Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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Read between July 31 - August 28, 2024
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stable pattern:
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source of pattern noise.
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occasion noise.
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As one review summarizes it, “the relationship between job performance and ratings of job performance is likely to be weak or at best uncertain.”
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raters might not in fact attempt to evaluate performance accurately but might rate people “strategically.”
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quality of the feedback, but system noise remains high and still accounts for much more variance than does the performance of the person being rated.
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noise-reduction strategy of aggregation.
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360-degree feedback systems
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primary purpose is to measure much more than what a boss sees.
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The rise in popularity of 360-degree feedback coincided with the generalization of fluid, project-based organizations.
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the use of this feedback system has created its own problems.
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proliferation of multiple corporate objectives and constraints added dimensions to job descriptions, many feedback questionnaires became absurdly complex.
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this overly complicated approach is not only useless but also pernicious.
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has exponentially increased the amount of time devoted to providing feedback.
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In this case, the reduction of noise may not be worth the cost—
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360-degree systems are not immune to a near-universal disease of all performance measurement systems: creeping ratings inflation.
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introduce some standardization in ratings.
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forced ranking.
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forced to abide by a predetermined distribution.
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Many companies adopted it, only to abandon it later, citing undesirable side effects on morale and teamwork.
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rankings are less noisy than ratings.
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approach in panel B has two advantages.
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rating all employees on one dimension at a time
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structuring a complex judgment into several dimensions.
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attempt to limit the halo effect,
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ranking reduces both pattern noise and level noise.
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rankings mechanically eliminate level noise.
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noise reduction is the main stated objective of forced ranking,
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same mean and the same distribution of evaluations.
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forced ranking
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often backfires.
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confusion between absolute and relative performance.
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expectations have been defined ex ante and in absolute terms.
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possible that most employees really do meet high expectations.
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The upshot is that a system that depends on relative evaluations is appropriate only if an organization cares about relative performance.
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forcing a relative ranking on what purports to measure an absolute level of performance, as many companies do, is illogical.
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not just cruel; it is absurd.
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something close to a normal distribution.
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distribution may not be reproduced in a smaller group,
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the composition of teams is not random.
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Inevitably, forced ranking in such a setting is a source of error and unfairness.
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the fatal flaw of forced ranking is not the
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“ranking,” but the “forced.”
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choice of the scale mechanically adds noise.
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understatement to say that the results have been disappointing.
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the cost of performance evaluations skyrocketed.
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performance ratings as they are most often practiced demotivate as often as they motivate.
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radical option of eliminating evaluation systems altogether.
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few have even made their evaluations numberless, which means that they abandon traditional
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picking the right scale. The aim is to ensure a common frame of reference.
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