World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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Will robots replace humans and what will humans do?
There is a very strong possibility that this organic world will be replaced by artificial intelligence AI or a tech world.
Aiden wrote: "This is what my novel The Benevolent Deception is about."Then it's well hidden and doesn't jump out from the blurb -:)
But now that you mention, I see how it's possible -:)
Nik wrote: "Then it's well hidden and doesn't jump out from the blurb -:) But now that you mention, I see how it's possible -:) ."
I had lots of fun writing this one, coming up with the the things an AI could do in our modern world. :)
I don't know. As you said, it is a very common trope, but what would be the existential goal of those intelligent robots after they would have supplanted/eliminated humans? Simply exist? Humanity has grown through the ages mostly because of curiosity, ambition and the wish to learn more about the World. Unless intelligent robots acquire true emotions, they will only create a stagnating world for themselves.
20% of jobs currently done ny humans will be done by machines within the next 35 years. Very depressing but not exactly doomsday. I still foolishly believe there is a limit to AI.
I am sorry I can not compute or understand your question. O.o beep...bop...hoop..
Justin wrote: "I am sorry I can not compute or understand your question. O.o beep...bop...hoop.."
SEND THAT ROBOT TO THE RECYCLING BIN!
SEND THAT ROBOT TO THE RECYCLING BIN!
What will we do with our freed time? Spend it at the unemployment office, of course!
I have more than one book with AI, but the commonality that I have is that given enough effort we can make machines the can do all sorts of things, and we can even eventually make machines that are self-aware, but the one thing that will elude machines is creativity. They can come to solutions to problems, but they do it the hard way, i.e. evaluating probabilities. We have machines now that can beat the best chess players that way. But I doubt they will ever be capable of genuine abstract thinking, not anything that requires anything based on emotional responses. The machine could make life much easier by removing the need for humans to be in any dangerous environment, and ultimately I suspect (as I have in one book) basically all physical work will be done by machines.That raises a real problem - how to ordinary people live? There will be need for some creativity, but that will occupy only a very tiny fraction of the population. We very badly need to rethink our economic structures BEFORE this descends on us. My two cents worth, anyway.
Members of the European Parliament are to vote on robots' legal status - and if a kill switch is requiredhttp://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38...
and a Japanese insurance firm replaces 34 staff with AI:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38...
my mom was a medical transcriptionist--this was skilled labor because you had to learn medical terminology to transcribe doctor's reports on tapes into computer files) and in the 1990s her whole department was eventually replaced by doctors and nurses simply writing in standard phrases for medical conditions.
the drive for profits and thus efficiency through automation and/or simplification of tasks is relentless.
Nik wrote: "Yeah, it's a popular science fiction trope, but we see it gradually happening everywhere: less 'hand-made', more 'machine-made'. Every here and there we hear stories of pilots caught asleep, while ..."Nik wrote: "Yeah, it's a popular science fiction trope, but we see it gradually happening everywhere: less 'hand-made', more 'machine-made'. Every here and there we hear stories of pilots caught asleep, while ..."
The future is bleak unless you are in the following categories listed.
Everything will be taken over by robots. Society will be placed in one of 3 groups, which was reported by Look Magazine in 1961, what life will be like in the next century:
1. Ruling Class: Political, Military, Police
2. Intellectual Class: Educators, Philosophers, Arts, Entertainment, Sports
3. Working Class: Computer Programmers, Sciences, Technology, Research
The Laboring Class will no longer exist. They will be taken over by computers, robots and androids.
The family will no longer have a cohesive roll in society. A person will chose an android to satisfy he/she's needs. Children will be raised by androids. They will have ultimate love and interest in the child, which humans lack. Intelligence will be a micro-chip implanted into each human to fulfill a function of society.
Medicine will be taken over by Technologist and Pharmaceuticals.
Those who are not creative will be placed among the worthless and utilized in the military services to be expendable until all social problems are rectified. There will always be problems, but they will be minimal.
The movies "Solent Green" and "Logan's Run" comes to mind.
I believe what will happen in the future, after all is rectified, a new human species will emerge from genetic engineering. The old species will die out, and the world (I hope) will be the Promised Land. That is a bases of a good story.
The stories by Arthur C Clarke, 2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequel, would be the forerunner. What comes after would be the challenge. Anybody game?
Regarding Alex's Mom, I am sorry but I think it is a real advance that doctors carry round ipads and fill out their treatment prescriptions etc on those because it saves an awful lot of misunderstanding. That comment is not only mine - it is also my daughter's, who is a consultant at Wellington hospital.A common answer is that such automation allows more to be done, and that is true. The problem is, it increasingly finds more to do from the skilled. The unskilled worker is in for a real hard time in the future.
The fear from technology isn't new and Luddites opposed the machinery already in 19-th century..Share Ian's concern that current trend requires thinking in advance of both societal organization, distribution of resources, etc. Letting things run on their own is easiest, but the consequences might be disastrous.
The 3-d printers alone are capable of putting out of work millions of people.
GR's outline may well be realistic -:)
Michel wrote: "I don't know. As you said, it is a very common trope, but what would be the existential goal of those intelligent robots after they would have supplanted/eliminated humans? Simply exist? Humanity h..."Hi Michel,
A genuine AI would be self directing. Hence it would be unpredictable.
But survival is probably the number one directive.
You don't need emotions to establish a goal.
In one of my novels, I raised the issue that Graeme was concerned with. A genuine, self-aware AI will not only have survival as a number one directive, but to make as sure as possible of that, it will try to self-replicate. This is the problem the great mathematician John von Neuman raised a long time ago - if that happens, and is not interrupted at an early stage, the world, or maybe many worlds, are covered with self-replicating machines.
I think it is blown out of proportion to tell you the truth. Sure, it'll have some devastating effects on nearly all aspects of our lives, but who's to say that's good or bad? I think it just depends on your perspective.Right now, the world is structured carefully to make people work for money, in order to eat and live (a thing that resembles slavery so much that disgusts me). But the introduction of robots I think is the natural evolution of mankind.
Humanity would not be excluded, but will take a higher position I believe (that is, if allowed to) and we will be reduced to minimal physical activities while we make the robots do all the hard work. I'm actually more excited than anything, this will force us to reboot the economy of the world entirely even though I think it is just barely working right now.
Life in its entirety, will change with the introduction of robots, and a part of me just wishes I could live to see how it all would work. I have to make the point that you should never underestimate the survival instinct of humanity as well. Sure, robots will have the upper hand (in case of a robot rebellion) but I think someone will always figure out a way to stop them... that is before a giant meteor hits and the whole planet goes boom.
M.G. wrote: "I think it is blown out of proportion to tell you the truth. Sure, it'll have some devastating effects on nearly all aspects of our lives, but who's to say that's good or bad? I think it just depen..."Rebooting the world economy has to start with those few who own the robots not walking away with all the money. That really requires the end of the capitalist system, and that won't go easily.
As for stopping robots, as I argued in one of my novels wherein androids got out of control, it is tolerably easy, but as usual there is a price to pay unless the robots were well-designed in the first place.
M.G. wrote: "I think it is blown out of proportion to tell you the truth. Sure, it'll have some devastating effects on nearly all aspects of our lives, but who's to say that's good or bad? I think it just depen..."It all depends on who gets the bad or the good.
M.G. wrote: "I think it is blown out of proportion to tell you the truth. Sure, it'll have some devastating effects on nearly all aspects of our lives, but who's to say that's good or bad? I think it just depen..."The more optimistic opinion is certainly welcome. As we discuss something forward-looking, it's as legit guess as any.
I'm less afraid about robots getting out of control, but I wonder if today for example you replace all construction workers, miners, production workers, assemblers and so on, that's hundreds million people - what they will all do? You need a solution here and Ian's comment re capitalist system sounds grounded. Not sure it needs to come to an end, but it'll need to transform and adapt, otherwise will have hunger riots transforming into civil wars.
What happened to Detroit is not an inspiring example but a lesson to be learnt of what happens in the wake of massive layoffs...
Nik wrote: "M.G. wrote: "I think it is blown out of proportion to tell you the truth. Sure, it'll have some devastating effects on nearly all aspects of our lives, but who's to say that's good or bad? I think ..."As I said, take a look a "Solent Green", "Logan's Run", unless the world curbs population growth, it won't happen. And I believe that is a possibility and a reality. Take a look at the ingredients in our prepared foods. The chemicals that are used as preservatives and enhancements maybe disguised to control birth or anti social behavior. On the other hand, it is probably why so many have a reaction to prepared foods, e.g., Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorders.
Don't eat processed foods, you'll notice the difference. I just came back from visiting my kids for 2 weeks, and eating out every day, I got a tight feeling inside me. Being back, it's now been 2 weeks and that feeling is now just leaving. I suspect the government and the food industry is up to something clandestine. The future is here.
Actually, G.R., one of our problems may be the fixation on cleanliness and hygiene. I am not suggesting we live in dirt, however the concentration on having germ-free environments means the immune system has nothing to do, so it finds something, and that is acting on our own bodies, so we get a serious increase in allergic responses, etc. When I was very young, the concept of an allergic reaction was almost unheard of, apart from one unfortunate that had asthma. Now it is surprisingly common.
It's always about hygiene. If we paid attention to hygiene, we wouldn't have all the diseases we have.
Yes, but my point is if we get too obsessive about it, we degenerate into a mass of allergies, which are almost as bad, and in some cases where you get anaphylactic (spelling??) shock, worse.
Ian wrote: "Actually, G.R., one of our problems may be the fixation on cleanliness and hygiene. I am not suggesting we live in dirt, however the concentration on having germ-free environments means the immune ..."Are these personal observations and conclusions or some study or theory? And where is the balance: hygiene is aimed to help contracting and spreading viruses and infections, while immune systems lacks 'drills'?
Automation is often seen as a threat, and the effect it has on job elimination. But at the same time, automation is what has allowed for mass production, which has led to the single-greatest expansion in material well-being the world has ever seen. Between the 18th century to the 20th, more people were lifted out of poverty in industrialized nations than ever before, and this carried with it immense social implications - such as the destruction of feudal society, the rise of the middle class, the mobilization if the working class as a political entity, and the creation of the welfare state.This has continued today, with extreme poverty being cut in half on a global scale in the past twenty-five years alone. Thanks to technological progress coupled with a globalized economy and social programs designed to life people out of poverty, the fastest-growing economies today are all in Asia, South America, and sub-Saharan Africa.
The next steps, which involve making the automation self-directing, self-replicating, and even intelligent is throwing up a lot of red flags - mainly from people who worry it will turn against us. However, the smart money is on how this will further revolutionize society. How will an estimated 9 to 11 billion people live when the means of production are entirely automated an run by AIs? Poverty and deprivation are likely to drop off entirely once those machines start running, but people will also be living with mass unemployment.
I'd like to believe in Matt's more optimistic approach. I do believe that technology and automation may enable feeding of 9-11 bil people, housing and all. Not sure current system will care to find a solution to have most benefit from technological progress.Say, today you are 50 years old with 30 years of experience in a certain field. If this field goes automated, you are fired the next day, eventually bank forecloses your property and you can die starving or barely surviving - nobody cares. Not a place where you worked, not most (some do) countries in the world. Some of those will be able to acquire new profession, but I'm not sure how many.
If the beneficiaries of automation remain reluctant in sharing extra profits from automation with those thrown off-board, the system may collapse. Like great depression. For a manufacturer to have a strong consumers' base, consumers need to have a source of income..
Still prefer to like Matt's prognosis and hope it all goes well -:)
Nik wrote: "Ian wrote: "Actually, G.R., one of our problems may be the fixation on cleanliness and hygiene. I am not suggesting we live in dirt, however the concentration on having germ-free environments means..."There have been medical studies on this, although I have not actually seen them. My comments come from a discussion had with my daughter, who is a consultant at Wellington hospital, and has seen the evidence. The argument is not to give up hygiene, but not go overboard. You need some relatively harmless bacteria, but make sure you stay away from the rather virulent ones.
Nik wrote: "I'd like to believe in Matt's more optimistic approach. I do believe that technology and automation may enable feeding of 9-11 bil people, housing and all. Not sure current system will care to find..."Well, keep in that there is plenty of room for things to go wrong. For one, people could react very stupidly to the rapid change, which in a lot of ways we're already seeing. There is the argument that recent events - like Brexit, the rise of quasi-facist political parties in the EU, the election of Trump - are a result of rapid change and uncertainty. Basically, people are reacting to a world they increasingly don't understand by retreating into familiar things like nationalism, isolationism and xenophobia.
One thing though, you mentioned the "beneficiaries of automation". Historically, that's been the many and not just the few. And it was not because of altruism, but the fact that when wealth is produced in vast amounts, its impossible to hoard it. It was also because the expansion of production (necessary by the mid-19 century to early 20th) necessitated that producers pay their workers a decent wage and ensure decent hours.
Matthew wrote: "It was also because the expansion of production (necessary by the mid-19 century to early 20th) necessitated that producers pay their workers a decent wage and ensure decent hours. ..."And unions too necessitated them...
I hope wealth will spread or trickle down. We have two tendencies: automation substituting human labor and outsourcing of production to cheap wages and lax ecological supervision locations...
But producers of t-shirts in Malaysia don't want to sell them in Malaysia, they want to sell them in the States, where they are priced much higher. The market shrinks if a lot are unemployed and barely make ends meet. Arguably, the income/wage difference/gap will be closing (and it does in fact in industries with high demand), so the migration of production may become ineffective at some stage. I see how in high-tech, for example, they were outsourcing programming to Eastern Europe, but the now the gap is inessential, so they outsource to India instead, but the salaries in Bangalore are growing too, I imagine.
In my turn, I as a consumer don't want to pay the price of my local store, when I can order through internet a much cheaper stuff directly from China. So in some cases - the production is in China, because it's cheaper and the consumption is there too for the same reason. Don't know who benefits from this -:)
As internet sales grow exponentially each year, I don't see much future for shopping malls, for example.
For simple work it's not a problem to re-qualify: today you wash dishes in McDonald's, tomorrow you can clean Yankee's stadium. Done many jobs pre-uni and while uni myself. But when all or most of those jobs are wiped out, to re-qualify from physical to intellectual it's trickier. No one wants to pay for human labor. In car shops for example - they rarely fix things these days, they mostly replace aggregates.
Ideally, the market should regulate itself - one would study or seek jobs in the industry with high and steady demand, but when there are sudden rather than gradual changes - I'm not sure the market can overcome the shock easily.
The problem with 'jobs' or alternative income to 'jobless' seems real, but hopefully solvable..
Maybe all will become indie authors -:)
Nik, all becoming Indie authors is not going to solve their financial woes, unless everyone knows something I don't.
Ian wrote: "Nik, all becoming Indie authors is not going to solve their financial woes, unless everyone knows something I don't."Exactly, but they might not know -:)
Here are some great talks on Artificial intelligence from TED. https://www.ted.com/playlists/310/tal... SPOILERS FOLLOW
A lot of these discussions formulated the basis of what I had AIs do in my novel The Benevolent Deception. The tricky bit was coming up with scenarios for AIs that are far, far smarter than we are, and with motivations that aren't anthropomorphic.
If a none carbon entity evolves to have human characteristics, it won't be any different than carbon entities. Everything is made up of atoms and molecules, why should it be any different. Reproduction would be done differently.
No, the reason why carbon is unique is that it forms four chemical bonds with the four other most common elements that are about the same strength, which means there is a huge range of different molecules that can be made. As an illustration, silicon simply would not work because as soon as a silicon compound reacts with something like water, the extremely strong Si - O bond forms and that won't change at all. You end up making rocks!
Who is to say that AI couldn't live? It's just another dimension we are unfamiliar with.
Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence will begin to replace many common jobs in the next 5-10 years. In the short-run, people will need to focus on managing change as well as the creative and artistic aspects. In the long run, were screwed.
By the way, if you want to read a very quick (less than 4,500 words) and free short story on runaway AI - go here - http://kevkuhn45.wixsite.com/bigkuhna...
I think Iain M Banks came up with the best solution for the future with AI in his Culture series. Money doesn't exist. We all have access to unlimited resources. There are no laws. AIs do all the work. People have fun. If you haven't read him, he is highly recommended. The Culture is a prototype for a world that would be worthwhile striving for.
Kevin wrote: "By the way, if you want to read a very quick (less than 4,500 words) and free short story on runaway AI - go here - http://kevkuhn45.wixsite.com/bigkuhna..."
Interesting story Kevin. I think you've hit on one of the big questions about AIs, that if we create something that is smarter than us, we really have no idea what it will do, even if we program it to be benevolent to humanity. How it interprets our well being might be completely alien to us.
Interesting thought. Benevolent in the frame of reference of a machine might be anything - forcing hydraulic oil in to keep the joints in good order.
Aiden wrote: "We all have access to unlimited resources. ..."I want it now -:)
Nik, Iain Banks wrote the best series on utopia I've ever read
Will humans be disbanded once the machines take over?
That depends on the machines. Given that they operate only on logic, and imposed premises, have a guess!
Is it a given that they'd operate only on logic?
Yes. At least for now, they work on mathematics.
What happens to humans - we could become pets, bred and groomed as curiosities, and paraded at shows for the kudos of our AI owners....
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
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Use of Weapons (other topics)
Matter (other topics)
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'Creative' part might be a bit problematic for machines, but we might get used to 'machines' creativity' after all.
So what do you say: are we treading towards complete robotic substitution in performance of most tasks and if yes - what are you gonna do in the freed time then? -:)