The Systems Thinker: Essential Thinking Skills (The Systems Thinker Series, #1)

by Albert Rutherford

“It isn’t what we know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” – Will Rogers

A system is a group of things that are interconnected and demonstrate their own behavior pattern over time.

Systems thinking encourages us to look at events and patterns that occur in our lives and around us by focusing on the connection and relationship between the system’s parts instead of only looking at the individual parts in isolation. It encourages observing the interconnections of the parts.

it is impossible to understand a system and the way it behaves if our focus is only on the individual elements within it. If we hope to really learn about a system, we need to see the system as a whole and study the way the different elements interact and are interdependent with each other.

system is a group of interconnected elements that work together to achieve a common purpose or function. In order to consider something a system, we need to have three things: Elements; Interconnections; Purpose or function. If even one of those items is missing, we don’t have a system.

The function of almost every system is the will and work to ensure its own survival.

To maintain a successful system, the sub-purposes and the main purpose have to be kept in harmony.

Changing the interconnections, on the other hand, has a far greater impact on the system as a whole.

Changing the purpose or function of a system can produce even more drastic results.

Stocks and Flows

Feedback Loops

Reinforcing Feedback Loops

Open and closed systems

Here are the next four steps they advise aspiring systems thinkers to take into consideration: Explore the Purpose Ask yourself where you are now and where you hope to be. It is only by taking a hard, honest look at your current reality, of where you are at the present time as well as what your true goals of a successful outcome from the system would look like that you can begin to close the gap and achieve your vision. Examine Mental Models Go deeper than the superficial layer of a system. Assume that everyone involved is acting rationally and try to get to the bottom of understanding why they might have made the decisions they did. These ideas should get added to the causal loop diagrams as thought bubbles. Acknowledge Personal Responsibility It is human nature to want to place blame outside of ourselves when things go wrong. That’s how we’re wired. The problem with that line of thinking, though, is that it also gives away our power. If we refuse to accept the role we might play in the current problems the system is having, we also give away our ability to be a part of a real and lasting solution. Systems thinkers aren’t looking to place blame; they are looking for solutions. Very often positive change begins with us. Expand the View Problems in systems rarely occur in a vacuum. They have connections to both the past and the future. We just have to be willing to look for them. It is equally important to know if the system has ever been in the same situation before ...

Resilience

Self-organization

Hierarchy

Event Level Vs. Behavior Level Analysis

The nonlinear world

Theodore Roosevelt once said, “Do what you can with what you have where you are.” This could be a fair summary of what bounded rationality is. Bounded rationality means that people usually make sensible decisions based on the information that they have. The quality of their decisions is only as good as the information they have. It is impossible to have perfect information, especially about parts of a system that are more distant.

When to intervene in a system?

Leverage points

Changing parameters

Buffers

Rules and Incentives

The following questions are helpful to consider as you evaluate a prediction:

“Are the driving factors likely to behave in the way they suggest?”

“If the driving factors did behave that way, would the system react this way?”

“What is driving the driving factors?”[xliii]

A Renewable Stock Constrained by a Nonrenewable Stock

The nine most common systems archetypes are the following: Shifting the Burden Fixes that Backfire Growth and Underinvestment Tragedy of the Commons Limits to Success Accidental Adversaries Escalation Drifting Goals Success to the Successful

Tragedy of the Commons The tragedy of the commons is a trap that appears when there is escalation in a shared, erodible environment.

How to fix the tragedy of the commons? Educate and warn people about the consequences of uncontrolled use of the commons.

Success to the successful Those who are financially well off often use the wealth and privilege they have to get special or additional knowledge, which in turn helps them generate more of the money, privilege, and closed-group information for themselves. Competitive exclusion is a system trap.

Escalation If you have ever witnessed two siblings fighting with one another, with each new poke, push, or insult getting stronger and worse than the last, you have seen escalation firsthand. Escalation is guided by a reinforcing loop in which the actors involved are in competition with each another and the driving factor behind their behavior and decision making is trying to outdo one another.

Shifting the Burden – Addiction It’s hard to turn a blind eye on the addictions that exist in our society today: drugs, alcohol, nicotine, food, shopping, gambling, etc. We are familiar with the unfortunate existence of them. But there are, however, other kinds of addictions present in many systems that you have probably never thought of as addictions before. An addiction is a reliance or dependence on something such as a country receiving government subsidies for financial loans and support.

Good Intentions Business consultant James C. Collins once said, “Bad decisions made with good intentions, are still bad decisions.” Good intentions are simply not enough. We all mean well, but sometimes in a rush to find a solution we actually make things worse. It is important to own it when a solution isn’t working and begin putting in the work to effect meaningful change.

Collective impact leads to: - mutually reinforcing activities - a common agenda, - shared measurement, - continuous communication.[lxv]

Diagram 17: The Iceberg Model[lxvii]

Let’s talk about the levels of the iceberg you can see in diagram 17.. 1. The Event Level People perceive the world at the event level most of the time. For example, waking up in the middle of the night realizing that you’re thirsty is an event level analysis. Event level problems can often be solved with a simple correction, like drinking a glass of water. However, the iceberg model encourages us to dig deeper instead of automatically assuming that the problem we are facing is indeed an event level problem. Instead of just reacting to our thirst, let’s dig deeper. 2. The Pattern Level When we look beyond events, we often identify patterns. Events with strong resemblance have been occurring with us over time – we have been very thirsty in differing parts of the day. Maybe we are dangerously dehydrated. Acknowledging patterns helps us forecast and forestall events. 3. The Structure Level When we try to find the answer to the question, “What’s the cause of the pattern we are observing?” we usually conclude that it’s some kind of structure. Because of our increased workload in the heat of the day, we often forget to drink enough water and this has taken its toll on our body in the summer heat. Professor John Gerber informs us that structures can include the following things:[lxviii] - Physical things — stores, sidewalks, or benches in a park. - Organizations — corporations, hospitals, and schools. - Policies — regulations, restrictions, or taxes. - Rituals — subconsciou...

The story of balancing feedback loops Balancing feedback loops are the driving force behind improving a social system because they act to correct the system’s behavior by closing the gap between where the system currently is and where we want it to be. Balancing loops operate in equilibrium and are already moving along achieving their goals.

Based on the observations made in the three points above, policy makers can adjust their actions as follows: - Ensure the reinforcement of the interventions that prove to bring good results instead of reducing support when the problem becomes less pressing. - Acknowledge the perception, delivery, and adoption delay of the correcting actions. Practice patience and persistence with the interference. - Before developing an intervention strategy, make sure every actor involved shares the same understanding, goals, and reality.

The story of reinforcing feedback loops: success to the successful

The four stages of change based on the homeless story

Creating a shared understanding is crucial to seeing why the current problems exist and what can be the best solutions to it that are more than quick

The shared picture will help people to commit to the idea “I will get my part done, and I’ll make sure we all get the whole thing done.” The creative tension rooting in the shared picture, brings forth the idea of the four stages of change. Let’s go through these stages one by one.

Stage 1 – This

These stakeholders were actively engaged in coming up with a common agenda in which they agreed upon their shared view of where they would like for the system to be. They cultivated a shared vision of what successful change would look like and set their common purpose. They learned how to effectively communicate with each other.

Stage 2 – This is the “reality check” stage where they gathered and organized information to help give them a clear and honest picture of where the system was currently. They did interviews and looked back in history to see if the system had been there before. Then they organized the information they had gathered to develop a basic system analysis on how the different actors had interacted over time to help or deter the common goal. They formed a shared view of what was happening and began to analyze why it was happening. They accepted responsibility for any role they may have played in contributing to the problem.