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cognitive reflection test (CRT),
attempt to measure how likely people are to override the first (and wrong) answer that comes to mind
The CRT is seen by many as one instrument to measure a broader concept: the propensity to use reflective versus impulsive thought processes. Simply put, some people like to engage in careful
CRT can be seen as a measure of people’s propensity to rely on slow, System 2 thinking rather than on fast, System 1 thinking.
People with a high need for cognition tend to be less susceptible to known cognitive biases.
Adult Decision Making
Competence scale, which measures how prone people are to make typical errors in judgment like overconfidence or inconsistency in risk perceptions.
Halpern Critical Thinking ...
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seem to make better judgments in life:
the need for cognition was reliably associated with higher performance.
“actively open-minded thinking.” To be actively open-minded is to actively search for information that contradicts your preexisting hypotheses.
“Allowing oneself to be convinced by an opposing argument is a sign of good character.”
humility of those who are constantly aware that their judgment is a work in progress and who yearn to be corrected.
two general principles emerge from this brief review.
First, it is wise to recognize the difference between domains in which expertise can be confirmed by comparison with true values
some judges are going to be better than their equally qualified and experienced peers.
People often tend to trust and like leaders who are firm and clear and who seem to know, immediately and deep in their bones, what is right.
How people think is also important.
two approaches to debiasing measurements
Ex post, or corrective, debiasing
(the planning fallacy)
The Green Book recommends applying generic adjustment percentages for each type of project.
Ex ante
broad cate...
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modify the environment in which the judgment or deci...
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nudges, as they a...
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Other nudges work on different aspects of choice architecture.
A different type of ex ante debiasing involves training decision makers to recognize their biases and to overcome them.
boosting;
for example, by teaching them statist...
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teaching people to avoid biases is hard.
bias that we have seen in one place is likely to materialize in other places.
nontraditional teaching methods
approaches have one thing in common: they target a specific bias, which they assume is present.
This often-reasonable assumption is sometimes wrong.
forecast by analogy
loss aversion,
status quo bias,
In any situation of some complexity, multiple psychological biases may be at work, conspiring to add error in the same direction or offsetting one another, with unpredictable consequences.
planning fallacy is a sufficiently robust finding to warrant debiasing interventions against overconfident planning.
direction of error is not known in advance.
effect of psychological biases...
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resulting in syst...
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We suggest
real time.
bias blind spot.
imagine a decision observer,
not an easy role to play,
some organizations it is not realistic.
do not recommend that you make yourself a self-appointed decision observer.
