This is the most basic kind of probabilistic thinking, a simplistic example that teaches an underlying idea: Contradictory futures can be combined into a single prediction. As this kind of logic gets more sophisticated, experts usually begin speaking about various outcomes as probability curves—graphs that show the distribution of potential futures. For instance, if someone was asked to guess how many seats Sarkozy’s party was going to win in the French parliament, an expert might describe the possible outcomes as a curve that shows how the likelihood of winning parliamentary seats is linked
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