ARCHIVE - APRIL 2017 (KICKOFF APRIL 3RD) - Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS - DISCUSSION THREAD

[Nick]

Michael wrote: " I believe we began to derail when we switched to conventional, large unit deployments. I was in favor of going into Iraq but would have liked to have seen it accomplished in a different way."

The impression I got from Warrick was that the American's did well militarily with either big or small deployments. They won the war; it was the peace they lost.
There were great a fighting, but when the fighting was done they couldn't provide an adequate police force, or manage tribal disputes, or respect local customs, or any of the boring logistics that would've ensured a stable transition rather than a descent into chaos.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Michael wrote: "Bentley wrote: "Michael I agree and as much as I do not want to see a military conflagration - by letting these folks like Russia, Iran, North Korea and Assad and China get away with everything the..."

I agree that is an interesting detail and also do the gassees become the gassers - where did the chemical weapons and the sarin gas come from if all of the supplies were wiped out or were they?

Also did Iran know about this ahead of time like we think Russia did?

What I see happening is the accusations and the denials are ratcheting up and Iran, Russia, Assad and the United States are at odds forgetting about the 14 other groups including ISIS.

More:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-wa...
http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2017/ap...

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Nick wrote: "Michael wrote: " I believe we began to derail when we switched to conventional, large unit deployments. I was in favor of going into Iraq but would have liked to have seen it accomplished in a diff..."

With all due respect - "It was not the American troops fault nor the fault of any other global troops there - they were told they were leaving and there was nobody to fill the vacuum - the Iraqi police and new military were not that seasoned or ready and the Iraqi regime wanted all of us the hell out of there - Petraeus and McKrystal for starters were darn good at that stuff as probably were the British - they had occupied enough countries and were pros at that - something they did immensely well but we were all told to get the heck out and your Parliament was screaming - so was our Congress and Bush had signed an agreement. It ended poorly with sectarian fighting caused by ISIS stirring the pot and Maliki doing everything humanly possible to botch things up along with his Shiite counterpart Sadr or whatever his name was.

See the Time article:

But ending the U.S. troop presence in Iraq was an overwhelmingly popular demand among Iraqis, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been unwilling to take the political risk of extending it. While he was inclined to see a small number of American soldiers stay behind to continue mentoring Iraqi forces, the likes of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on whose support Maliki’s ruling coalition depends, were having none of it. Even the Obama Administration’s plan to keep some 3,000 trainers behind failed because the Iraqis were unwilling to grant them the legal immunity from local prosecution that is common to SOF agreements in most countries where U.S. forces are based.

So, while U.S. commanders would have liked to have kept a division or more behind in Iraq to face any contingencies — and, increasingly, Administration figures had begun citing the challenge of Iran, next door — it was Iraqi democracy that put the kibosh on that goal. The Bush Administration had agreed in 2004 to restore Iraqi sovereignty, and in 2005 put the country’s elected government in charge of shaping its destiny. But President Bush hadn’t anticipated that Iraqi democracy would see pro-U.S. parties sidelined and would, instead, consistently return governments closer to Tehran than they are to Washington. Contra expectations, a democratic Iraq has turned out to be at odds with much of U.S. regional strategy — first and foremost its campaign to isolate Iran.

Remainder of article:

http://world.time.com/2011/10/21/iraq...
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44998833/ns...

Here is an excerpt from The Washington Times:

Retired ArmyGen. John M. Keane, who advised commanders in Iraq and helped devise the 2007 troop surge, remembers how the U.S. achieved victory by working hand in hand with Iraq’s military to conduct pinpoint strikes. The effort was so effective that the enemy, al Qaeda in Iraq, stopped sending killers into Iraq because they would be exterminated quickly.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2...

More:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/s...

US-Iraq - Status of Forces Agreement:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.–Ir...

The Sad Details on the Multinational force thrown out of Iraq by Iraq - now of course they cry wolf when ISIS was bearing down on Baghdad - Oops - can we get Obama on the phone?

The British tried to get the agreement signed and extended on 5/11 - Nah nothing doing - Iraq said no. Stupid decision on the part of Iraq really. Nothing to do with Obama or the British or NATO not wanting to do the right thing. The US - the Brits - and NATO all tried. On 12/11 - the US and NATO were thrown out and that was the end of it until the US was called because ISIS was bearing down on Baghdad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-N...

Here is the postscript - after everything was under control on 12/11 - when the US and NATO were forced to leave - from 12/11 things did not work out too well for Iraq "on its own" and by June 2014 they are knocking on the US door to conduct air strikes - here is the news report which was on the BBC: (they are taking about rebels in 2014) - the news report dated June 18, 2014 went on:

Government forces (they are talking about IRAQ) are battling to push back ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and its Sunni Muslim allies in Diyala and Salahuddin provinces, after the militants overran the second city, Mosul, last week

Things went to hell in a hand basket because of Iraq's decisions - this had nothing to do with President Obama, the UK, or NATO. And the same person who would not OK the extension was now "sensing danger" - here is a quote from the BBC article -

Grand Ayatollah Sistani's spokesman Sheikh Abdul Mahdi Karbala: "Religious leaders sense a real danger" (shaking head)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-...

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Also these are the numbers of folks from the multinational forces that died for the Iraqi people: - you can see which countries made the ultimate sacrifices To be honest with you in retrospect I do not think that Iraq or its new government showed much gratitude and here we are bailing them out again. Maybe in the world's rolodex when they get in trouble from their neighbors - maybe there will be another number to call rather than the US.

When U.S. forces withdrew in December 2011, 4,804 coalition military personnel had been killed in Iraq. This list, which includes withdrawn countries, lists those deaths.

Coalition fatalities
Country Deaths Reference(s)

United States 4,486 plus a cost of 1Trillion dollars
United Kingdom 179
Italy 33
Poland 23
Ukraine 18
Bulgaria 13
Spain 11
Denmark 7
El Salvador 5
Georgia 5
Slovakia 4
Latvia 3
Romania 3
Estonia 2
Thailand 2
Australia 2
Netherlands 2
Kazakhstan 1
South Korea 1
Hungary 1
Czech Republic 1
Azerbaijan 1

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Mr. Fake News - Vladimir Putin

Today Business Insider reports that Putin is trying to float a bizarre theory about US Intervention in Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters on Tuesday that he had information to suggest that the US was planning to frame Syrian President Bashar Assad for a "false flag" chemical attack on a suburb of Damascus, Syria's capital.

Putin, who made the comments during a joint press conference with Italian President Sergio Mattarella, has slammed the US over President Donald Trump's decision to target an airfield believed to have been used by Assad's military to launch a deadly chemical attack early last week.

Putin was asked specifically about US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's comments on Tuesday morning. Tillerson had said Russia was either incompetent or had failed to hold up its end of the deal to destroy Assad's chemical weapons, and it needed to choose whether to abandon or "maintain its alliance" with Assad.

Tillerson is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow later Tuesday.

"President Mattarella and I discussed it, and I told him that this reminds me strongly of the events in 2003, when the US representatives demonstrated at the UN Security Council session the presumed chemical weapons found in Iraq," Putin told reporters.

He added that Western nations that used to criticize Trump were now supporting his strike on Assad because they were "searching for a common enemy personified by Russia and Syria in order to restore their relations with Washington."

Putin further said that the chemical attack carried out in Idlib province last week was a "false flag" and that he had information that a "similar provocation is being prepared" in a suburb of Damascus.

"We have reports from multiple sources that false flags like this one — and I cannot call it otherwise — are being prepared in other parts of Syria, including the southern suburbs of Damascus," he said. "They plan to plant some chemical there and accuse the Syrian government of an attack."

The "false flag" conspiracy theory echoes an op-ed published by the pro-Assad outlet Al-Masdar News last week arguing that Assad dropping chemicals on civilians "defies any logic" and that "terrorist forces have once again created a false-flag scenario" bearing a "resemblance to the Ghouta chemical weapons attack in 2013."

The attack in Ghouta, Syria, left more than 1,000 civilians dead and resulted in a deal, brokered by the US and Russia, to destroy Assad's arsenal of chemical weapons. The bulk of Assad's "declared" arsenal was shipped out of the country, but American officials "repeatedly returned to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons with intelligence reports on remaining chemical stocks," The New York Times reported.

The Syrian government has denied dropping chemical weapons on civilians, and Russia, an Assad ally, has argued that a Syrian airstrike targeting terrorists in the area accidentally hit a warehouse controlled by rebel forces that had been stockpiling nerve agents. The gases dispersed and killed dozens of civilians when it was bombed, Russia has claimed.

Experts quickly cast doubt on that explanation. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, an expert on chemical weapons, told the BBC last week that Russia's claim was "fanciful" and that it would be "unsustainable" for a nerve agent like sarin gas to spread as the result of a bombing.

Turkey's health minister said on Tuesday that test results confirmed sarin gas was used in last week's attack.

Dan Kaszeta, a veteran of the US Army Reserve's Chemical Corps — the branch of the Army responsible for protection against chemical, biological, and nuclear threats — said an airstrike of the kind described by Russia would "not cause the production of large quantities of sarin."

"Dropping a bomb on the binary components does not actually provide the correct mechanism for making the nerve agent," Kaszeta said. "It is an infantile argument."

US defense officials monitoring Syrian warplanes on military radar say they saw the planes take off and drop the chemicals, according to NBC. And a US official told The Associated Press on Monday that the US had concluded Russia knew in advance about the chemical attack.

Putin told reporters on Tuesday that Russia was "planning to address the corresponding UN structure in The Hague and call on the international community to thoroughly investigate all those reports and take appropriate action based on the results of such a probe."

Admiral McRaven remarks:

http://www.businessinsider.com/attack...

by William H. McRaven

More: And now Mr. Putin with his "fake news"

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-...

Source: Business Insider

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Remember folks aside from current events which we are discussing in relationship to the book - you only do not have to use spoilers if you are discussing the pages that we have read - not the pages coming up which are not included in this week's assignment. The pages that are assigned this week are fine to be discussed with no spoilers - But be careful about other chapters way ahead. Current events are fine too. So anything through the end of Chapter 11 is fine with no spoilers.

Otherwise you have to use the spoiler html.

[Timmy]

It would be great to have a Russian citizen in the discussion. I'm curious what they think about the situation. Putin is very well liked in Russia and I imagine that a lot maybe even the majority of the citizens believe Putins message, I'm just speculating. Michael I think you made a great point about America possibly fading away, it seems like as of now we are too interventionist and too much in the news to fade away but I do see that our power is less dominant over other countries compared to our past. It seems like it's a slow process though. In the case of Egypt, I don't understand how attacking the Copts would further divide Egypt's people. I don't not understand why this was strategic for ISIS. It seems more like a fear mongering tactic and possibly a message to Egypt that they are next on ISIS agenda but I don't not think this was strategic. Maybe I'm just ignorant to the reasoning behind it but it appears like an event like this would only strengthen the bond between Egypt's Copts and Egypt's moderate Muslims.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Timmy - that would stir the pot (in a positive way of course) - I noticed that there was a new member just today who joined from the Russian Federation and I was hoping they might have ended up on this thread to add to the discussion.

Timmy this is just an idea but I think they wanted the Egyptian leader to come down hard and declare an emergency situation etc. to create unrest. And they want to exterminate the Copts. Remember the brave uprisings - Arab Spring - in Egypt and how that ended.

Also you would have to know a bit about the history of the Copts who feel they are the Ancient Egyptians and their heritage and the right to be in Egypt predates Muslims and they are right in that regard.

" Coptic period—also called Egypt’s Christian period—lasted 500 years, from the fourth century to the ninth century C.E., when the majority of Egypt’s population was Christian. The major shift in religion—from the old Egyptian religion to Christianity—occurred in Egypt between 200 and 400 C.E. This change was undoubtedly accelerated when Constantine declared Christianity a legal religion in 313 C.E.

We refer to Egyptian Christians from this period as Copts. (This was not a term they called themselves, nor did they refer to their language as “Coptic.”)

Another shift in religion brought about the end of Egypt’s Coptic period in the ninth century. Arabic-speaking Muslims conquered Egypt in 640 C.E. Although Christianity and Coptic remained the predominant religion and language for several centuries after the conquest, eventually most of Egypt’s population adopted the new religion, Islam, and language, Arabic, of their conquerors.

Egyptians stopped speaking Coptic between 1000 and 1500 C.E. Depuydt estimates that there were few Coptic speakers in Egypt during the 12th or 13th centuries and that by 1500 C.E., nearly everyone spoke Arabic. However, far from going extinct, the Coptic language survived—as did a Christian minority in Egypt—and is still read by the clergy of the Coptic Church today."

Also:

The Coptic Church of Egypt is the earliest Christian church in the world, going back to around 42 AD. According to Bishop Eusebius of Caesarea, as well as Coptic traditions, Saint Mark the evangelist, who wrote the earliest of the four New Testament gospels, was the founder and first bishop of the Church of Alexandria, even before the Church of Rome was established."

Timmy, I think they are very upset that the Copts are more Egyptian for a longer period of time than the Muslims. Also for the longest time - Copts did not want to be called Arabs which they are really not but Egyptians.

More:
http://www.biblicalarchaeology.org/da...
http://www.ancient-origins.net/histor...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-10...
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/...

Note: You are right about moderate Muslims - many many came and gave blood to those recently attacked which was admirable and courageous too.

Source: Bible History Daily, Fox News, ABC, The Guardian

[Timmy]

That's a compelling theory, I think your probably spot on Bentley. I thought they were attempting to create a divided Egypt like Zarqawi did in Iraq, and I just didn't see how bombing the Copts would achieve that. I do understand what your suggesting though, if the goal was civil unrest and Coptic extermination then they succeeded. It will be interesting to see how the Egyptian people respond to this three month state of emergency. I speculate that this will create some major problems in Cairo. Suppressing Egyptian people's rights doesn't seem like too an popular idea with its citizens. In the Arab Spring the world saw the people unite against Mubarak maybe if el-Sisi continues on this path we will see events similar to the ones we saw then. That's a perfect atmosphere for ISIS to come in and take over, when Egypt is vulnerable and tangled in internal conflict.
Maybe that's a long term goal, create political instability and internal conflict. The problem I see with this idea is that I don't believe the US would tolerate ISIS in Egypt. I also don't believe ISIS is foolish enough to believe that Egypt is the next frontier to conquer.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

It certainly is affecting Egypt's economy and ISIS is trying to destabilize Egypt and Sisi's regime - a good article from The Irish Times -

Inflation has gone from 14% to 30% - youth unemployment is now up to 40% (a lot of time on their hands)

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/...

Source: The Irish Times

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Ansar al-Islam

Excerpts

"Faddis knew where every one of the Islamic Terrorists slept - he knew where each gun was, literally down to every machine-gun position and mortar tube. Best of all, none of them knew we were there. He was able to forge ties with Algerians, Moroccans, Pakistanis, Libyans, and other Arab extremists located through Europe. Over several months of tireless links we identified Zarqawi-connected terrorist cells in more than 30 countries."

About Ansar al-Islam:

IDEOLOGY & GOALS
* Salafi
* Sunni

Ansar al-Islam is a Kurdish-Arab Salafi militant organization that seeks to overthrow the Iraqi government and expel all foreign troops from Iraq. In the short term, it seeks to impose strict Shariah Law on those territories under its control, eventually expanding this to a Sunni Islamist state in Iraq. In the longer term, AI supports AQ’s global militant Sunni jihadist ideology, namely the re-establishment of a Muslim caliphate in the Middle East. It was not, however, generally supportive of IS’s proclamation of a caliphate prior to merging with IS in August 2014 because AI felt IS was attempting to subjugate AI under its leadership.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/mapping...

Source: Stanford

Discussion Topics:

1. Is anyone confused by all of the different groups described - all militant and radicalized and how many times they change their names and their affiliations? How fluid are these relationships?

2. Could the experience that Faddis had with Bush account for his searing book on the CIA?

Another book mentioned:

by Peter Baker

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Colin Powell's Speech to the UN



Here it is - video - you may want to watch this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErlDS...

Front Line Article:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/art...

Excellent video - The Secret History of ISIS - FRONTLINE - PBS (watch this if you have an opportunity)

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/fil...

More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/09/pol...
Interview with Al Jazeera:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU6KM...
Colin Powell's Chief of Staff Speaks About Lies Leading to War With Iraq:
NRUN65 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ4pI...
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson responds to Dick Cheney lies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ4pI...
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/29/we_ar...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckjY-...

by Dick Cheney

by George Tenet

by Colin Powell (no photo)

Lawrence Wilkerson
Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Government and Public Policy at William and Mary



Background
Lawrence Wilkerson's last positions in government were as Secretary of State Colin Powell's Chief of Staff (2002-05), Associate Director of the State Department's Policy Planning staff under the directorship of Ambassador Richard N. Haass, and member of that staff responsible for East Asia and the Pacific, political-military and legislative affairs (2001-02). Before serving at the State Department, Wilkerson served 31 years in the U.S. Army. During that time, he was a member of the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (1987 to 1989), Special Assistant to General Powell when he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (1989-93), and Director and Deputy Director of the U.S. Marine Corps War College at Quantico, Virginia (1993-97). Wilkerson retired from active service in 1997 as a colonel, and began work as an advisor to General Powell. He has also taught national security affairs in the Honors Program at the George Washington University. He is currently working on a book about the first George W. Bush administration.

Discussion Topics:

1. We have included a bunch of good videos including Colin Powell's Speech at the UN. Feel free to discuss any aspect of any multimedia or articles I included.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Folks - Nick's post has been moved to the glossary thread (which is a spoiler thread) - anybody can continue the discussion of the post there - but be advised it will be a spoiler conversation in the glossary which is a spoiler thread. This thread is not a spoiler thread. My response is also there on the spoiler thread.

I have reminded folks about the rules of a non spoiler single thread discussion at the beginning of this thread and periodically along the way. And as recently as message 156 I reminded everybody again.

This is a spirited discussion and folks forget I know. And we are talking about current events at the same time.

In the past for all BOTM discussions on the main thread and for all buddy reads (all single thread discussions) we had instructed everybody to put a header in bold with the chapter and verse being discussed and the comment you were posting about that section of the book in spoiler html. Because we are trying to experiment with an approach which is easier for discussion but does not have to use spoiler html the entire way through - the rules are that you do not have to use a header in bold with the entire text in spoiler html for any of your posts which deal with the assigned reading or any pages already assigned in previous weeks.

This discussion has been more difficult because we are also dealing with current events that are evolving. But the one thing we cannot allow on this thread are quotes from the book itself and references to pages that have not been assigned without falling back to our old rules.

So if you want to quote from the book because you have read ahead from pages not yet assigned previously or in the current week's assignment - you cannot do it here but you would have to do it on the glossary thread and all such posts will be moved there as Nick's was - I moved my rebuttal there as well.

If you want to jump into the side conversation on the glossary thread (spoiler thread) and do not mind spoilers from pages not yet assigned - the spoiler thread's link to the glossary is: https://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/...

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

With the post - message 162 - I have completed the deep dive through the end of chapter seven.

The assigned pages are through the end of chapter eleven for this week - through page 150 - remember any quotes from the book need to be only taken through page 150 thus far as of this week.

As we are assigned additional pages to read - then the end page is extended. If you want to discuss the book as a whole or move ahead - this single thread is not the place to do it "especially quoting pages from the book itself from pages not yet assigned". The moderators moves all such posts to the glossary thread (spoiler thread).

This discussion is far reaching so it is hard in a debate and lively discussion and exchange of ideas to not want to throw in extra backup from the book itself but beware - when using the book do not go ahead of the pages assigned - especially quoting from it.

We do want folks to enjoy finding out what the author has to say on their own with the assigned reading.

[Timmy]

I just watched 'The Secret History of ISIS' and Powell's Al-Jazzera interview and something that struck me was the contrast between the description Powell gives of his speech in his Al-Jazzera interview and Nada Bako's description of the speech in 'The Secret History of ISIS'. Bako's recalls Powell's diversion from intelligence backed information to speculative, unproven information. Particularly when he brings up Zarqawi. Bako's explains that Zarqawi's connection to the Iraqi government was unproven and Powell wasn't supposed to discuss it. Somehow it ended up in his speech upward of 20 times I believe. Powell describes the Zarqawi statements as passing comments in 'The Secret History of ISIS'. In his Al-Jazerra interview when he was asked if he regretted the speech he begins by explaining that the information he was presented was backed up by the CIA and he just regurgitated it.
It seems that his statement in the interview was far from the truth. His numerous statements about Zarqawi and WMD's were not backed up by CIA intelligence experts. Its possible that George Tenet and other high ranking officials in the CIA made he believe that but I still find that unlikely. How could Powell be so left out of the discussions that took place like the ones between Cheney and the CIA intelligence analyst? Its seems like either Powell was completely uninformed or that he is blatantly lying to save face, his remarks in the interview deflect the blame from being on him to being on the CIA, congress and other intelligence agencies. I can't imagine that Powell wasn't aware that the statements he was making at the UN were controversial and unproven.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

I think that Bakos along with the Jordanian Intelligence officers were "dying a thousand deaths" when listening to Powell's speech.

It is so interesting watching that speech now. Powell knows it was a blot on his legacy but still I think too he is in denial. I think he was used by Cheney and Bush in that order and there is denial mixed in too. Tenet I believe was steam rolled as well (again Cheney and Scooter). I don't think that Powell is a bad guy and it is true that going back to Reagan days Saddam Hussein was using chemical weapons - they were outlawed already but Saddam was better for peace in the Middle East and for Israel than Iran was so according to Foreign Policy and NPR - a blind eye was turned - tough to find moral high ground isn't it?

Regarding your last sentence - as much as I genuinely like Powell - I tend to agree with you.

It was so interesting watching Colin Powell's speech now - wasn't it?

I also like Tenet's statement after the fact - On April 29, 2007, former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet said on 60 Minutes, "We could never verify that there was any Iraqi authority, direction and control, complicity with al-Qaeda for 9/11 or any operational act against America, period. So why was he sitting attentively behind Colin Powell while Powell delivered the opposite message and did he forget his "slam dunk" remark? Once again there is a lot of blame to go around.

When Tenet was sitting stoically behind Powell at the UN while Powell gave that speech - in my opinion he had squandered his own credibility and so did Powell; and I cannot imagine how Bakos and dedicated CIA analysts felt or the Jordanian intelligence officials felt who knew better and who were risking their lives.

More:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_...
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/govern...


Tenet on left behind Powell at the UN

[Timmy]

I completely agree, Powell seems like a genuine good man and he made a mistake like all of us do but unfortunately it was a big one. I do think that the blame could always be traced back to Bush and Cheney though. I think if it wasn't Powell someone else would've given that speech, he was just a pawn on the chess board for Bush and Cheney. Bush wanted war and he got war. Dangerous to have a president that wants war... Its actually mind boggling when you think about. He was too concerned with legacy and saw 9/11 as an opportunity to make his mark on history, to become one of the great war presidents. So I sympathize with Powell although he deserves some blame.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Very true - people make mistakes all of the time and I think that Powell was a good man too. And it was as they say - a lollapalooza!
And I think that George W wanted to get his licks in because of the alleged attempt on his father's life - we cannot forget those remarks that he has made, etc.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/...

Source: The Washington Post

[Michael]

Bentley wrote: "The other problem Michael is that a lot of the older commanders are still used to fighting a country versus paramilitary type groups, urban and guerrilla warfare."

I agree. In most the military engagements the US has been involved in since the 80's it seemed like the lessons from Vietnam had been largely learned. Let the professional soldiers fight the war and the politicians stay out of it and make policy. However, it seems as the War on Terror has progressed it seems that we are falling back into some of those old habits.

Further to this it is frustrating to think that the US military has a history of strong guerrilla and small unit operations. Early in our history we were the bad guys for not standing across the field and blazing away at the enemy in the open. We had sharpshooters in unseen locations. The Philippines and supporting the resistance in Europe during WWII. In our past we have done well in this area. I think one problem is that the thing that makes an officer a good elite leader and small unit commander seems to keep them from serving at the higher over-all decision making/strategy setting levels of the military.

[Michael]

Nick wrote: "Michael wrote: "It does in the sense that in spite of their different culture and language they were Iraqi citizens. French Canadians are still Canadians even with a different culture and language...."

That is a good point. It is actually the line of thinking that leads to genocide right? They are people living in the country but they create (or are perceived to create) problems so it becomes necessary in the mind of the ruling person or class to be rid of them.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Michael - couldn't agree more.

One other thing that comes to mind - when did folks think that when you are fighting a war against insurgents blending themselves among the civilians in an urban setting purposely that you are not going to have unforetold and heartbreaking casualties. It is impossible I think for these troops to avoid even though they are doing their utmost to save civilian lives - while I might add risking their own - with an increased body count in terms of troops killed -because they are doing everything they can to adhere to very tough policies.

[Savannah]

Bentley wrote: "The folks that they have recruited are marginalized. They have also recruited from families who are middle class but the majority are coming out of the enclaves in various countries and from the di..."

Bin Laden's father was a billionaire. This article in the Washington Post says that ISIS lures both the poor and the prosperous
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2...

I don't see rejection of this world and pursuit of an afterlife as being one that is limited to the poor. Although none of the following resorted to violence, they did reject the things of this world: Plato, Buddha, Jesus, Augustine, Francis of Assisi. Personally, I have known many highly intelligent people who got involved in cults. I think there is a much more complicated human need that is giving rise to this cult called ISIS.

[Michael]

Nick wrote: "Michael wrote: " I believe we began to derail when we switched to conventional, large unit deployments. I was in favor of going into Iraq but would have liked to have seen it accomplished in a diff..."

True. I would argue the peace was declared too soon. The situation would have benefited from maintaining a war footing that ramped down in proportion the indigenous police forces and military being ready to take over the role. We were hungry for peace and wanted it declared. I think one could argue that North Americans are willing to go to bat for others in the world but sometimes we tire too easily and lose patience at key moments in these struggles.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Michael wrote: "Nick wrote: "Michael wrote: " I believe we began to derail when we switched to conventional, large unit deployments. I was in favor of going into Iraq but would have liked to have seen it accomplish..."

Or because everybody was told to leave by the Iraqis themselves which ended up with the debacle that we had in 2014 when they wanted us to do air strikes. ISIS was not taking over Iraq in 2011 when the multinationals had to leave - but they were barreling towards Baghdad when they called the US for air cover - 2 and 1/2 years later.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Savannah wrote: "Bentley wrote: "The folks that they have recruited are marginalized. They have also recruited from families who are middle class but the majority are coming out of the enclaves in various countries..."

No that is also true - not in all cases as we discussed previously on the thread - propaganda in terms of what these are folks are promised - all lies.

No god promises heaven to murderers - they will certainly if you believe in these things - have a straight path to the afterlife - if there is one because these folks will be dead - but heaven is not their destination.

Cults do pull in many intelligent folks who have emotional issues - you are right - that can happen too.

Savannah if you have time - go through this thread and read the attachments etc - also look at the glossary.

[Michael]

Bentley wrote: "Nick wrote: "Michael wrote: " I believe we began to derail when we switched to conventional, large unit deployments. I was in favor of going into Iraq but would have liked to have seen it accomplis..."

Again, I agree. Coalition troops did an excellent job. I would never fault them. Is it possible though, that Iraq would have been less adamant about foreign troops leaving at that time if our troops were not so overtly visible as in the argument I made for using Elite Small Units? I realize that we will never know, but I enjoy the "what if" exercise.

Our political leaders made mistakes, England, Canada, US, etc. We blame a lot of things on those leaders but you make a great point in the above comments Bentley. Iraqi leadership wanted coalition troops gone, couldn't hold the line and then placed blame when ISIS filled the vacuum. As with every situation I think there is lots of blame to go around when things go bad. Likewise, when things go well there are lots of kudos to go around.

I think we are developing an underlying theme throughout our discussions. At multiple levels our relationship building matters. I would say it matters at all levels. It matters with respect to ISIS in that we will not overcome the menace the represent if we cannot dialogue and operate with a sense of global unity because they will simply move to those areas that are either more supportive of the least engaged in finding solutions. Or more to the point where conflict exists in the open and they are not the only target on the radar like the situation in Syria.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Deep dive beginning on Part II for this week's assigned reading - moving on to Chapter 8 - of course feel free to discuss anything without spoiler html through the end of chapter 11 this week.

Otherwise the glossary is always there for spoiler sidebar discussions which are more expansive in terms of the book than where we are right now.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Probably very true - Michael - I agree - that might have helped a bit. But remember they were listening to theocratic arguments - so who knows.

I could not agree more with your paragraph two.

Paragraph Three very true - look at all of the outside influencers stirring the pot.

Excellent post - Michael.

[Michael]

Timmy wrote: "It would be great to have a Russian citizen in the discussion. I'm curious what they think about the situation. Putin is very well liked in Russia and I imagine that a lot maybe even the majority o..."

Good thoughts Timmy. I would say that fading away will be the result more of internal issues and weaknesses rather than our position in the global community.

With regard to the Egypt attacks. These took place on Palm Sunday which for Christians around the globe launches Holy Week leading up to Easter Sunday. My guess would be that Egypt was an easy place to target Christians for the reasons you mention. What was the strategy? If you look beyond geographical borders and see it as an attack on Christians at a key time in the Christian calendar in makes more sense. It creates fear and uncertainty in the minds of Christian communities across the globe at time in the year that is of key importance to that community.

[Timmy]

Michael I believe you made some great points. What areas fulfill the description you describe Michael? What areas do you think are next on ISIS agenda or next to become radicalized? I see their attack on Egypt as a possible hint into their future plans.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Current Events Flash:

Putin meets with Tillerson in Russia as Syria rift deepens
By Angela Dewan and Euan McKirdy, CNN
Updated 12:24 PM ET, Wed April 12, 2017

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/12/politic...

Source: CNN

Note: Lots of Videos and Links

Excerpt from above:

Haley, the UN envoy, said removing Assad from power was a priority, whereas Tillerson said he merely "hoped" the Syrian people would choose to oust Assad and reiterated that defeating ISIS was the US' first priority in Syria.

US Defense Secretary James Mattis has said that while defeating ISIS was first priority, further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would not be tolerated and could warrant additional military action.

"If they use chemical weapons, they are going to pay a very, very stiff price," Mattis told reporters during his first Pentagon briefing as secretary.

[Michael]

Timmy wrote: "Michael I believe you made some great points. What areas fulfill the description you describe Michael? What areas do you think are next on ISIS agenda or next to become radicalized? I see their att..."

What areas fulfill the description you describe Michael?
Not sure what you are actually asking here. Willing to give and answer a shot with a little clarification of the question.

I am not sure how I would answer your question #2. I fear that they will find ways to recruit within some of the African countries that are in famine right now. Hungry people cannot resist very well and if you control the food.... I think this takes us back to some of our discussion earlier and we need to find ways to help in areas of need so that they are not hotbeds for radicalization or recruitment. If my gut feeling is right about Egypt and they begin to generalize their focus rather than focusing on geographical locations and using attacks elsewhere to keep the populations stirred up I thing we are in for a bad storm.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

More News:
Dortmund bus attack: 1 detained, 'terrorist involvement' suspected
By Christina Macfarlane, Laura Smith-Spark and Laura Goehler, CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/12/europe/...

Source: CNN

[Timmy]

Sorry Michael my question was confusing, I was referring to your statement about how they spread and where they spread and was wondering what areas you thought matched your description, you answered the question I was asking. So do you think ISIS is less focused on specific locations and controlling them and more focused on creating general global unrest?

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Just as an FYI - when a post is addressed to a member I do not answer it because it is intended for the member to respond. We are not ignoring you but you are waiting for Michael to respond.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Chapter Eight Deep Dive:

Nada Glass Bakos



More:
http://www.montana.edu/mountainsandmi...

Videos:
A 'Sisterhood' of Analysts Who Helped Find Bin Laden
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS1hh...
Ex-CIA Analyst Admits Bush Admin Wanted Saddam 9/11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLt8B...
Former CIA Analyst, Nada Bakos, Tells how to Target Terrorists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1AFT...
President Obama on the killing of Bin Laden
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNYmK...
ISIS: On the Verge of Defeat or Transforming Itself for the Long Haul?
Nada Bakos, Amanda Kadlec, and Michael Pregent assess U.S. strategy against ISIS and the terror group's capacity to transform
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMG3g...
Michael Pregent: How Iran Fuels ISIS
WestminsterInstitute
Michael Pregent is a former U.S. Army intelligence officer with more than 28 years of experience working security, terrorism, counter-insurgency, and policy issues in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southwest Asia. He served in Desert Shield and Desert Storm, served as a liaison officer in Egypt during the 2000 Intifada, as a counter-insurgency intelligence officer at CENTCOM in 2001, and as a company commander in Afghanistan in 2002.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1ewK...
Shmuel Bar: The Demise of the Arab State, Re-Tribalization, and the Emergence of Jihadistans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGmq9...
U.S.-Egyptian Relations in the Age of ISIS - New
Alberto Fernandez, Nina Shea, and Samuel Taros discuss the security, political, and religious freedom challenges facing Egypt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVe1-...
Late Show: CIA Analyst Nada Bakos with David Letterman – April 29, 2013
https://espionneanalyst.wordpress.com...
Manhunt: The Search for Bin Laden 2013 HD (HBO Full Documentary)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w06I6...

Discussion Topics:

1. What were your impressions of Nada Bakos and how do you think she was feeling after Colin Powell's speech?
2. A great many videos and documentaries have been included - take your time and post your thoughts and questions on them.

Jordanian Embassy Bombing:



More:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_eas...

Sergio Viera de Mello



More:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sérgio_...
http://www.economist.com/node/10717820
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_po...
Sergio Vieira de Mello HBO documentary (2009)
PBS movie - https://youtu.be/ojj4J8ZLLxE
https://youtu.be/ojj4J8ZLLxE
Iraq's US administrator on Un bombing
https://youtu.be/VrlAR_U-A5o

Iraq:
PBS Frontline 2014 Losing Iraq
https://youtu.be/DIR2hEqWHnY

Rumsfeld's War PBS Frontline (2004)
https://youtu.be/9SbK3gg2jjs

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Chapter Nine - Deep Dive

Robert Richer



Robert Richer was the associate deputy director of operations of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, the number two in command of the Operations Directorate, the part of the Agency responsible for human operations overseas, where he served under Jose Rodriguez. He took early retirement in September 2005, after only 10 months on the job, with reports that he "lacked confidence in the agency's leadership" and had "operational issues."

A former Marine, he was with the agency for 35 years, and was the former chief of the CIA's Near East division.

After leaving the CIA, Richer worked for Blackwater USA as vice-president for intelligence. Then in 2007 Richer created Total Intelligence Solutions with Cofer Black and Matthew G. Devost, co-founder and president of Terrorism Research Center, which, according to Richer, "is about delivering evolved intelligence and security solutions to the world's most demanding customers."

Richer is featured in the 2008 bestselling book The Way of the World by journalist Ron Suskind. In the book, Suskind alleges Richer was involved in fabricating the Habbush letter, which appeared to show a link between Al Qaeda and the government of Saddam Hussein. Richer publicly denies several of the book's claims.

Richer still resides in the Washington, D.C. area with his family.
https://www.usna.edu/LeadershipConfer...

by Ron Suskind (no photo)

More:

Habbush Letter:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habbush...
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Rob_Richer

The Way of the World: Ron Suskind on How the Bush Admin Deliberately Faked an Iraq-al-Qaeda Connection and Undermined Diplomacy, Democracy in Pakistan and Iran - Democrat Now -
Interview with Ron Suskind:
https://www.democracynow.org/2008/8/1...

CIA Kidnapped, Tortured "the Wrong Guy," Says Former Agency Operative Glenn Carle
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/41...


After Ron Suskind Reveals Bush Admin Ordered Iraq-9/11 Fakery, House Judiciary Chair John Conyers Opens Congressional Probe
Part II:
https://www.democracynow.org/2008/8/1...

15 Minutes with Rob Richer, former Associate Deputy Director for Operations, CIA
The Cipher Brief - https://www.thecipherbrief.com/15-min...

CIA stepping up cooperation with King Abdullah in the face of internal extremism threats
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/09/08/...

Blackwater’s Private Spies
The notorious mercenary firm is now a one-stop shop for security outsourcing, offering CIA-like services to Fortune 500 companies.
By Jeremy Scahill
https://www.thenation.com/article/bla...

by Ron Suskind (no photo)

The Frontlines of Global Investing
Two former CIA bigwigs bring their expertise to investment research.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB118...

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Discussion Topic(s):

In Chapter Nine: The president wants to know if the agency stands by this report - the one about the beginning of a insurgency in Iraq.

1. What are you thoughts about the president asking the question in the first place and about him being so focused on burying this report?

2. Why was Bremer trying to discredit the CIA report in your opinion?

3. How could a president and vice president send forces into harm's way without writing policy on force protection? Why was security not an important and critical component of the invasion?

4. How problematic was the decision to dissolve the Iraqi army and ban Baath Party member from positions of authority? What problems from your viewpoint did this cause?

5. Why did Rumsfeld as the question after all of the bombings - Define insurgency?

6. Richer has come under a lot of fire for what he said about an Habbash letter etc., but he stated - "The fertile soil was Iraq after de-Baathification. The rain and sunshine were the ineptitude of the provisional authority and US misunderstanding of Iraqis and their culture. All of that allowed Zarqawi to blossom and grow." What are your thoughts about Richer himself (I have posted a lot of material on him, videos, newscasts, interviews)? And then after thinking about the source of this comment - do you feel that what Richer said was valid or not valid - was it more valid or less valid based upon what you know about the parties involved?

7. What was Bremer's role?

8. On pages 122 and 123 - there is a problem that has been created between the Shiites and the Sunnis and Zaydan al-Jibiri - the tribal leader has some biting comments to say about Iraq and America and took umbrage with the fact that Iraq would never be Iraq until Saddam Hussein left - their thoughts were that Iraq had been Iraq for 7000 years and that America was only 200 years old. This smacked of an undercurrent of resentment of the superpower coming into their country and even liberating them after Saddam unequivocally killed them into submission. Very strange situation and a lot of bitterness - certainly not what you would have expected. What are your thoughts?


Paul Bremer (Lewis Paul Bremer III)

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Br...

Source: Wikipedia

[Michael]

Timmy wrote: "Sorry Michael my question was confusing, I was referring to your statement about how they spread and where they spread and was wondering what areas you thought matched your description, you answere..."

Yes, I think that would be an accurate statement of what I am thinking at this time. They are being pushed back on the ground but they will want to maintain a presence and awareness on the radar of populations around the globe. That is why I believe the attack in Egypt was more about the church and Christians in general than specifically being an attack on Egypt.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Discussion Topic:


One of Paul Bremer's paintings

1. Just How Much Should Paul Bremer Be Blamed for the Rise of the Islamic State? What are your thoughts?

More:
http://fpif.org/just-much-paul-bremer...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wor...
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/o...
http://time.com/3900753/isis-iraq-syr...
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/08/02/t...
http://www.businessinsider.com/l-paul...

Source: Foreign Policy in Focus, The Guardian, The Independent, Time, Business Insider

by L. Paul Bremer III (no photo)

by George Packer

[Michael]

Chapter 8: 1. What were your impressions of Nada Bakos and how do you think she was feeling after Colin Powell's speech? In an interview that I saw with her it was apparent that she was pretty frustrated with the whole thing even beyond the Powell speech. I think it was in this chapter that she talks about the efforts to inform the decision makers and the fact that CIA analysts went unheard at various points along the way. It is amazing to me that she and others were able to avoid throwing their hands in the air in futility and giving up; they stayed the course and did not give up.

As a Montana boy...Montana is her home state. If you tick of a Montana girl and she decides to come for you...whatever god you serve is not going to be able to save you! ;-)

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Interesting article

Paul Bremer wants US troops back in Iraq to fight ISIL
Ex-Bush envoy calls on President Obama to order "more vigorous air campaign" against ISIL and deploy 10,000 troops.
Al Jazeera Staff | |

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12...

Bremer, however, denied disbanding the military, saying that when he arrived in Iraq following the appointment by then-President George W. Bush, "not a single unit" of the Iraqi army was standing.

"The question wasn’t to disband. That was a mistake. We should never have used that verb. The question was should we recall the army," he told Head to Head host Mehdi Hassan.

Former US envoy defends Iraq policies

Bremer also defended his order to ban members of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party from government, saying it affected "only one percent" of its membership representing 20,000 people.

"The mistake I made was turning it over to Iraqi politicians" to decide who should be affected, he said.

Discussion Topics:

1. What are your thoughts about Bremer's assertions?

2. Watch the video below and let us discuss Bremer. Any thoughts to begin with?

3. Also take a look at the CNN video - you have to admit that Bremer has a lot of nerve criticizing anybody? What are your thoughts?

Source: Al Jazeera

Video: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/h...

Paul Bremer: Obama is to blame for Iraq
Paul Bremer talks to Erin Burnett about what he thinks are the options for the U.S. military in Iraq to help stop ISIS.
http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2014/...

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Michael wrote: "Chapter 8: 1. What were your impressions of Nada Bakos and how do you think she was feeling after Colin Powell's speech? In an interview that I saw with her it was apparent that she was pretty furs..."

Love your last line about a Montana girl - I guess Bin Laden and company found that out. You know what I find amazing is that all of these CIA folks are coming out in the open even after they have retired. Does that seem safe to you?

I am surprised too that there was not more dissension in the ranks when all of this was going on.

[Michael]

Bentley wrote: "Michael wrote: "Chapter 8: 1. What were your impressions of Nada Bakos and how do you think she was feeling after Colin Powell's speech? In an interview that I saw with her it was apparent that she..."

I agree. You would think that these types of incidents particularly the Powell speech would have caused a lot of outrage. Maybe it is as simple as the fact that CIA is a highly disciplined organization and the venting gets done through proper channels rather than in general.

I also think that CIA attracts people of courage. I am not sure if it is safe or who they need to fear. I think we will see even more twists and turns particularly when we get to the place where classified material is able to be made public.

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Hierarchy - linear chain of command.

Yes I agree about the classified information.

This is an interesting video I came across about the leadership style of Bremer. If he would do this to his "own" people - how would he act to the Iraqis?

Why Paul Bremer failed as a leader
https://youtu.be/see7XcngsLU

Source: Youtube

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

Current News Flash:



US drops largest non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan after Green Beret killed

The U.S. military dropped the largest non-nuclear bomb in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday just days after a Green Beret was killed fighting ISIS there, a U.S. defense official confirmed to Fox News.

The GBU-43B, a 21,000-pound conventional bomb, was dropped in Nangarhar Province.

The MAOB (Massive Ordinance Air Blast) is also known as the “Mother Of All bombs.” It was first tested in 2003, but hadn't been used before Thursday.

For comparison, each Tomahawk cruise missile launched at Syria last week was 1,000-pounds each.

Source: Fox News

[Bentley, Group Founder, Leader, Chief]

The Green Beret:



Afghanistan: U.S. Special Forces Soldier Killed While Fighting Islamic State

http://www.breitbart.com/national-sec...

Source: Breitbart

More:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/mary...

[Leo]

I finally caught up. I had to wait for an interlibrary loan.

Chapter Eight Discussion,
1. What were your impressions of Nada Bakos and how do you think she was feeling after Colin Powell's speech?

My impressions of Nada Bakos are that she was of a very serious temperament and dedicated conviction, because she had not been exposed to the military or politics before her appointment to the CIA as an analyst. Persons with previous military or political experience are often become callused toward or indifferent of the final decisions made by leadership.

Because of this assessment, I think she felt betrayed by her country, leadership, and government; and devastated by the fact that she would likely do more harm to herself and the country if she tried to speak out against the leadership. Of course, she would likely stall her career if she spoke out and may loose her job or face criminal charges for exposing sensitive information. Further, national security could be put at risk, because of the information she released or the damage it would have done to leadership's perception by the world, Americans, and jihadists.

I'll circle back for point 2. when I can peruse the material.

-Leo

[Timmy]

I feel the same as Leo about Bakos. It must have been tough for her, no matter what she did the leadership wanted war.

[Timmy]

Why did the Bush Administration desire war so greatly with Iraq? I have my own theories but I would like to hear everyone else's.