Isn't It Obvious? Revised Edition

by Eliyahu M. Goldratt

earlier we were discussing some changes Caroline wanted to make in the new computer system. I really think we have to stop introducing new changes.” “I know that my department needs this feature. It’s not a question of maybe,”

“We can’t keep making changes. The endless so-called improvements have been causing dysfunction for over a year now.

“Your starting point is that people resist change. That resistance to change is an integral part of people’s character. Do you believe that this is actually the case?”

never forget that the perception of risk is the dominant factor in judging whether the change is good or bad.

People resist your suggested changes not because they resist change but because on that particular suggestion their judgment is that it’s not beneficial enough or the risk is too high.”

listen to their arguments and you have a chance to change their mind.

If you stick to your belief that they are programmed to resist, you’ll be a very bad manager because your alternatives narrow down to giving up or to using force.”

If we want to avoid mistakes

Caroline, I have learned the hard way that I’m not John Wayne. When I shoot from the hip, I usually hit my own foot.”

ding

Allowing opportunities to impact strategy ensures that the outcome will be a zigzagging strategy.

ding

Don’t be distracted by golden opportunities; too often they turn out to be gilded traps.”

Dad, you just persuaded me that I am simply unsuited to sit in your chair.”

ouch

All we need is the daily sales, which is the merchandise that left the shop, and that’s the merchandise we have to bring back from the warehouse.

It’s the difference between being a strategist and a tactician,

if the prices of buildings go up in one area, then the value of the company’s property in that area goes up, too. And these accountants register it as profit, although no real money was made.”

shortages are the prime reason for people walking out of your store without buying a thing.”

“I always knew that convincing people to change was a hard task. But I thought that if I place enough emphasis on the positive impact of the change, it would suffice.

what I’m talking about is my tendency to concentrate on the plus side of my suggested change and not considering enough the minus side, especially the minus side for other functions of the company.

You may be accustomed to shortcuts, being the sonin-law and all,

petty

there is another aspect that causes people to embrace a change, an aspect we hadn’t thought of—the minus side involved in not changing.”

Now, suppose that where we stand there are alligators. We might decide to climb the mountain regardless of the size of the pot, even when it is quite painful.”

there must be some reason for their resistance.

the plus in not changing.”

She would shave offevery cent possible, even if she had to order more than she had planned to.

“Let’s separate between the problems and the solutions. The problems are the shortages and the surpluses, the solutions are holding more inventory and praying for a better forecast.” “Well put,” Paul agreed.

My only explanation is that when a person is struggling with a persistent problem, when whatever he is trying doesn’t work, then protective mechanisms will come into play. After a long while these problems are no longer problems in his eyes; they are just facts of life that he has to live with.”

We must first expose the wrong connections that led them to believe that the solution lies in holding more inventories and in continuing to pray for a better forecast.

Right now I could show you numerous cases where one store has a shortage of an SKU, while another store within the region has much too much of that same item.

“the sawtooth becomes more similar to this.” Paul drew another pattern that oscillated much more frequently near, yet never reaching, the zero line. Satisfied, the three looked at each other.

the stores should order immediately upon consumption.

‘yes, buts’

without waiting for an answer, continued.

we had them agree as to what the core problem is, then we made them realize the wrong connections, and only then we exposed our solution.”

It’s so easy to fall into the trap of assuming that people just resist change

“Not another computer system. I am at my wits’ end with new computer systems. We’ve hardly finished sorting out the mess the last one made. I am not sure it was worth the whole ordeal. As it stands now, we’ve lost money on this damned software and its bugs.

The last thing I need is for the IT people to start on another new project!”

alligators

mermaid?

expedite them sooner.”

pot of gold

this was a good business arrangement for both sides.

It was possible to react much faster to shortages.

It was also possible to considerably shorten the production lead time

You’ve clearly been thinking outside the box.”

“If it is embarrassingly obvious, it must be right.”

“I think it would be better if I showed you all the logic, the cause and effect connections I made, so you can check my reasoning.”

I can move to expose the wrong connections that blocked us from seeing the direction of the solution.

“The forecast is the worst at the store level, and we can’t change that. According to chaos

Since we have about ten stores per region the aggregation causes the forecast at the regional level to be about three times more accurate than the forecast of each store. This is fundamental statistics. And the forecast at the central warehouse level, which aggregates the demand from all ten regions, is three times better again.”