We can then lay out the argument as follows. This version of the argument is far from perfect (I’ll give my preferred version toward the end of the chapter), but it’s a good starting point that helps to bring out the underlying issues. At least one in ten nonsim populations will each create a thousand sim populations. If at least one in ten nonsim populations will each create a thousand sim populations, then at least 99 percent of intelligent beings are sims. If at least 99 percent of intelligent beings are sims, we are probably sims. ______________________ So: We are probably sims.
