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Annie Duke

“In the exercise I do of identifying your best and worst decisions, I never seem to come across anyone who identifies a bad decision where they got lucky with the result, or a well-reasoned decision that didn’t pan out. We link results with decisions even though it is easy to point out indisputable examples where the relationship between decisions and results isn’t so perfectly correlated. No sober person thinks getting home safely after driving drunk reflects a good decision or good driving ability. Changing future decisions based on that lucky result is dangerous and unheard of (unless you are reasoning this out while drunk and obviously deluding yourself). Yet this is exactly what happened to that CEO. He changed his behavior based on the quality of the result rather than the quality of the decision-making process. He decided he drove better when he was drunk.”

Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
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