Prelude to Foundation (Foundation, #6)

by Isaac Asimov

What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos. That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities.”

In this book, at least, we never learn exactly how Seldon will make his predictions possible, In fact, he vehemently asserts that he truly doesn't think it's possible.

I have shown that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful.”

“How can something be possible, yet not practical?” “It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal, the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them.”

“What do you mean ‘psychohistorical’?” “I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as ‘psychohistory.’ ”

“Let me test you, man. Suppose I asked you to use your mathematics to tell me whether I would some day be assassinated? What would you say?” “My mathematical system would not give an answer to so specific a question, even if psychohistory worked at its best. All the quantum mechanics in the world cannot make it possible to predict the behavior of one lone electron, only the average behavior of many.”

The technology is so interrelated that to snap one of the interconnections is to cripple the whole.

He wanted his name associated with antigravity, they say, because he was concerned with his place in history, as old men of no great attainments frequently are.

“Of course. I’m not fond of the Emperor or of the Imperial institutions in general, but I don’t have any substitute for it. I don’t know what else will keep the peace and I’m not ready to let go until I have something else in hand.”

Seemingly a rebuke to anarchy and an admission that humans must follow some authority or risk destroying themselves.

Admirals resist mothballing ships and having themselves reduced in rank simply because there is less for them to do. So the credits still go—unproductively—to the armed forces and vital areas of the social good are allowed to deteriorate. That’s what I call decay.

Pertinent observation on the military-industrial complex. Year after year the American defense budget swells more, even as social good fall apart: bridges, roads, schools, power lines, the list is endless and these are only material goods! Forget about healthcare, daycare, housing, etc. But at least the military is well-equipped!

My field of specialization is the mathematical analysis of social structure.”

“There’s so much knowledge to be had that specialists cling to their specialties as a shield against having to know anything about anything else. They avoid being drowned.”

“How harmful overspecialization is. It cuts knowledge at a million points and leaves it bleeding.”

But you see, if Trantor is going to attract Outworlders to Trantorian universities, it has to give them something in return for uprooting themselves and going to a strange world with an incredibly artificial structure and unusual ways.

“And what Trantor offers in exchange is not only the promise of a position with high status, considerable power, and money, of course, but also freedom. While students are having their education, they are free to denounce the government, demonstrate against it peacefully, work out their own theories and points of view. They enjoy that and many come here so that they can experience the sensation of liberty.”

“I imagine,” said Seldon, “that it helps relieve pressure as well. They work off all their resentments, enjoy all the smug self-satisfaction a young revolutionary would have, and by the time they take their place in the Imperial hierarchy, they are ready to settle down into conformity and obedience.”

“There is too much history and there is too little of it that is told.”

(If something quite accidental can easily become viewed as a tradition and be made unbreakable or nearly so, thought Seldon, would that be a law of psychohistory? It sounded trivial, but how many other laws, equally trivial, might there be? A million? A billion? Were there a relatively few general laws from which these trivial ones could be derived as corollaries?

“Undesired knowledge is useless knowledge,” said Dors.

“What do you mean by ‘supernaturalistic’?” “The obvious. A belief in entities that are independent of natural law, that are not bound by the conservation of energy, for instance, or by the existence of a constant of action.”

“Were there times in past history when religion was more prominent than it is today?”

“There’s a bit of your psychohistory, Hari. Rule number 47,854: The downtrodden are more religious than the satisfied.”

For instance, religions tend to accumulate wealth when successful and that eventually tends to distort the economic development of a society.

If our customs are rigid, it is because we are mere millions surrounded by billions. Somehow we must mark ourselves off so that we precious few are not lost among your swarms and hordes. We must be marked off by our hairlessness, our clothing, our behavior, our way of life. We must know who we are and we must be sure that you tribesmen know who we are.

Similar to Orthodox Jews, perhaps?

would have to check with Dors. But it seemed so likely to him that on every world the earliest histories were medleys of self-serving heroisms and minidramas that were meant as morality plays and were not to be taken literally.

Bare skin in public somehow loses some of its sexual quality. As I said, it’s the hiding from view that is crucial.

Human beings are a single species spread all over the Galaxy, so they must have originated somewhere. At least that’s the popular view at present. You can’t have independent origins producing the same species on different worlds.”

many legends of primitive origins assume extended life spans for early leaders. If they’re pictured as unbelievably heroic, you see, it seems natural that they have life spans to suit.”

“The tales of robots probably originate from one master legend, for the general theme is the same. Robots were devised, then grew in numbers and abilities to the status of the almost superhuman. They threatened humanity and were destroyed. In every case, the destruction took place before the actual reliable historic records available to us today existed. The usual feeling is that the story is a symbolic picture of the risks and dangers of exploring the Galaxy, when human beings expanded outward from the world or worlds that were their original homes. There must always have been the fear of encountering other—and superior—intelligences.”

“What’s a temple?” “Another archaic term of uncertain origin. It means all the things you asked about—significance, past, myth.

Why, he wondered, did so many people spend their lives not trying to find answers to questions—not even thinking of questions to begin with? Was there anything more exciting in life than seeking answers?

Was there any particular hurry to life, after all?

“Asceticism among a ruling class—except for public show—is very rare. Put that down in your notebook for psychohistorical aphorisms.”

know that it isn’t unusual to have one group of people look down upon another group. There are peculiar and almost ritualistic hatreds that have no rational justification and that can have their serious historical influence. It’s too bad.”

There is always the tale of an original world and a golden age. There is a longing for a supposedly simple and virtuous past that is almost universal among the people of a complex and vicious society. In one way or another, this is true of all societies, since everyone imagines his or her own society to be too complex and vicious, however simple it may be.

“I can’t bear to hear a human being spoken of with contempt just because of his group identification—even by other human beings. It’s these respectable people here who create those hooligans out there.”

“The Imperial forces must keep their hands off, but they find that they can do much even so. Each sector is encouraged to be suspicious of its neighbors. Within each sector, economic and social classes are encouraged to wage a kind of war with each other. The result is that all over Trantor it is impossible for the people to take united action. Everywhere, the people would rather fight each other than make a common stand against the central tyranny and the Empire rules without having to exert force.”

Besides, the tyranny that now exists is actual. That which may exist in the future is merely potential. If we are always to draw back from change with the thought that the change may be for the worse, then there is no hope at all of ever escaping injustice.”

Was there a time when technology had been so primitive that energy poverty was possible?

Three Laws of Robotics that are traditionally put into words—or once were, long ago. They are these: “ ‘One. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. “ ‘Two. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. “ ‘Three. A robot must protect its own existence, as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.’

“Kiss me again, Hari. —Please.”