Super Thinking: Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models

by Gabriel Weinberg

“The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.”

Trees

My team can build our product. We have the right number and type of engineers; our engineers have the right expertise; our product can be built in a reasonable amount of time; etc. • People will want our product. Our product solves the problem we think it does; our product is simple enough to use; our product has the critical features needed for success; etc. • Our product will generate profit. We can charge more for our product than it costs to make and market it; we have good messaging to market our product; we can sell enough of our product to cover our fixed costs; etc. • We will be able to fend off competitors. We can protect our intellectual property; we are doing something that is difficult to copy; we can build a trusted brand; etc. • The market is large enough for a long-term business opportunity. There are enough people out there who will want to buy our product; the market for our product is growing rapidly; the bigger we get, the more profit we can make; etc.

When you put many similar filter bubbles together, you get echo chambers, where the same ideas seem to bounce around the same groups of people, echoing around the collective chambers

Then there is the third story, the story that a third, impartial observer would recount. Forcing yourself to think as an impartial observer can help you in any conflict situation, including difficult business negotiations and personal disagreements.

fundamental attribution error, where you frequently make errors by attributing others’ behaviors to their internal, or fundamental, motivations rather than external factors.

Charlie Munger says, “I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.”

It would appear that, for whatever purpose, be it for internal or external consumption, the management of NASA exaggerates the reliability of its product, to the point of fantasy …. For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

optimistic probability bias, because you are too optimistic about the probability of success.

“You must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”

■ To avoid mental traps, you must think more objectively. Try arguing from first principles, getting to root causes, and seeking out the third story. ■ Realize that your intuitive interpretations of the world can often be wrong due to availability bias, fundamental attribution error, optimistic probability bias, and other related mental models that explain common errors in thinking. ■ Use Ockham’s razor and Hanlon’s razor to begin investigating the simplest objective explanations. Then test your theories by de-risking your assumptions, avoiding premature optimization. ■ Attempt to think gray in an effort to consistently avoid confirmation bias. ■ Actively seek out other perspectives by including the Devil’s advocate position and bypassing the filter bubble. Consider the adage “You are what you eat.” You need to take in a variety of foods to be a healthy person. Likewise, taking in a variety of perspectives will help you become a super thinker.

moral hazard, is where you take on more risk, or hazard, once you have information that encourages you to believe you are more protected.

The model perfect is the enemy of good drives

An outline helped us link related concepts and group them into coherent sections and chapters.

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

kids can watch essentially whatever they want whenever they want with Hulu, Netflix, Amazon, etc. No

Casinos give away a lot of free stuff (reciprocity); they get you to first buy chips with cash (commitment); they try to personalize your experience to your interests (liking); they show you examples of other people who won big (social proof); they constantly present you with offers preying on your fear of missing out (scarcity); and dealers will even give you suboptimal advice (authority). Beware. There is a reason why the house always wins! PERSPECTIVE

VISION WITHOUT EXECUTION IS JUST HALLUCINATION

“Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.”