Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

by Gabriel Weinberg

However, there is no reason to jump immediately to the complex explanation when you have simpler alternatives to explore first.

conjunction fallacy,

The fallacy arises because the probability of two events in conjunction is always less than or equal to the probability of either one of the events occurring alone,

You not only have a natural tendency to think something specific is more probable than something general, but you also have a similarly fallacious tendency to explain data using too many assumptions.

Overfitting occurs when you use an overly complicated explanation when a simpler one will do.

It can occur in any situation where an explanation introduces unnecessary assumptions.

How much does my data really support my conclusion versus other conclusions? Do my symptoms really point only to cancer, or could they also point to a variety of other ailments, such as the common cold? Do I really need the curvy line to explain the data, or would a simple straight line explain just as much?

KISS: Keep It Simple, Stupid!

When crafting a solution to a problem, whether making a decision or explaining data, you want to start with the simplest set of assumptions you can think...

IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER

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In physics your perspective is called your frame of reference, a concept central to Einstein’s theory of relativity.

If you’re trying to be as objective as possible when making a decision or solving a problem, you always want to account for your frame of reference. You will of course be influenced by your perspective, but you don’t want to be unknowingly influenced.

And if you think you may not have the full understanding of a situation, then you must actively try to get it by looking from a variety of different frames of reference.

Framing refers to the way you present a situation or explanation.

When you present an important issue to your coworker or family member, you try to frame it in a way that might help them best understand your perspective, setting the stage for a beneficial conversation.

if you want your organization to embark on an innovative yet expensive project, you might frame it to your colleagues as a potential opportunity to outshine the competition rather than as ...

When someone presents a new idea or decision to you, take a step back and consider other ways in which it could be framed.

Multiple framings can be valid yet convey vastly different perspectives.

A related trap/trick is nudging.

“About how fast were the cars going when they contacted each other?” Other participants received the same question, except that the verb contacted was replaced by either hit, bumped, collided, or smashed.

You can be nudged in a direction by a subtle word choice or other environmental cues.

Restaurants will nudge you by highlighting certain dishes on menu inserts, by having servers verbally describe specials, or by just putting boxes around certain items. Retail stores and websites nudge you to purchase certain products by placing them where they are easier to see.

Another concept you will find useful when making purchasing decisions is anchoring, which describes your tendency to rely too heavily on first impressions when making decisions. You get anchored to the first piece of framing information you encounter. This tendency is commonly exploited by businesses when making offers.

Print only ($125): 0 percent

Just having the print-only option—even though no one chooses it—anchors readers to a much higher value for the print-and-web version. It feels like you are getting the web version for free,

They’re reduced from the so-called manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), which is usually very high. Being aware of the MSRP anchors you so that you feel you are getting a good deal at 40 percent off. Often, that reduction just brings the price to a reasonable level.

anchoring others to his extreme positions, so that what seem like compromises are actually agreements in his favor.

More broadly, these mental models are all instances of a more general model, availability bias, which occurs when a bias, or distortion, creeps into your objective view of reality thanks to information recently made available to you.

Availability bias can easily emerge from high media coverage of a topic. Rightly or wrongly, the media infamously has a mantra of “If it bleeds, it leads.”

Availability bias stems from overreliance on your recent experiences within your frame of reference, at the expense of the big picture.

Let’s say you are a manager and you need to write an annual review for your direct report. You are supposed to think critically and objectively about her performance over the entire year. However, it’s easy to be swayed by those really bad or really good contributions over just the past few weeks.

filter bubble,

Because of availability bias, you’re likely to click on things you’re already familiar with, and so Google, Facebook, and many other companies tend to show you more of what they think you already know and like. Since there are only so many items they can show you—only so many links on page one of the search results—they therefore filter out links they think you are unlikely to click on, such as opposing viewpoints, effectively placing you in a bubble.

When you put many similar filter bubbles together, you get echo chambers, where the same ideas seem to bounce around the same groups of people, echoing around the collective chambers of these connected filter bubbles.

Echo chambers result in increased partisanship, as people have less and less exposure to alternative viewpoints.

And because of availability bias, they consistently overestimate the percentage of people ...

It’s easy to focus solely on what is put in front of you. It’s much harder to seek out an objective frame of reference, but that is what yo...

WALK A MILE IN THEIR SHOES

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Most of the significant problems in the world involve people, so making headway on these problems often requires a deep understanding of the people involved.

However, it is very easy to be wrong about other people’s motivations.

With such assumptions, you may conclude that they should also behave like you would or hold your beliefs. Unfortunately, often these assumptions are wrong.

to be wrong less when thinking about people, you must find ways to increase your empathy, opening up a deeper understanding of what other people are really thinking.

In any conflict between two people, there are two sides of the story. Then there is the third story, the story that a third, impartial observer would recount. Forcing yourself to think as an impartial observer can help you in any conflict situation, in...

Difficult Conversations: “The key is learning to describe the gap—or difference—between your story and the other person’s story. Whatever else you may think and feel, you can at least agree that you and the other person see things differently.”

If you can coherently articulate other points of view, even those directly in conflict with your own, then you will be less likely to make biased or incorrect judgments. You will dramatically increase your empathy—your understanding of other people’s frames of reference—whether or not you agree.

Another tactical model that can help you empathize is the most respectful interpretation, or MRI.

MRI asks you to you interpret the other parties’ actions in the most respectful way possible. It’s giving people the benefit of the doubt.

The point is you don’t know the real answer yet, but if you approach the situation with the most respectful interpretation, then you will generally build trust with those involved rather than destroy it. With MRI, your follow-up email or call is more likely to have an inquisitive tone rather than an accusatory one. Building trust pays dividends over time, especially in difficult situations where that trust can serve as a bridge toward an amicable resolution.

Using MRI may seem naïve, but like the third story, this model isn’t asking you to give up your point of view. Instead, MRI asks you to approach a situation from a perspective of respect. You remain open to other interpretations and withhold judgment until necessary.

Hanlon’s razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness.