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evaluate strategic options.”
discusses these assessments separately, one by one,
maximizes the value of information by keeping the dimensions of the evaluation independent of each other. “The board discussions we usually have look a lot like unstructured interviews,”
“Using a structured approach will force us to postpone the goal of reaching a decision until we have made all the assessments.
draw up a comprehensive list of independent assessments about the deal.
make the list short, comprehensive, and composed of nonoverlapping assessments.
provide an objective, independent evaluation on each of the mediating assessments.
the team’s analysts should try to make their analyses as objective as possible.
based on facts—
outside view whenever...
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base rate,
reference class,
relative judgments are better than absolute ones.
assessments should be as independent of one another as possible,
to represent the truth. If it is complicated, so be it—it often is.”
When excessive coherence is kept in check, reality is not as coherent as most board presentations make it seem.
To their surprise, the board members found that
this practice was highly valuable.
estimate-talk-estimate method, which combines the advantages of deliberation and those of averaging independent opinions.
reduced the danger of social influence and information cascades.
more convergence than in the initial round.
people reject schemes that tie their hands and do not let them use their judgment.
the procedure applies to recurring decisions, too.
Comparative judgments become much easier in the context of a recurring decision.
use this shared experience as a reference class.
final decision, delay intuition, but don’t ban it.
implementation of several of the decision hygiene techniques we presented in the preceding chapters: sequencing information, structuring the decision into independent assessments, using a common frame of reference grounded in the outside view, and aggregating the independent judgments of multiple individuals.
Content is specific; process is generic.
Leaders in business and in the public sector are usually entirely unaware of noise in their largest and most important decisions.
Wherever there is judgment, there is noise, and we propose decision hygiene as a tool to reduce it.
options are like candidates.”
Judge Marvin Frankel
informal, intuitive noise audit,
uncovered unjustified disparities in the treatment o...
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Much of this book can be understood as an effort to generalize Frankel’s arguments and to offer an understanding of...
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In insurance, recruitment and evaluation of employees, medicine, forensic science, education, business, and government, interpersonal noise is a major source of error.
noise-reduction efforts often run into serious and even passionate objections.
The rules in question may seem stupid and even cruel, but they may have been adopted for a good reason: to reduce noise (and perhaps bias as well).
No one is marching under a banner that says “Algorithms now!”
sentencing guidelines are animated “by a fear of the exercise of discretion—by a fear of judging—and by a technocratic faith in experts and central planning.”
In their view, “no mechanical solution can satisfy the demands of justice.”
decision hygiene includes diverse strategies for reducing noise, and most of them do not involve mechanical solutions;
costs of eliminating noise might exceed the benefits.
analysis of costs and benefits suggests that noise is costly, eliminating it might produce a range of awful or even unacceptable consequences for both public and private institutions.
seven major ob...
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reducing noise can be ...
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some strategies introduced to reduce noise might introduce errors of their own.
would not be noisy, but they would be wrong.
we want people to feel that they have been treated with respect and dignity, we might have to tolerate some noise.
noise might be essential to accommodate new values and hence to allow moral and political evolution.
