TM: Prediction Time (For those who are 12% or less through the book)

[Eric]

Do some quick match on your page vs how many pages your version has so you're not cheating. If you're approximately 12% in - what's your prediction about whether our protagonist makes it back to Earth alive? (or at least on an Earthbound spaceship)

As I commented in my "Are You Worried?" topic, Weir is clearly setting up our protagonist for some level of failure with how well he's done so far.

So do you think he makes it? Dies? Or something more tragic - dying days before someone gets there or the day they get there or making his way to them?

Right now, given how scientific Weir has been and balancing that against the forces of narativium (Discworld reference), my money is on the protagonist not making it. But perhaps to keep it from being too dark - he's able to communicate that he was alive. Or someone finds his journal and sees that he was able to survive.

[Willeyeoney]

I have a horrible feeling that the author has laid a huge part of the plot wide open.

[bookthump]

I feel like he might slowly go insane. Right now, he is very cognizant of his situation and is using the maths and the sciences to improve his chances for survival, with nothing but Three's Company reruns to entertain him, he might start going a little batty. Plus, if any little thing goes wrong - some of his plants die, an EVA suit fails, an oxygen tank leaks - all of his calculations go out the window and he'll have to start all over. That kind of constant mental exertion will be exhausting, putting him at risk for a mental breakdown.

If he survives to be rescued by Ares 4, he'll be a nutcase. Or, Jeebus, what if Ares 4 lands on a completely different part of Mars? To survive that long only to be completely passed over...

[Eric]

good guess, Daniel. I think it's a strong possibility too

[Paolo]

I´m not really seeing the mental instability creep in. This book is a lot of fun but as accurate as it may be on the technical side, it´s not a good portrayal of what a person´s state of mind would be after being alone and without communication on another planet for an extended period of time.

I have been giving Mark pretty much a 100% survival chance since the very beginning of the book.