How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need

by Bill Gates

Green Premiums to replace diesel with zero-carbon alternatives Fuel type: Diesel Retail price per gallon $2.71 $5.50 (advanced biofuels) Zero-carbon option per gallon $2.71 $9.05 (electrofuels) Green Premium 103% 234%

Green Premiums to replace jet fuel with zero-carbon alternatives Fuel type: Jet fuel Retail price per gallon $2.22 $5.35 (advanced biofuels) Zero-carbon option per gallon $2.22 $8.80 (electrofuels) Green Premium 141% 296%

Green Premiums to replace bunker fuel with zero-carbon alternatives Fuel type: Bunker fuel Retail price per gallon $1.29 $5.50 (advanced biofuels) Zero-carbon option per gallon $1.29 $9.05 (electrofuels) Green Premium 326% 601%

Use electricity to run all the vehicles we can, and get cheap alternative fuels for the rest.

A/C is on the way. In some countries, most houses have air-conditioning, but in others it is much less common. In the coming decades, the countries at the bottom of this chart will be getting both hotter and richer, which means they’ll be buying and running more A/C units. (IEA)

By 2050, there will be more than 5 billion A/C units in operation around the world.

the International Energy Agency projects that worldwide electricity demand for cooling will triple by 2050. At that point, air conditioners will consume as much electricity as all of China and India do now.

all the electricity used by buildings—for air-conditioning as well as lights, computers, and so on—is responsible for nearly 14 percent of all greenhouse gases.

Green Premiums for installing an air-sourced heat pump in selected U.S. cities City Cost of natural gas & electric A/C Cost of air-sourced heat pump Green premium Providence, RI $12,667 $9,912 -22% Chicago, IL $12,583 $10,527 -16% Houston, TX $11,075 $8,074 -27% Oakland, CA $10,660 $8,240 -23%

we’re better off pursuing two strategies at the same time: First, going all out to deliver zero-carbon electricity cheaply and reliably; and second, electrifying as widely as possible—everything from vehicles to industrial processes and heat pumps, even in places that currently rely on fossil fuels for their electricity.

So if you want a measuring stick for which countries are making progress on climate change and which ones aren’t, don’t simply look for the ones that are reducing their emissions. Look for the ones that are setting themselves up to get to zero. Their emissions might not be changing much now, but they deserve credit for getting on the right path.

Technologies needed Hydrogen produced without emitting carbon Grid-scale electricity storage that can last a full season Electrofuels Advanced biofuels Zero-carbon cement Zero-carbon steel Plant- and cell-based meat and dairy Zero-carbon fertilizer Next-generation nuclear fission Nuclear fusion Carbon capture (both direct air capture and point capture) Underground electricity transmission Zero-carbon plastics Geothermal plastics Pumped hydro Thermal storage Drought- and flood-tolerant food crops Zero-carbon alternatives to palm oil Coolants that don’t contain F-gases

Technology needed

every national government needs to do three things. First, make it a goal to get to zero—by 2050 for rich countries, and as soon after 2050 as possible for middle-income countries. Second, develop specific plans for meeting those goals. To get to zero by 2050, we’ll need to have the policy and market structures in place by 2030. And third, any country that’s in a position to fund research needs to make sure it’s on track to make clean energy so cheap—to reduce the Green Premiums so much—that middle-income countries will be able to get to zero.

We should spend the next decade focusing on the technologies, policies, and market structures that will put us on the path to eliminating greenhouse gases by 2050.