Here a “top-level” population is one that wasn’t created by anyone (except perhaps by a cosmic god). “A few,” “many,” and “most” can be understood along the lines of the numerical simulation argument in chapter 5: e.g., at least one in ten, one thousand, and 99 percent. The case for premises 2 and 3 goes through roughly as before. Premise 2 follows from mathematical reasoning, and premise 3 seems to follow at least if we are typical intelligent beings. If one had made this argument a century ago, the main objection would presumably have been: Why believe the first premise? That is, why believe
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