If so, then there’s less than a 50 percent chance that there are sim blockers in the first class, and less than a 50 percent chance that there are sim blockers in the second class. It follows (given plausible assumptions) that there is less than a 75 percent chance that there are any sim blockers at all. Given that it’s at least 99 percent likely that either there are sim blockers or we are sims, it follows that the chance that we are sims is at least 25 percent or so.
