Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen

by Dan Heath

Surely we’d all prefer to live in the upstream world where problems are prevented rather than reacted to.

Expedia’s executives were not oblivious. They were aware of the huge volume of calls. It’s just that they were organized to neglect their awareness.

focus is both the strength and the weakness of organizations.

The specialization inherent to organizations creates great efficiencies. But it also deters efforts to integrate in new, advantageous ways. In upstream ways.

we tend to favor reaction: Because it’s more tangible.

Tremblay told Nature. “If you ameliorate the quality of life of women, it will transfer to the next generation.”

Downstream efforts are narrow and fast and tangible. Upstream efforts are broader, slower, and hazier—but when they work, they really work.

That’s just how it is—so no one questions it. That’s problem blindness.

As a teacher, if you accept that your job is to support students, not appraise them, it changes everything.

To succeed upstream, leaders must: detect problems early, target leverage points in complex systems, find reliable ways to measure success, pioneer new ways of working together, and embed their successes into systems to give them permanence.

The seed of improvement is dissatisfaction.

upstream work is chosen, not demanded.

lack of ownership is the second force that keeps us downstream.

When people’s resources are scarce, every problem is a source of stress.

Focus is both an enemy and an ally. It can accelerate work and make it more efficient, but it puts blinders on people.

The path to “the world avoided” is a difficult one because of the barriers we’ve seen: problem blindness (I don’t see the problem), lack of ownership (That problem is not mine to fix), and tunneling (I can’t deal with that right now).

the first step, as in many upstream efforts, was to surround the problem

Surround the problem with the right people; give them early notice of that problem; and align their efforts toward preventing specific instances of that problem.

I knew data would be important for generating insights and measuring progress, but I didn’t anticipate that it would be the centerpiece of many upstream efforts.

groups do their best work when they are given a clear, compelling aim and a useful, real-time stream of data to measure their progress, and then… left alone.

“You can’t solve a dynamic problem with static data.”

Success comes when the right things happen by default—not because of individual passion or heroism.

The postmortem for a problem can be the preamble to a solution.

The reason to house the homeless or prevent disease or feed the hungry is not because of the financial returns but because of the moral returns. Let’s not sabotage upstream efforts by subjecting them to a test we never impose on downstream interventions.

In order to move the needle on someone’s health, you need to open up their refrigerator. You need to ask how they’re sleeping. You need to understand the chronic stress they’re under and address those issues.”

When we can foresee a problem, we have more maneuvering room to fix it.

When people are rewarded for achieving a certain number, or punished for missing it, they will cheat.

The cobra effect occurs when an attempted solution to a problem makes the problem worse.

The effort to reduce the number of cobras yielded more cobras.

we can’t foresee everything; we will inevitably be mistaken about some of the consequences of our work. And if we aren’t collecting feedback, we won’t know how we’re wrong and we won’t have the ability to change course.

Feedback loops spur improvement.

reactive efforts succeed when problems happen and they’re fixed. Preventive efforts succeed when nothing happens. Who will pay for what does not happen?

We can pay to fix problems once they happen, or we can pay in advance to prevent them. What we need are more business and social entrepreneurs who can figure out how to flip payment models to support the preventive approach.

the spirit of upstream thinking: With some forethought, we can prevent problems before they happen, and even when we can’t stop them entirely, we can often blunt their impact.

Upstream thinking is not just for organizations, it’s for individuals. Where there’s a recurring problem in your life, go upstream.