Graham

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Next, you want to set goals for the intermediate years. In year 1 and 2, you might argue there’s probably zero revenue since the team will be focused on product development. Then year 3 becomes about solving the Cold Start Problem, and only in year 4 does it get to meaningful revenue. The company might hit $1 million/year in revenue that year. Then to extrapolate out, the marketplace product needs to grow from $1 million to $200 million over year 4 to 10—in other words, 266x over a year period.
The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
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