So there were three potential futures to consider: Sarkozy could earn 67 percent, 25 percent, or 45 percent of the votes cast. In one scenario, he would win easily, in another he would lose by a wide margin, and the third scenario was a relatively close call. How do you combine those contradictory outcomes into one prediction? “You simply average your estimates based on incumbency, approval ratings, and economic growth rates,” the training explained. “If you have no basis for treating one variable as more important than another, use equal weighting. This approach leads you to predict [(67% +
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