World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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When opposition death and injury rate seems a little higher than usual
I am not sure about some of these, but Magnitskiy may not have been political. He was associated with exposing some quite remarkable corruption, including in the FSB and justice system, with hundreds of millions of dollars taken from the Russian people. The problem there was, expose high-ranking FSB officers and judges and guess what happens? They fight back, and they have the power. The real problem in this case was, in my opinion, extreme corruption, and how can you overcome that when almost everyone in power is corrupt?
Ian wrote: "The real problem in this case was, in my opinion, extreme corruption, and how can you overcome that when almost everyone in power is corrupt?..."Not many successful examples indeed and half of the world (and I'm being modest here) struggle with the issue.
I remember businessmen reported back that Georgia (from Caucasus not from US) became 'clean' after many reforms, like the entire police force being fired in one day and later replaced by new guys. Read somewhere that people's trust in the police was 5% in 2005 and became almost 80% after the reform...
I guess firing the entire staff is probably the only way, but it does raise problems with finding competent replacements. Although I suppose the corrupt are not very competent anyway, so maybe that argument is not very good.
Ian wrote: "I guess firing the entire staff is probably the only way, but it does raise problems with finding competent replacements. Although I suppose the corrupt are not very competent anyway, so maybe that..."The pattern seems to work... In Kiev they tried to replicate and recruited some young, motivated dudes to form a new unit to patrol the streets and traffic and disbanded old units. Each has camera attached to the uniform and the feedback about their work is really positive.. However higher in the chain of command the replacements weren't as radical, from what I hear....
I saw this interview with Frank Serpico while he was living in Europe. He said: give me five minutes in any police department, and I can tell you who is corrupted and where the corruption is. Corruption is all over the world. I experienced it in my life and my father. My father said: if you want to succeed, you have to be willing to play the game.
GR wrote: "I saw this interview with Frank Serpico while he was living in Europe. He said: give me five minutes in any police department, and I can tell you who is corrupted and where the corruption is. Cor..."
We need more Franks and let them in into government institutions..
Nik wrote: "GR wrote: "I saw this interview with Frank Serpico while he was living in Europe. He said: give me five minutes in any police department, and I can tell you who is corrupted and where the corruptio..."I don't think so. They have very, very, very short lives.
GR wrote: "I don't think so. They have very, very, very short lives..."80 years old Serpico seems to refute that a little -:)
Well, right now, those who want to denounce or protest corruption in Russia tend to either disappear, get killed or be arrested and jailed on false charges. Frank Serpico was lucky to be a policeman in the U.S.A.. If he had been a cop in Russia, or in most of Eastern Europe, he would have probably ended in a ditch, or in a lake/river while wearing concrete shoes.
Any of our Russian members out protesting the corruption yesterday? Was it as big an event as our media made it out to be, or was it downplayed in Russia? Anything happen from it, or did the government largely ignore it to avoid it blowing up?
I'm not reporting from there, but it looks like it was certainly downplayed in the Russian media and heavy-handed on the ground.Mass protests, Ukrainian style, is probably the biggest fear in Moscow, therefore they try to show zero tolerance and thousands of people were apprehended and sentenced for short detention.
Browsing the web, my impression - Most of reports on demonstrations and demands come from foreign media, while Russian media offers mostly explanations that the protesters were offered money if apprehended, that the actual number of arrests is lower than that of arrested at Brooklyn bridge in 2011 and so on..
The reported 60k participants is probably not that much when spread between 82 cities, even if we double that number, but allowing for a relatively 'low-key' pretext - 'corruption', which everyone knows very well there exists, it reflects a certain level of dissatisfaction. Moreover, for those maybe seeing it as a drill for a 'stronger' pretext, it probably shows that social media is quite capable of bringing people to the streets there, especially - youngsters.
I doubt anyone there would want to hint that protesters 'might have a point' and thus don't expect much reaction of the authorities.
More interesting is the question, why is battling corruption not a priority? One possibility is the top is so corrupt they are busy defending their positions. Another is the enforcement agencies are so corrupt it wouldn't work. Maybe they need someone like "Iron Felix" who knew how to get things done.
Both your possibilities may be correct. After all those years they've built a strict hierarchy working usually like a Swiss clock, where anyone falling out or going against may experience considerable problems
Here it goes again. Must be the climate or corona: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-...As opposed, so thoughtful of the last dictator of Europe to keep his opposition in well secured facilities lest risk their health....
Navalny should have guessed by now that he should only eat and drink stuff that he has prepared. Not sure, though, Nik, where you get the last dictator from. I would have thought Lukashenko would at least qualify as a dictator?
Ian wrote: "Navalny should have guessed by now that he should only eat and drink stuff that he has prepared. Not sure, though, Nik, where you get the last dictator from. I would have thought Lukashenko would a..."Yes, the last dictator of Europe is Lukashenko trade mark, like the Little Rocket Man. I was referring to Belarus' efforts at safekeeping the well-being of opposition by keeping them behind the bars...
Navalny supposedly hoodwinks one of the perpetrators and makes him confess: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/eu...
I listened to part of it in Russian. Sounds quite convincing and complements Bellingcat's findings.
Some may say here reality beats fiction
My guess is an SVR agent is going to be in real trouble
Ian wrote: "My guess is an SVR agent is going to be in real trouble"FSB
The news I heard claimed Navalny spoke to an SVR agent, but who knows how close to the source he was. FSB, whatever, I still guess trouble.
While Trump is signing his farewell presidential pardons, that's the real thing: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1... - a life-time immunity
Nik wrote: "While Trump is signing his farewell presidential pardons, that's the real thing: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1... - a life-time..."Now I wonder which President he had in mind when he signed that? :-)
Wow, that's dangerous for a society, but not uncommon for rulers throughout history.
Apparently four of the pardons are for contractors who killed a number of Iraqi civilians. More details unclear.
Ian wrote: "Nik wrote: "While Trump is signing his farewell presidential pardons, that's the real thing: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1... -..."I wonder what is coming for him. There is a reason he did this, something is rotten.
There are rumors Putin suffers from advanced Parkinson and his inner circle urges him to retire... Some media explain the life-time immunity law from that angle, i.e. that Putin might step down. But then, who's gonna be the heir? Unless one is prepared by Putin, a power-struggle may be devastating..
I have seen some reasonably recent news clips, and no sign of advanced shaking, so maybe the rumours are wrong, at least on "advanced".
Ian wrote: "I have seen some reasonably recent news clips, and no sign of advanced shaking, so maybe the rumours are wrong, at least on "advanced"."Maybe "advancing", but it's all rumors, so can be anything or nothing at all :)
If you have ever seen someone with advanced Parkinsons, I can assure you it is very obvious (and highly desirable to avoid it, not that you have any choice) :-)
Having three out of five newest members coming from Russia, it may be a reflection of our growing popularity or that FSB has finally paid attention to our existence:) Anyhow, first poisoned, now jailed, corona must look like a walk in the park for Alexey: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/eu...
It is not clear to me why Putin is so against Alexey. According to a Russian who posted elsewhere, he is not considered by most as a real politician who can get things done, but he can draw crowds. Why not let him draw crowds; sooner or later he would have to put up policy or proof of something that most Russians don't already know, or at least strongly believe. Putin's better strategy might be to just let him do whatever.
Because large groups of people can be very dangerous things to deal with. This guy for whatever reason represents trouble to Putin.
Maybe, but Putin's actions are giving him far more oxygen. Before he was an irritant. Now he is in danger of becoming a major feature.
Ian wrote: "Maybe, but Putin's actions are giving him far more oxygen. Before he was an irritant. Now he is in danger of becoming a major feature."I wonder if Putin is in trouble and this guy is just a symptom.
I think Putin's biggest problem is he is ageing, and as everyone realises that the fight for who replaces him will start. Alexey is probably just bringing the problems closer to being to a head. I gather Putin is appreciated for recovering from the Yeltsin disaster, and there is probably fear of going back to it, but Putin has his problems, and Alexey is magnifying them, but also probably magnifying the other side of the problem - do those who understand and matter want someone like Alexey in control? They face the problem of succession, which sooner or later becomes a problem for all dictatorial style of government. The Russians have yet to learn the lessons of ancient Rome.
Yeltsin unleashed the oligarchs who stole power and resources from the former communist elite - all those Black Sea Dacha's didn't miraculously appear after Yeltsin and the Soviet Union was not admired for its Human Rights RecordGorbachev had tried to chane but was overtaken by events and severely weakened by the coup
Putin brought stability and at first went one route i.e. G8, Support against Iraq then went another way when he realised all the money was going to the Oligarchs now masquerading and businessmen.
The Oligarchs are still there but they all have to kowtow to Putin and makes sure he gets his cut. If you don't or otherwise displease him then prison or plutonium follow now moving onto nerve agents.
Meanwhile the mess of Iraq and Afghanistan allowed military and foreign opportunities to regain USSR influence. cooperation went and Russia turned back to cold war approach as it was shunned by the West
Now Putin is ageing but I think he has a few years left. His approach is now like any dictator. Hold onto power surround yourself with lackeys, kill or imprison your enemies, threaten everyone else (including foreign powers)
Can't see it changing- not enough people willing to die, The Russian revolution was not bloodless another one won't be either.
Philip wrote: "Yeltsin unleashed the oligarchs who stole power and resources from the former communist elite - all those Black Sea Dacha's didn't miraculously appear after Yeltsin and the Soviet Union was not adm..."Not sure I agree. To say "Yeltsin unleashed the oligarchs..." implies it was a deliberate act on Yeltsin's part. I think he was just too lazy, he let his financial advisor(s) who had no real experience of "free markets" loose, and the oligarchs grabbed everything. I don't think Yeltsin planned that - I think he was simply drunk at the wheel.
I also think Gorbachev did not really know what he wanted, or if he did he had no idea how to go about it. So he failed.
I think Putin started off probably trying to accommodate the West, but he soon found out that the US was fairly anti-Russian and was doing what it could to irritate him, like moving troops up towards the Russian border, rather than having a neutral zone. He definitely made the standard of living improve for Russians for the first ten years or so, but he has done nothing to stop the flow of Russian wealth to exit with the oligarchs, which means the Russian economy remains, with the odd exception, second world.
II think his major problem, and Russia's, is that when he lets go, the oligarchs, etc, will once again strip Russia of what little it has. He sees the future a little like the decay of Constantinople - everyone stripped it of what it had so eventually it collapsed. The likes of Navalny have picked up on corruption as a problem, but it is not really the worst - the worst for Russia is the totally indifferent economy, and the lack of wealth to fix it. Most people will say that is the sanctions working, but I don't think that is right. If the sanctions were lifted, the oligarchs would continue to plunder and the West would plunder. In principle, the sanctions, in the long terms, should help because they should force the Russians to get up and do things themselves, but I don't see that happening. (Of course, not seeing is also a problem with not being close enough to see.)
The main character in Nik's Rise of an Oligarch posed a question that I've wondered for a while...
The violence attached to the financial corruption in the former Soviet Union is far worse than in the West, but is it actually any more dishonest than our system of lobbyists, old boys' networks, etc, etc?
The violence attached to the financial corruption in the former Soviet Union is far worse than in the West, but is it actually any more dishonest than our system of lobbyists, old boys' networks, etc, etc?
Beau wrote: "The violence attached to the financial corruption in the former Soviet Union is far worse than in the West, but is it actually any more dishonest than our system of lobbyists, old boys' networks, etc, etc?..."In the West the system was polished and disguised for centuries, while in former USSR it's crude and in-your-face, acutely lacking finesse. But it's getting there, slowly. If 25 years ago most disputes were settled with the help of a machine-gun, now it's more through buying necessary local court decisions, or overburdening London courts.
Let's not forget, that Putin is 100% Yeltsin's creation. Yeltsin picked an anonymous KGB officer and fast-tracked him through head of the FSB, prime-minister's position all the way to the president, while Putin reciprocated by not going after his inner circle afterwards.The history hitherto didn't favor liberal leaders, like Khrushyov, Gorbachyov and Yelstin, under which the stability of the system was seriously undermined. Unripe civil society, lack of respect towards institutions and clear preference of individual ambitions can definitely result in severe turbulence in the process of transition of power. The question of Putin's heir becomes quite actual. "Domestic terrorism" may acquire a whole new meaning.
Witnessing Ukraine's revolts and recent uprising in Belarus, they try to quell anything of the sort early on and therefore crackdown with full force even at smallest signs of disobedience. For them Navalny, with his disdain and defying of authority, is like a coronavirus, activating all the antibodies of the strict hierarchy of fear and subordination.
Nik wrote: "Let's not forget, that Putin is 100% Yeltsin's creation. Yeltsin picked an anonymous KGB officer and fast-tracked him through head of the FSB, prime-minister's position all the way to the president..."The crackdowns show the dictatorships for what they are
Beau wrote: "The main character in Nik's Rise of an Oligarch posed a question that I've wondered for a while...The violence attached to the financial corruption in the former Soviet Union is far worse than in..."
Good point.
What an alleged dictator wouldn't do to arrest an opposition figure? Faking bomb alert, sending MiG to intercept a civilian plane with 170 people on it and forcing it to land? Easy. But maybe it was all real and Lukas was extremely lucky, how would I know.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
I can think of someone who was not exactly lucky. Looks like time for Vlad to do something useful.
Nik wrote: "What an alleged dictator wouldn't do to arrest an opposition figure? Faking bomb alert, sending MiG to intercept a civilian plane with 170 people on it and forcing it to land? Easy. But maybe it wa..."Russian girlfriend also arrested and taken off plane. NATO now involved as well as EU. This one could escalate - but probably won't
So, it appears that Lukas saved Vilnius from a hamas bomb exploding over it: https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/23/r...Wonder hypothetically, if Assange or Snowden were flying over territories where the US have influence, whether the plane carrying either could be ordered to land to arrest them. What do yo think?
The US would be more likely to persuade the country where the plane landed to arrest said annoying person. For those who do not believe me, how about the woman from Huawei arrested in Canada, and they still don't seem to know what to do with her (or has something been decided and kept secret to avoid general embarrassment? (Or have I been asleep at the wheel??)
Nik wrote: "So, it appears that Lukas saved Vilnius from a hamas bomb exploding over it: https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/23/r...Wonder hypothetica..."
if he was in American airspace and that badly wanted, yes the plane would be grabbed. The better question would be if he was passing through American airspace or in international air space......
Litvinenko, Magnitskiy, Politkovskaya, Nemtsov are probably just random, unconnected instances proving nothing.
With Magnitskiy mother's advocate Gorokhov falling out of the window this week and Russia's runaway ex-Duma member Voronenkov gunned down in Kiev, the abnormal death and injury rate may spur some questions. Let's try to have them answered, while investigators investigate.
My guess - being in opposition may just be not healthy for Russians, N. Koreans and some other nationals, because opponents become too nervous and less cautious and thus prone to accidents.. Not sure, democracy is for everyone.