Predicting Who Will Write the Next Great Novel is Difficult. Determining Who Will Not is Not

[Jim]

It is very difficult to predict which of today's popular authors may eventually be included within the ranks of the literary elite who have produced a timeless classic. I personally believe that Kazuo Ishiguro, Stephen King and J.K. Rowling might be considered viable candidates.

It is very easy to determine which authors will probably not be remembered a hundred, or even twenty, years from now. They are the ones who focus upon quantity rather than quality, mass producing novels, each with just a slightly altered version of the same predictable plot and outcome. Next are the writers whose work is just a thinly disguised rehash of another author's popular bestseller. Then there are those who publish their work before first acquiring the knowledge and honing the skills required to produce a technically well written, articulate and thought provoking story.

Hundreds of thousands of unknown writers are striving to become commercially successful. Very few will succeed. Even fewer will produce a classic that will withstand the test of time, but it has been proven that it can be done, so do it!

[Jan]

My vote would go to Khaled Hosseini and Joydeep Roy-Bhattacharya. But then that may be a matter of who I'd LIKE to see there.