of the MSM, and has clearly upset the deep state, but he hasn't really helped himself, has he? Fresh face required.
Nik, the situation in Israel sounds bad. Angry people following the cult of personality never ends well (take note Trumpettes). Hope your protests succeed.
Bookmakers are astute people and I think the odds on becoming the Republican nominee are quite telling...
Trump 4/7
Desantis 5/1
25/1 bar
It's a 2 horse race, isn't it?
My money's on DeSantis. He is the only one of the two who could beat Biden, and that's not a high bar. I think Trump got a raw deal at the hands of the MSM, and has clearly upset the deep state, but he hasn't really helped himself, has he? Fresh face required.
Nik, the situation in Israel sounds bad. Angry people following the cult of personality never ends well (take note Trumpettes). Hope your protests succeed.
The polls are suggesting that the more charges Trump faces, the more popular he gets with Republican voters :)
I've already written off his chances on a couple of threads and can't face making another U-turn, so do others (particularly Americans) think...
1. He will win the nomination?
2. He could beat Biden?
The polls have him behind Biden but
3. Could Trump's choice of running mate help put him in the White House?
I'm thinking Tulsi Gabbard but I don't even know if she's now a member of the GOP, or if this matters, so
4. Could Tulsi Gabbard feasibly become Trump's running mate?
I've already written off his chances on a couple of threads and can't face making another U-turn, so do others (particularly Americans) think...
1. He will win the nomination?
2. He could beat Biden?
The polls have him behind Biden but
3. Could Trump's choice of running mate help put him in the White House?
I'm thinking Tulsi Gabbard but I don't even know if she's now a member of the GOP, or if this matters, so
4. Could Tulsi Gabbard feasibly become Trump's running mate?

As for candidates - I think its a mistake for the left, having elevated victimhood to the level they have to then make Trump a victim. It seems only to have consolidated his support. As for the second place spot - the more I hear of Ramaswamy the more I like him. And unless DeSantis finds a new angle, I think he's starting to fade.
That's a clever point about victimhood, Barbara. Didn't think about that. I've got mixed feelings about Trump. I acknowledge all the bad points but the devil inside me will laugh if he gets elected. I will buy some popcorn to enjoy the progressives' meltdown.
I don't know anything about Ramaswamy so will look into him.
I love DeSantis. OK, it's primarily for his anti lockdown stance. Got to be honest tho, I'm getting the impression he's fading too. Hope he gets a 2nd wind.
I don't know anything about Ramaswamy so will look into him.
I love DeSantis. OK, it's primarily for his anti lockdown stance. Got to be honest tho, I'm getting the impression he's fading too. Hope he gets a 2nd wind.

It is not good for the Republicans.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida...

I like DeSantis much better as president than Trump, who's carrying a train-load of baggage, even though I though Trump was a good president and could have done a lot more for the country if the Democrats hadn't been dogging him with lies. I heard someone say the other day that DeSantis won't be elected because he's not the kind of guy you'd want to have a beer with. What do you think?
If DeSantis' nomination is successful (and I hope it is), Philip will have a field day finding negative articles about and linked to him. Some will be true, others won't, and the rest will fill the grey area in between.
The Dalai Lama...oh wait, bad example...I mean the late, great Nelson Mandela could've run against Biden and the US deep state + their media lackies would still have tried to smear him.
Whichever candidate wins is going to endure an absolute s**t storm, but if the American public see through it, hopefully they might still prevail.
The Dalai Lama...oh wait, bad example...I mean the late, great Nelson Mandela could've run against Biden and the US deep state + their media lackies would still have tried to smear him.
Whichever candidate wins is going to endure an absolute s**t storm, but if the American public see through it, hopefully they might still prevail.

Think Trump finds all the articles on DeSantis going - I need do nothing. My mention of DeSantis was in his claims about how good he was for Florida during COVID and since which is what he was claiming and Trump immediately disputed. The legal article was implying DeSantis hence wanting and explanation.
Absolutely. I don't dispute any of that. The only reason I referenced you is that you are the regular source of what's been said about US politicians in US press.
My point is that DeSantis, Trump or AN Other is going to find anything negative relating to them, no matter how tenuous the link, as headline news.
Biden won't.
My point is that DeSantis, Trump or AN Other is going to find anything negative relating to them, no matter how tenuous the link, as headline news.
Biden won't.

I like DeSantis much better as president than Trump, who's carrying a train-load of baggage, even though I though Trump was a good president and could have..."
I could not have said it better. I am not a Trump fan and never have been, but I did like some of his policies and do think there has been a "conspiracy" to take him out. I also think Trump derangement syndrome is real.


https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/s...
Chris Christie into 2nd behind Trump in GOP nominations
Also saw video of Ramaswamy discussing LGBT etc - calm friendly on both sides proving contentious issues can be discussed politely. He made some very good points and listened respectfully to contrary opinions. Very pleasant change to most discourse in US and UK.

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/s...
Chris Christie into 2nd behind Trump in GOP nominations
Also saw video of Ramaswamy discussing LGBT etc - cal..."
Poll of Hew Hampshire voters with an n<500, compared to >300,000 registered Republicans in New Hampshire...
I note that there is one percentage point separating Christie and DeSantis in a poll with a MOE >4%
The real polls won't start until this spring.

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/s...
Chris Christie into 2nd behind Trump in GOP nominations
Also saw video of Ramaswamy discussing..."
Thanks J puts that into better context. Regardless of who is 2nd they are still a long way off.
Worth noting too that New Hampshire is an affluent state, which normally votes Democrat.
If the US is anything like Britain, this type of area would contain Republicans unlikely to favour DeSantis. They would be a bit like our own Tory 'wets'.
It would be akin to asking Tory voters in Islington whether they favour Lee Anderson over Rishi.
No need for DeSantis to worry about this. The sole focus must be on catching Trump, who, according to the number of lawsuits being filed against him must be the most evil US politician who ever lived.
Or at least that's what the machine want you to believe, just like they want you to vote for Christie - the modern day Republican version of a 1984 Walter Mondale.
All the machine's machinations are designed to put Biden and Harris back in the White House, but I think most Republicans, dotted around the country, realise this.
If the US is anything like Britain, this type of area would contain Republicans unlikely to favour DeSantis. They would be a bit like our own Tory 'wets'.
It would be akin to asking Tory voters in Islington whether they favour Lee Anderson over Rishi.
No need for DeSantis to worry about this. The sole focus must be on catching Trump, who, according to the number of lawsuits being filed against him must be the most evil US politician who ever lived.
Or at least that's what the machine want you to believe, just like they want you to vote for Christie - the modern day Republican version of a 1984 Walter Mondale.
All the machine's machinations are designed to put Biden and Harris back in the White House, but I think most Republicans, dotted around the country, realise this.

If the US is anything like Britain, this type of area would contain Republicans unlikely to favour DeSanti..."
There is no need to so malign Walter Mondale.
Yes, nothing against Walter - I'm sure he was a decent bloke with good policies, but he appeared to be a bit of a non entity - cannon fodder, with no chance of replacing the incumbent president.
Christie would be the same if he was chosen, but he won't be. The machine probably scoured the length and breadth of the country to find a poll like that, and they eventually succeeded thanks to the wet lettuces of NH :)
Gotta say tho, on Barbara's advice I've been looking at Ramaswamy and I like him. Perhaps a dark horse for the Rep nomination?
What are people on the street saying about this chap? Is his campaign continuing to gather momentum?
Christie would be the same if he was chosen, but he won't be. The machine probably scoured the length and breadth of the country to find a poll like that, and they eventually succeeded thanks to the wet lettuces of NH :)
Gotta say tho, on Barbara's advice I've been looking at Ramaswamy and I like him. Perhaps a dark horse for the Rep nomination?
What are people on the street saying about this chap? Is his campaign continuing to gather momentum?

Yeah, I heard Christie was up in the NH polls above DeSantis, but I'm from NJ and I would never vote for him, and I hear a lot of NJers say the same. He is not popular here.
Interesting stuff, Barbara.
I initially liked RFK Jr but my belief in him was shaken when Papaphilly and Philip alerted us to some of his borderline anti-semitic rhetoric. However, I read this earlier. His points about capitalism, the super rich, working and middle classes are bang on the money:
https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.or...
Ram makes some excellent points in the article too. Also appears that Ram was a covid realist and so lockdown sceptic. I'm thinking of jumping ship from DeSantis to him.
I initially liked RFK Jr but my belief in him was shaken when Papaphilly and Philip alerted us to some of his borderline anti-semitic rhetoric. However, I read this earlier. His points about capitalism, the super rich, working and middle classes are bang on the money:
https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.or...
Ram makes some excellent points in the article too. Also appears that Ram was a covid realist and so lockdown sceptic. I'm thinking of jumping ship from DeSantis to him.

https://twitter.com/i/status/16919793...
https://time.com/6305003/trump-indict...
Section Three provides that no person can hold political office if, having taken an oath to support the Constitution as a state or federal official, they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.”
How would this be applied given innocent until proven guilty?
Will other candidates try to claim this against the former President?
It sounds like a conundrum for the US political and legal system, Philip.
If I was a candidate I wouldn't use it because it would turn the MAGA crowd against me and destroy my chances of winning.
Neither would I back Trump because that would make me seem like his lapdog and would also alienate those who dislike him.
Other candidates should concentrate on their own records and planned policies, and try and sidestep questions about Trump.
If backed into a corner, simply say President Trump is well meaning and had some good policies, but he is too divisive a character, without the necessary statesman-like bearing to become president of our great nation again. He is both a victim AND a cause of the division we are now seeing. He may or may not be guilty of charges - that is not for me to say but I have complete faith in our great American legal system to find the answers.
We now need to move on from the Trump/ Biden era and unite our wonderful nation, combining age-old American values with a clear vision for the future. I plan to do this by...
Note - if any of the candidates are reading this, I am willing to advise you and write speeches for a small fee. Please send me a private message.
Likewise, if American group members wish me to run against Trump and then Biden, please arrange citizenship documents for me, along with the appropriate finance. I will beat both of them :)
Philip, fancy a job as VP? If not, I'm happy to make you lead prosecutor in the cases against Trump. Again, a small fee is all that's required.
If I was a candidate I wouldn't use it because it would turn the MAGA crowd against me and destroy my chances of winning.
Neither would I back Trump because that would make me seem like his lapdog and would also alienate those who dislike him.
Other candidates should concentrate on their own records and planned policies, and try and sidestep questions about Trump.
If backed into a corner, simply say President Trump is well meaning and had some good policies, but he is too divisive a character, without the necessary statesman-like bearing to become president of our great nation again. He is both a victim AND a cause of the division we are now seeing. He may or may not be guilty of charges - that is not for me to say but I have complete faith in our great American legal system to find the answers.
We now need to move on from the Trump/ Biden era and unite our wonderful nation, combining age-old American values with a clear vision for the future. I plan to do this by...
Note - if any of the candidates are reading this, I am willing to advise you and write speeches for a small fee. Please send me a private message.
Likewise, if American group members wish me to run against Trump and then Biden, please arrange citizenship documents for me, along with the appropriate finance. I will beat both of them :)
Philip, fancy a job as VP? If not, I'm happy to make you lead prosecutor in the cases against Trump. Again, a small fee is all that's required.

You're a well connected chap, Nik. Send some of these people my way if they need help. I offer better insight into voters' psyche than the 2nd rate marketing muppets who currently advise them.
One amendment to previous advice...
Don't go into too much detail about Trump. Simply say that issues surrounding him have become a 'circus' and that the nation needs to move on because the American people deserve better. That way, you're not criticising or supporting him, you're dismissing him as a distraction from more important issues.
One amendment to previous advice...
Don't go into too much detail about Trump. Simply say that issues surrounding him have become a 'circus' and that the nation needs to move on because the American people deserve better. That way, you're not criticising or supporting him, you're dismissing him as a distraction from more important issues.

https://twitter.com/i/status/16919793...
https://time.com/6305003/tru..."
Insurrection and Rebellion have very exact meaning in the law. trump ha snot been charged with this nor have many others. I may not like what he did, but that does not mean he has no right to do it or it is illegal. Calling something an insurrection does not make it one. This is nothing more than politics.
As for the trials, let them run their course.


https://youtu.be/lrpW-SUchFo"
And this on 9/11. Think the GOP need to think again. No wonder they think DJT is best candidate...
Books mentioned in this topic
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)The Federalist Papers (other topics)
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)
Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis (other topics)
Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72 (other topics)
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Authors mentioned in this topic
J.D. Vance (other topics)Tulsi Gabbard (other topics)
Smedley D. Butler (other topics)
Robert Iger (other topics)
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