Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos

by M. Mitchell Waldrop

Kauffman felt that it might ultimately be possible to apply these ideas far beyond the economy. “I think these kinds of models are the place for contingency and law at the same time,” he says. “The point is that the phase transitions may be lawful, but the specific details are not. So maybe we have the starts of models of historical, unfolding processes for such things as the Industrial Revolution, for example, or the Renaissance as a cultural transformation, and why it is that an isolated society, or ethos, can’t stay isolated when you start plugging some new ideas into it.” You can ask the same thing about the Cambrian explosion: the period some 570 million years ago when a world full of algae and pond scum suddenly burst forth with complex, multicellular creatures in immense profusion. “Why all of a sudden do you get all this diversity?” Kauffman asks. “Maybe you had to get to a critical diversity to then explode. Maybe it’s because you’ve gone from algal mats to something that’s a little more trophic and complex, so that there’s an explosion of processes acting on processes to make new processes. It’s the same thing as in an economy.”