Tournament of Books discussion
2021 TOB General Topics
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2021 TOB Shortlist Prediction Contest
Hi Amy, will the spreadsheet be ready for 2021 predictions soon? I'm not sure if we have an estimated date for the shortlist announcement... Thanks!
Am I missing something - these predictions on the spreadsheet are for the books of last year?
shortlist prediction is open! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Last year the shortlist was released mid-December to everyone's surprise, so flex your prediction neurons soon!
bracket (tourney) prediction is usually run via themorningnews.org twitter account but I can create one after the bracket is posted approximately January.
Thank Amy! I like your play-in theme. :) I'm struggling to come up with my picks for that part...
Oh no, what happens if two people already guessed my two ideas for playin themes? I will feel bad entering them on the spreadsheet now....
C wrote: "Oh no, what happens if two people already guessed my two ideas for playin themes? I will feel bad entering them on the spreadsheet now...."Go for it! I was considering borrowing some of the other ideas for that since they were fun, and there are only so many unique options to come up with... I believe we've had doubles/triples in the past for play-in theme guesses.
Thank you Amy! Man, mine were a bunch of guesses! Not that that's any worse than actually putting thought into it!
Lauren wrote: "C wrote: "Oh no, what happens if two people already guessed my two ideas for playin themes? I will feel bad entering them on the spreadsheet now...."Go for it! I was considering borrowing some of..."
haha Lauren - despite having one of those play-in ideas about a YEAR ago, I will refrain from reposting either one and try a new play-in idea. :D
Thanks for setting this up! Never played this game before, let's see if I have beginner's luck.
Oof, just filled mine out and feel stressed about it! I will say that pondering play-ins has been a real delight. Once we have the announcement, I'd love to hear if anyone had ideas they scrapped!
What would be fun to see along with everyone's individual predictions for the short list would be a list of all 77 books with the number of people who have chosen them. I took a quick snapshot just now - surprisingly, =Sharks in the Time of Saviors= does not have the most mentions - it trails one behind =Interior Chinatown=, which tops the list.
=Deacon King Kong= and =Shuggie Bain= tie for 3rd place
=Apeirogon=, =Transcendent Kingdom=, =Piranesi=, =A Children's Bible=, =Luster=, =Hamnet=, and =The Vanishing Half= round out the selections with double-digit mentions (so far).
And if the shortlist were made from our votes (at the moment I pulled the data), these would round out the 18:
Earthlings
Breasts and Eggs
Ring Shout
Leave the World Behind
Real Life
A Certain Hunger
Clap When You Land
Tim - that is actually available on the stats page :). Any picked 1 time or fewer will show in red, but the # of times selected is listed either way. I did this so that people get tie-breaker points if they picked something no one else did for their shortlist (and it makes it in).
Tim wrote: "What would be fun to see along with everyone's individual predictions for the short list would be a list of all 77 books with the number of people who have chosen them. I took a quick snapshot ju..."
Thanks for this data - fun stuff! I did some scanning to see if I could add in another unique pick or two, but I'm having trouble deciding what to cut to bring in another "wild horse" option. I'm curious if a few books will get left out of all of our predictions.
Maybe we can create that list once the predictions are closed.
Amy, do you want to pick a deadline for predictions that will give folks a little more time to add their guesses, but not too close to when the shortlist might be announced? Maybe December 10th or 11th?
Amy wrote: "Tim - that is actually available on the stats page :). Any picked 1 time or fewer will show in red, but the # of times selected is listed either way. I did this so that people get tie-breaker point..."Oh, awesome - thanks for adding that!
Amy wrote: "Tim - that is actually available on the stats page :)..."d'Oh! I didn't realize there was a stats page.... Thanks!
Amy wrote: "Tim - that is actually available on the stats page :). Any picked 1 time or fewer will show in red, but the # of times selected is listed either way. I did this so that people get tie-breaker point..."Hey Amy: just wondering...do you include the Tester's picks in the final stats (they're in the counts now)?
I've never done well with this contest because I always put a bunch of books I want to read on it. So, this year it's 3 sure things, my 2 favorite books, 3 books I really want to read, 7 books chosen at random, and an improbable play-in. Good luck everyone. Hope we get the shortlist before I buy any more books I won't read.
Made my predictions and anxiety immediately set in. I'm gonna need that shortlist sooner rather than later...
I see two others had my idea of a previous champions play-in. I think I still wanna do that as my picks. So does this stay open until the day before the shortlist release?
Bob wrote: "I see two others had my idea of a previous champions play-in. I think I still wanna do that as my picks. So does this stay open until the day before the shortlist release?"With four winners competing, that leaves one out in the cold. (That was a Summer joke)
Jason wrote: "With four winners competing, that leaves one out in the cold. (That was a Summer joke)"oh, shoot, forgot Ali Smith won ha! Good thing it's still open...
Hope everyone saw the Reader Judge submission email today (if you want your chance to be a Reader Judge in 2021 TOB the link follows)They hint the shortlist is coming soon so I want to warn everyone that I’ll freeze predictions Thursday night in the hopes the shortlist is released next Friday!
Reader Judge link: https://themorningnews.org/p/the-tour...
Amy wrote: "Hope everyone saw the Reader Judge submission email today (if you want your chance to be a Reader Judge in 2021 TOB the link follows)They hint the shortlist is coming soon so I want to warn everyo..."
Amy - I really think the shortlist will be much earlier than Friday, unless you are more in-the-know! I would guess Mon,Tues or Wed.
C wrote: "Amy wrote: "Hope everyone saw the Reader Judge submission email today (if you want your chance to be a Reader Judge in 2021 TOB the link follows)They hint the shortlist is coming soon so I want to..."
Yes, it's possible they'll post the shortlist before the reader judge application deadline. So maybe freeze the spreadsheet Sunday night?
Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)
Good to know! That means I might be able to fit in an extra book or two I’m considering for my prediction...
Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"Amy I think you have a duplicate on your shortlist prediction.
lark wrote: "Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"Amy I think you have a duplicate on your shortlist prediction."
:) yeah, thanks I did that on purpose as part of a test but also so folks could see the data validation example. I haven't remoted read enough of the longlist to have my real guesses in (though it was fun to toss in my play-in theme) so I'm cramming a bunch more this weekend and will seriously whittle down my shortlist around Wednesday
Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"OH it's great to know it will actually be on Friday so I'm not frantically checking and wasting valuable reading time. Thanks :D
Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"I'M NOT READY
Jenny (Reading Envy) wrote: "Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"I'M NOT READY"
Me either! I’m always torn between wanting the list early so I can decide which books to focus on, and wanting it later because I’m sad about all the books I’ve picked up that I probably won’t ever read because they’re out of the running.
Elizabeth wrote: "Jenny (Reading Envy) wrote: "Amy wrote: "Nope - checked with Andrew and it’ll come out Friday :)"I'M NOT READY"
Me either! I’m always torn between wanting the list early so I can decide which bo..."
Exactly ... It makes me feel I need to read everything I have on hand at least which would be one a day....
I have only read 7 of the list, and the rest are educated guesses!! :-)
We should do a topic at some point about the best longlist books we read before the shortlist was announced.
For fun, I went and looked at LitHub's "Ultimate Best Books of 2019 List" (tallying the number of year-end best-of lists various books appear on). Last year's list included down to books appearing on 4 lists. For last year's shortlist, this is the number of lists each book appeared on:All this could be yours 7
Fleishman is in trouble 20
Girl, woman, other 11
Lost children archive 12
Mary Toft <4
Normal people 20
Nothing to see here 6
On earth we’re briefly gorgeous 21
Optic nerve <4
Overthrow <4
Saudade <4
The Testaments 12
Trust Exercise 16
The Water Dancer 13
Your House Will Pay 6
Golden State <4
Oval <4
We Cast a Shadow <4
It picked most of the "heavy hitters" appearing on the most lists, notably excluding Nickel Boys (which tied On Earth We're Briefly Gorgeous for the most total lists), and then a bunch of middle-of-the-road picks plus a handful of total out-of-left-field picks (with Mary Toft potentially being less unexpected since Dexter Palmer was a previous tournament selection).
This year, LitHub's data only goes down to 6 lists. Of the books on the longlist hitting the limit, we have:
A Burning 13
A Children's Bible 11
Cleanness 12
Deacon King Kong 16
Hamnet 15
Interior Chinatown 9
Jack 7
Leave the World Behind 20
Luster 16
Memorial 14
My Dark Vanessa 6
Piranesi 10
Real Life 9
Sharks in Time of Saviors 7
Shuggie Bain 12
Such a Fun Age 10
The Cold Millions 8
The Death of Vivek Oji 9
The Glass Hotel 10
The Nightwatchman 6
The Vanishing Half 25
Transcendent Kingdom 17
If the pattern from last year is repeated, we can probably assume that most of The Vanishing Half, Leave the World Behind, Transcendent Kingdom, Luster, Deacon King Kong, and Hamnet will get in. Then we have Shuggie Bain, Sharks, and Interior Chinatown as likely/guaranteed picks with middle-of-the-road Best-of list counts. There are a ton of books that appear on 5 or fewer best-of lists to fill out the tournament's usual quantity of unheralded picks, so good luck figuring out which ones there.
What I find interesting is then comparing those counts with the popularity in this group's predictions. This group is MUCH higher on Apeirogon than general critics are (because Colum McCann was a past winner?), as well as Earthlings and Breasts and Eggs, but comparatively negative about, say, Leave the World Behind and Memorial.
Interesting...I think it may be that Apeirogon feels important...and Earthlings is so different, and has the controversial, some-will-like-some-will-hate vibe that would make for interesting discussion. I've gone back and forth on whether Breasts & Eggs will make it. It's a good read, but I'm guessing (could be wrong?) much more for women than men. I just went in and exchanged it on my bracket for Transcendent Kingdom...only because weeks after reading them, TK is the book I've found myself thinking of more.
Simms wrote: "For fun, I went and looked at LitHub's "Ultimate Best Books of 2019 List" (tallying the number of year-end best-of lists various books appear on). Last year's list included down to books appearing ..."Wow, thanks for this analysis! I might update one or two of my predictions based on this information... :)
Earthlings vs Tender is the Flesh is the contest to watch for the “Extremely Weird, Bordering On Way Too Gross” TOB slot (both 5 star reads for me). I can’t see them both making the round of 16 but that would be my dream TOB
lark wrote: "Earthlings vs Tender is the Flesh is the contest to watch for the “Extremely Weird, Bordering On Way Too Gross” TOB slot (both 5 star reads for me). I can’t see them both making the round of 16 but..."Agree 100%. If there was a third along these lines, I'd put all three in the play-in round together and advance TitF.
EDIT: Oh, wait...
Bob wrote: "lark wrote: "Earthlings vs Tender is the Flesh is the contest to watch for the “Extremely Weird, Bordering On Way Too Gross” TOB slot (both 5 star reads for me). I can’t see them both making the ro..."HAHA. I was waiting for someone to try that play-in guess!
C wrote: "Bob wrote: "lark wrote: "Earthlings vs Tender is the Flesh is the contest to watch for the “Extremely Weird, Bordering On Way Too Gross” TOB slot (both 5 star reads for me). I can’t see them both m..."I did these two with Barn 8 for play-in round with a theme of Meaty.
Kip wrote: "I did these two with Barn 8 for play-in round with a theme of Meaty. ..."This should be inscribed somewhere, or perhaps tattooed
Kip wrote: "C wrote: "Bob wrote: "lark wrote: "Earthlings vs Tender is the Flesh is the contest to watch for the “Extremely Weird, Bordering On Way Too Gross” TOB slot (both 5 star reads for me). I can’t see t..."I did the two plus A Certain Hunger for a surprisingly cogent theme: "A Very Particular Dietary Restriction"
This is cracking me up. Would be a crazy play-in round...I just can't imagine subjecting anyone to three books like this in a row! After Earthlings I needed something squeaky clean and semi-fluffy. (I think that's when I started to read We Ride Upon Sticks.)
predictions are officially frozen! now we wait in the morning for the shortlist!
Waiting.......Waiting.......
Waiting........
I keep checking and refreshing their site. I’d have thought it would come out by now!
finally posted! Simms is our big winner with Zach (itsonlyzach), Aaron & Emily only 1pt behind!
prediction sheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...