Rob Root answers “Suppose, in a lottery, with 10 million...”

Ric Demian asked this question about How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking:

Suppose, in a lottery, with 10 million combinations of numbers, with tickets at $1, jackpot at 6 million, how much would you have to spend to be sure to win 6 million?

Rob Root $10 million, which is key to understanding the passage where Ellenberg takes apart Adam Smith's polemic against lotteries early in the chapter, "What …more$10 million, which is key to understanding the passage where Ellenberg takes apart Adam Smith's polemic against lotteries early in the chapter, "What to expect when you are expecting to win the lottery." To be certain you will win, you need to purchase all 10 million combinations, but in doing so, you are spending more than the $6 million you are now sure to win. In other words, you have guaranteed that you will lose $4 million dollars.(less)

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How Not to Be Wrong

by Jordan Ellenberg

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