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January 2 - March 27, 2022
So what exactly is a mental model? It’s a blueprint to draw your attention to the important elements of whatever you are facing, and it defines context, background, and direction.
By definition, our personal mental models are limited and only reflect a biased perspective.
MM #1: Address “Important”; Ignore “Urgent” Use to separate true priorities from imposters.
The mistake is thinking of “important” and “urgent” as synonymous and not realizing the huge gulf of difference between the two terms and how you should prioritize them. The ability to distinguish the two is a key step in lowering your anxiety, stopping procrastination, and making sure that you are acting in an optimized way.
These are usually smaller and easier to complete, so often we turn to them out of procrastination, and it allows us to feel quasi-productive even though we’ve ignored what we really need to be doing.
Typically, you’ll find that an important activity or project might not have that many urgent tasks connected with it. This tends to cause confusion of priorities.
MM #2: Visualize All the Dominoes Use to make decisions that are as informed as possible.
project into the future and extrapolate a range of consequences that you can use to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for your decisions or solutions.
Yes, second-order thinking has the usual effect of making you think twice about what you’re doing and helps eliminate rash decisions,
Think about it this way: very rarely does something happen with no chain of events to follow.
Second-order thinking allows you to project the totality of your decisions.
How broadly will this decision affect things in the future? What will your decision do beyond change your immediate concerns? What concerns will be created? Will your decision’s purpose be fulfilled? Which result do I think will happen?
Howard model for second order thinking.
Think beyond the simple resolution of the most immediate problem: if you take this course of action, what effect will it have if it succeeds or fails? What do those outcomes look like? What do semi-success and semi-failure look like?
MM #3: Make Reversible Decisions Use to strategically remove indecision whenever you can and have an action bias.
One of the biggest reasons we have for inaction is the anxiety associated with the seeming finality of decisions. We are conditioned to think that there is no turning back, and to be a “man/woman of our word.”
Add this to your decision-making analysis: how can I make this decision reversible, and what would it take? Can I do it? Then do that.
Reversing a decision is rarely going back on your word; it’s just adjusting your position in the face of new information. You’d be silly not to.
“One good test is worth a thousand expert opinions.”
MM #4: Seek “Satisfiction” Use to achieve your priorities and ignore what doesn’t matter.
Maximization represents a conundrum in our modern age, because while it is more possible than at any point in human history to get exactly what you want, there is also the paradox of choice, which makes it impossible to be satisfied.
We frequently waste time on what doesn’t matter and what will never matter.
An easy method to seek satisfiction and not be unknowingly seduced into maximizing—spending way too much time on something that doesn’t matter—is to set boundaries for yourself. This isn’t about boundaries on research; rather, it’s about boundaries on what you’re looking for.
Many people who search for this don’t realize that they are searching for something that doesn’t exist and only acts to keep their own hands tied.
Achieving 100% accuracy or success rate is a myth. Stop yourself whenever you find yourself pushing for more information to start taking action or to commit to a decision.
At the lower bounds, you are prepared enough to make at least a first step. Keep in mind that while the decision is being played out, you will also gain information, confidence, and knowledge that can bump you toward a higher degree of certainty.
It also forces you to think about the future you actually want, as opposed to the one you are currently heading toward. First, you must determine what you want from your life, and then you can tailor your decisions toward it.
deal with the fact that when you focus your attentions in one place, something else will inevitably be overlooked.
It may simply create awareness of possibilities, but most black swan events don’t deserve to be accounted for in everyday life.
anything that disrupts and upends our placement or personal views. There is an impact to be sure, but how much should we truly account for these outliers?
Black swan events
While there isn’t necessarily a predictable rate that diminishing returns follows, the existence of it is predictable in general.
Not recognizing the law of diminishing returns will usually hurt you.
We have a tendency to fabricate a cause and effect relationship where there is none.
System 2 is used for decision-making in events that could result in high consequences, like choosing a college, buying a new car, or quitting your job.
Where System 1 thinking is fluent and instinctive, System 2 thinking is the opposite: it’s deliberate, conscious, and methodical.
We spend 24 hours a day within our own heads. Once in a while we break to take in other information, but generally speaking, our own opinions are the ones that we hear the most.
Requesting the learned opinions of others can be illuminating, especially if they happen to confirm that your opinions and perspectives have been misguided.
Confirmation bias is the ultimate stance of seeing what you want to see and using that perception to prove a pre-chosen conclusion.
Finding your own flaws flows in the opposite (and correct) direction of starting with premises and then drawing conclusions only from what the evidence seems to honestly point toward.
the SCAMPER method stands for seven techniques that help direct thinking toward novel ideas and solutions: (S) substitute, (C) combine, (A) adapt, (M) minimize/magnify, (P) put to another use, (E) eliminate, and (R) reverse.
First principles thinking is the practice of obliterating this tendency to follow and breaking assumptions down until only basic factors remain.
“What are we 100% sure is true and proven? Okay, let’s disregard everything besides that.”
It’s great to be proficient at a lot of things. But it’s also great—and arguably more human—to know your limitations,
Don’t set yourself up for failure by operating outside of your zone of genius.
Each of you will have to figure out where your talent lies. And you’ll have to use your advantages. But if you try to succeed in what you’re worst at, you’re going to have a very lousy career.
Whatever you do to ease your guilt is never the right thing, and whatever seems most difficult is the most correct course of action. Unfortunately, doing the right thing usually means doing the hard thing;
When you can’t confidently say that you’re doing the right thing, you’re not
If you’re not doing what you should be, then anything else out of your mouth is an excuse, plain and simple.
And when you feel that you are engaging in the easy path of least resistance, ask yourself what the honest reason is. Hint: it’s not “it’s too hot outside” or “it’s too late”; it’s actually “I’m not going to run today because I’m lazy and have issues with self-discipline and commitment.” In effect, you become brutally honest and confrontational with yourself, which is sometimes the only way to get a message across.
So the next time you are battling with yourself between the path of least resistance and the correct path, stop and ask yourself how you will feel 10 minutes, 10 hours, and 10 days from now.
Relying on humans is not a smart move because humans are, by and large, careless idiots—myself
While this kind of brainstorming can pay dividends, it’s not always the best course of action for one simple reason: the more factors you have, the less probability there is of it being correct.
