“But the point is one of probability: we all have a lifetime’s experience of the laws of nature not being broken, and we also have a lifetime’s experience of people saying things that are not true. If someone says, “I saw a dead man come back to life,” most of us would consider it more likely that that someone is wrong, or lying, than that they actually saw a dead man come back to life. So, says Hume, we should ignore that testimony as irrelevant.
But Price, newly armed with Bayes’ theorem, wanted to say that rare events do happen, and that even if you’ve seen the sun rise or the tide come in a million times, you can never be physically certain, in his phrase, that it’ll do so the next time”