The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

Looking at the past provides a perspective on how far we have progressed. Understanding where we are today allows us to take stock of the progress we have made. Looking toward the future allows us to think of the possibilities.

This book examines the future of technology and proposes a methodology to better understand how technology is likely to evolve in the future. It will not attempt to pick individual technology winners and losers but, rather, will seek to provide a structured way to think about future technologies. Looking through this lens, we will identify the attributes that a future successful technology will seek to emulate and identify pitfalls that a technology developer should seek to avoid. This process will also help us think about the impact of technology on individuals and societies.

it is not the technology but how it is used by individuals, organizations, and nations that determines whether it becomes a threat—or an opportunity.

This book was motivated by several personal experiences. First, my observations about the importance of technology in the security and defense field have been foundational. The history of warfare contains numerous examples of specialized technologies designed to improve the efficiency of armies in battle. It also contains examples of technologies developed for civilian or peaceful purposes being applied in warfare with great effect. Perhaps not as well understood is that many of the technologies originally developed for use in warfare have later been adapted for nonmilitary uses with great benefit to society. Second, my experiences serving in government in the Department of Homeland Security in the Science and Technology Directorate caused me to directly confront questions surrounding how technologies are developed and what leads to successful transitions that fulfill a need. I also saw firsthand that successful technology development has as much to do with getting people to use it as with the technology itself. It may be terrific, but if the operator cannot or will not use it, it is irrelevant. Finally, on many occasions, friends and colleagues have asked questions about the development of technology. Some are simply looking to know more about the field. Others are asking for practical purposes as they look to integrate technological solutions into a business deal. Still others are looking to better understand how a novel, dual-use, or disruptive technology is likely to s...

try to put yourself in the perspective of the main character in the story. After all, we all have vast and varied experiences with technology, both positive and negative. Try to envision how your life would be different without many of the tools and gadgets we have at our disposal. And also try to place yourself in the future and think of the possibilities that advances in technology are likely to bring. Ask yourself whether technology could actually be controlled—and if so, how, to what end, and with what downsides?

What is technology, and where does it come from?”

Throughout the history of humankind, an interesting phenomenon can be seen. Observations regarding cause and effect have at times led to the technology being applied long before the science is understood.

In this journey, there are no recipes for success. Rather, there are indications of when changes are occurring within a technology area or when a novel application of technology might signal a new beginning—or an impending end. Being able to detect these changes in enough time to affect outcomes must become a priority for future technologists.

commonalities in evolution exist that can be useful to observe and understand.

Technologies today do not stand alone but, rather, are combinations of other technologies that have been brought together for practical purposes.

This book also examines how others have sought to assess the future of technology. What have been the successes and failures? What are the elements that will likely contribute to understanding how a technology will mature? After considering what lessons have been learned in assessing technologies, a methodology will be proposed for examining individual technologies and their resultant impact on particular areas of activity.

Finally, in many respects, the idea of managing technology essentially comes down to a question of balance. What is the proper balance between allowing scientific discovery and technological advancement to go largely unfettered versus imposing constraints that would stifle their progress? What are the benefits versus the risks of developing the technology? What is the proper balance between security and privacy? Does more need to be done to protect US research and development and intellectual property, or should the benefits be shared globally? In reflecting on these questions, consider the following scenarios. Do they cause you concern, or are they just part of the progress of human advancement and technology development? How you answer speaks volumes about your individual preferences in areas such as privacy and security.

In this chapter, we will place technology into a historical context to demonstrate the codevelopment of humankind and technology; four technologies will serve as examples of these dependencies. We will also consider technology from the users’ perspectives. My own experiences as an “accidental technologist” will be offered as a demonstration for how technology has aided and, at times, encroached upon our lives. And finally, we will develop working definitions for science and technology; research and development; and innovation and transformation.

For our purposes, internet will be used as a broad umbrella term that includes the development of computers and the early networks for passing messages as well as the global network that exists today.

the same planes that allow us to connect with people across the globe can also be used as missiles to destroy buildings and kill innocent people. Both possibilities must be considered when examining technology.

The technologies of today are really systems of systems.

Technologies can and must be combined and recombined to achieve operational purposes.

A technology is more than the sum of a system’s hardware and software components.

This experience reinforced that technology is only useful if accompanied by the knowledge to use it.

Technology includes the application of science, knowledge, and methods for achieving practical purposes.

Technology development cannot be rushed and proceeds at its own pace. Even leadership attention and generous resourcing may not be decisive in pushing technologies to maturity.

Getting a technology to market requires more than interesting concepts—it must be able to be produced in operationally relevant numbers at a reasonable cost, and it must fulfill an operational need.

different skill sets are required for conceiving of, developing, and integrating technologies that will eventually find their way to market.

Delivering technology means understanding one’s core business model and where to go for the technology solutions.

Building partnerships is essential as conducting basic and applied research, and early-stage development is largely unaffordable without relying on the existing body of knowledge and collaborating with others.

Frequently when discussing technology with colleagues, I often find myself wondering how they are using the word. When someone asks whether a technology will work, are they talking about whether a tool will be useful in a particular application, or whether the technology is mature and able to be used, or whether a doctrinal or organizational change might be in order to solve the problem they are encountering? Depending on the answer, the person could be referring to science, technology, research, development, innovation, or transformation.

technology has been loosely identified with the act of solving practical problems using devices, methods, and practices, while science has been identified as the quest for fundamental understanding of natural phenomena.

Science is the pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the natural and social world following a systematic (or scientific) methodology based on evidence derived from observations, experimentation, analy sis, and repetition of results.

Technology is the application of capabilities for practical purposes. It can include inputs from scientific knowledge or the collection of techniques, methods, or processes applied in a purposeful way. The term applies across a broad range of human endeavors.

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) provide a systemic approach to identifying the maturity of various technologies.12 In this framework, the nine levels are defined as: 1.Basic principles observed and reported 2.Technology concept and/or application formulated 3.Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept 4.Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment 5.Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment 6.System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment 7.System prototype demonstration in an operational environment 8.Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration

9.Actual system proven through successful mission operations

In contrast to S&T and R&D, which are methodical processes, innovation relates more to the generation of ideas and development of combinations of technologies and capabilities in a far less structured approach. In describing innovation, innovators often talk of developing ideas for solving problems or improving efficiency.

Innovation is a process for generating,

promoting, and operationalizing ideas. It results from remaining connected to the operational problem that needs to be solved. Innovation cannot be allowed to become synonymous with only procurement or acquisition of new hardware or software as it is far subtler. Promoting a culture that will allow ideas to be generated, most of which are likely to be discarded, will undoubtedly be among the most important attributes for innovation to succeed.15 At the core, innovation is about taking risks and having the freedom to pursue alternative solutions. Innovation can result in evolutionary or revolutionary changes to approaching operational requirements and developing new capabilities. The other half of this third pair, transformation, is a term that describes a comprehensive change within an organization. The process of transformation can occur in any organization, industry, or government. However, the term owes a significant portion of its popularity to its use (some might say overuse) by the US military.

The overall conclusion from these trends is that as a percentage of global R&D, the US share is declining, indicating that technology is being democratized. While we still lead in terms of overall R&D spending, the rest of the world is catching up.

While in this case, the tech developer and the operator have connected, a broader question arises of whether such randomness in marrying up the technological capabilities with operational problems is adequate for developing these connections. Asked another way, is a random process the most efficient way to ensure that the scarce resources associated with S&T, R&D, and I&T are most effectively employed? Or should (or can) a more deliberate process be developed to identify opportunities for convergence of technologies and eventual transition to use?

As we consider technology development, and remembering that technology is the “application of capabilities for practical purposes,” ask yourself: how does the technologist determine the practical applications for which capabilities are required?

During the initial stages of technology development, progress would likely be measured in very small, incremental understandings or improvements. It might also be measured in a multitude of failures that serve as lessons that can eventually be applied to mastering the development of the technology. Over time and with continued effort (and assuming no one is attempting to violate fundamental laws of physics), the technology will mature and reach an inflection point at which the rate of change in performance begins to accelerate. During this exponential change, several occurrences will likely be observed. First, less effort will be required to gain increases in performance. This does not imply that now is the time to stop providing resources to the technology development. Rather, it signifies that achieving increases in performance will be less costly in this phase of technology development. In other words, fewer resources will be required per unit of increase in performance. This is a good thing, as it means the technology is beginning to mature. Second, progress along the S-curve will likely continue unless impeded in some way. Examples could include cases in which the technology is not feasible, other technologies may be required to support the development efforts, adequate resources are not available, or perhaps there is no demand for the technology. In cases where technology

development is not progressing, perhaps additional research or scientific discovery will be needed. This is what is implied when we talk about taking a technology back to earlier stages of research. Alternatively, the development of the technology could depend on other component technologies that need to be either matured or integrated to support further development of the primary technology under consideration. It is also possible that there is little or no demand for the technology—that is, users are not looking to have a technology for the practical application envisioned. Figure 3.1. The Technology S-Curve Third, as the technology matures, it will likely contribute to the understanding of other possible use cases. Initially, the technology may itself be developed as the primary application; however, secondary uses will inevitably be discovered. Technologies become building blocks for other technologies, with wide adoption expected for successful technologies. Consider how the basic technology of radio frequency and wave propagation, although many generations removed from its ancestors, has become an essential component in all wireless communications in use today. Fourth, should specifics of the technology development become known or other similar technology development efforts occur in parallel, it is possible that a technology “pull” will take place. Such a demand signal could propel the development of a related or building-block technology. For example, the continuou...

and increasing user demand. In the case of the cell phone, companies are adding capabilities to attract customers, and in turn, these new capabilities result in a new demand signal placed on the industry by consumers. Another example of technology continuing to evolve in response to a practical need is gene editing. While gene editing has been around since the 1970s, using techniques such as zinc finger nucleases and transcription activator-like effector nucleases, these methods required a great deal of skill and knowledge and were not particularly rapid or accurate. The development of CRISPR-Cas9 essentially changed the world of gene editing by developing commercially available kits that provide speed, precision, and accuracy to manipulate a genomic sequence. The success of CRISPR is leading to the development of more gene editing tools with even greater capabilities.2 Fifth, a technology will reach the point of diminishing returns. Over time, when a technology is reaching full maturity, the rate of increase in performance will begin to slow. In our S-curve model, the cost for incremental improvements in performance becomes prohibitive. This would likely be the point at which t...

S-curves can also be very useful for understanding the rate of technology adoption. The categories describing this rate are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Obviously, if one is interested in technology from the standpoint of investing, being an innovator or early adopter is likely to have the most benefit. On the other hand, if one is thinking about this as a consumer, innovators and early adopters are likely to get products with less maturity, fewer capabilities, and perhaps some flaws for the price of early entry into the market. At the other end of the spectrum, late-majority consumers and laggards are likely to get more mature technology but may be entering the market when newer, more advanced products are already becoming available.

HOW TECHNOLOGIES ARE STRUCTURED In his book The Nature of Technology, Brian Arthur does a great service to the field of evolutionary technology, providing an important perspective regarding principles of technology development. It is through these understandings of history and the evolutionary principles that one gains not only an appreciation for both technology development in the past and the trajectory of technology today, but also a view—perhaps only a peek—into the future of technology. Arthur’s view of technology rests on three core principles: All technologies are combinations of elements. These elements themselves are technologies. All technologies use phenomena to some purpose.

A classic dilemma in technology development is the question of connectedness versus disconnectedness. Something is said to be connected if the technology development directly relates to an operational need and disconnected if there is either no relationship or a loose relationship between the technology and the operational need.

Connectedness occurs when technology developers are working closely with operators to identify real-world problems and look for solutions. Disconnectedness, on the other hand, occurs when scientists, researchers, and developers are largely working independently without deep understanding of the operational problem that is to be solved. One can easily see how either of the two extremes—either absolute connectedness or complete disconnectedness—would not be beneficial.

When we examine disconnected technology development, an equally disconcerting problem rises. Technology developers understand what the future possibilities hold, and perhaps they develop capabilities and systems, thinking these might be beneficial based on their technologically informed perspective. However, this perspective likely does not include an operational viewpoint. If the technology developer does not understand the operational problems or only has a vague conception of them, the developer is beginning by violating the spirit of technology development.

The top-left quadrant comes at the intersection of a high quest for fundamental understanding and a low consideration of use. Stokes refers to this part of the matrix as the “Bohr quadrant,” named after Niels Bohr, a physicist who received the Nobel Prize for his work on the structure of the atom. Bohr’s studies tended toward being more theoretical in nature and, in addition to his work on atomic structure, included such subjects as surface tension caused by oscillating jets, fundamental inquiries into radioactive phenomena, absorption of alpha rays, and quantum theory. While his work was considered highly theoretical in its day, it formed the intellectual underpinnings and foundations for a wide range of scientific principles, technologies, and inventions that have become integral to humankind, such as the structure of the atom, quantum physics, and quantum computing. Stokes identifies this quadrant as the realm of pure basic research.9 The lower-left quadrant comes at the intersection of a low quest for fundamental understanding and a high consideration of use. Stokes labels this part of the matrix the “Edison quadrant,” named after Thomas Edison, who was largely recognized as an American inventor. Edison is credited with holding 1093 patents; establishing the first industrial research laboratory; and creating a host of specific inventions and innovations related to the telegraph as well as early batteries, the telephone, the microphone, incandescent lamps, and a motion ...

technique that now bears his name, pasteurization. Pasteur followed the scientific method in gaining an understanding of rabies and development of a new vaccine to protect against the virus.

TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT: THE THREE D’S (DUAL USE, DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY, AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF TECHNOLOGY) Three historical trends have defined technological advancement: dual use, the disruptive nature of technology, and the democratization of technology.

Dual Use The term dual use has come to have multiple meanings. In casual conversation, we say an item is dual-use technology if it can satisfy more than one purpose at any given time. A technology is also said to be dual use if it has applications for commercial or civil purposes but also the potential to be used for military purposes (as weapons) or malicious applications. It is this second connotation that will be a primary point of discussion for us.

At the end of the day, mitigating dual-use concerns comes down to managing risk. As all technologies have the potential to be used for useful practical applications as well as for nefarious purposes, a framework and tools for managing these risks are necessary and are provided by laws, policies, regulations, and standards. It is also interesting to consider whether the seven experiments of concern could be adapted and might have applications in other fields beyond biology as limits in technologies such as artificial intelligence are considered. More on how technologies are “managed” will be discussed in a later chapter. At times, dual use has been regarded from an unhealthy perspective. If one says something is dual use, the antenna goes up with immediate suspicion that a technology could be dangerous, perhaps even something to be avoided. But that is not always the case. The use of GPS technology provides such an example. GPS was originally designed for navigation of military assets and for controlling long-range weapon systems and other smart weapons. The same technology now forms the backbone of numerous civilian applications, such as navigation in all forms of transportation including aircraft, ships and automobiles. This simple example serves to illustrate that dual-use technology does not refer to something that is inherently bad or dangerous but, rather, that the use case—whether it is used for the betterment of society or for malicious purposes—should become the de...