Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen

by Dan Heath

“Data takes you away from philosophical insights.

You move away from anecdotal fights about what people think is happening to what is happening,” she said.

When we fail to anticipate second-order consequences, it’s an invitation to disaster, as the “cobra effect” makes clear.

“wrong pocket problem”: a situation where the entity that bears the cost of the intervention does not receive the primary benefit.

To prevent problems, upstream leaders must unite the right people (caregivers, insurers, patients).

And finally they must think about the funding stream: how to find someone who’ll pay for prevention.

Organizations are constantly dealing with urgent short-term problems. Planning for speculative future ones is, by definition, not urgent.

“The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.”