Most people intuitively understand that they need to apply different kinds of reasoning to predicting different kinds of events. We know that box office totals and life spans require different types of estimations, even if we don’t know anything about medical statistics or entertainment industry trends. Tenenbaum and Griffiths were curious to find out how people intuitively learn to make such estimations. So they found events with distinct patterns, from box office grosses to life spans, as well as the average length of poems, the careers of congressmen (which adhere to an Erlang
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