Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen

by Dan Heath

Walker and Jaeger have begun to work on the problem of “inflow”—reducing the number of new people who become homeless.

The results of this analysis were shocking. In 2009, the writers Suzanne Bohan and Sandy Kleffman, assisted by Iton’s colleague Matt Beyers, chronicled the results in a series for the East Bay Times called “Shortened Lives.” In the 94597 ZIP code in Contra Costa County (Walnut Creek), life expectancy was 87.4 years. In the 94603 ZIP code in nearby Alameda County (Oakland neighborhood Sobrante Park), it plummeted to 71.2 years. Iton’s team had uncovered a 16-year gap in life expectancy in two areas that were 22 miles apart.

BHC’s theory of change is that, if you empower people to fight for their interests, they will win policy victories—they will change the system—which will allow them to transform their environment, piece by piece, shifting the odds back in their favor.

wins and 451 systems changes. Power works. “The law is just a set of rules based on inputs from power sources,” said Iton. “If you want to change the rules, you’ve got to change the power inputs so that the outcome will be different.”

The Greek polymath Archimedes said, “Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.” It’s an inspiring quote for change leaders.

Here are four questions to include in your pre-gaming: The “rising tides” test: Imagine that we succeed on our short-term measures. What else might explain that success, other than our own efforts, and are we tracking those factors? The misalignment test: Imagine that we’ll eventually learn that our short-term measures do not reliably predict success on our ultimate mission. What would allow us to sniff out that misalignment as early as possible, and what alternate short-term measures might provide potential replacements? The lazy bureaucrat test: If someone wanted to succeed on these measures with the least effort possible, what would they do? The defiling-the-mission test: Imagine that years from now, we have succeeded brilliantly according to our short-term measures, yet we have actually undermined our long-term mission. What happened?

The unintended consequences test: What if we succeed at our mission—not just the short-term measures but the mission itself—yet cause negative unintended consequences that outweigh the value of our work? What should we be paying attention to that’s offstage from our work?