“This chart contrasts predictive and prospective thinking: Predictive Thinking Prospective Thinking Mindset Forecasting, “We expect …” Preparing, “But what if …” Goal Reduce or even discard uncertainty, fight ambiguity Live with uncertainty, embrace ambiguity, plan for set of contingencies Level of uncertainty Average High Method Extrapolating from present and past Open, imaginative Approach Categorical, assumes continuity Global, systemic, anticipates disruptive events Information inputs Quantitative, objective, known Qualitative (whether quantifiable or not), subjective, known or unknown Relationships Static, stable structures Dynamic, evolving structures Technique Established quantitative models (economics, mathematics, data) Developing scenarios using qualitative approaches (often building on megatrends) Evaluation method Numbers Criteria”