it is possible to construct a plausible reason for any course of action, by cherry-picking the data you choose to include in your model and ignoring inconvenient facts. As I said earlier, the people who lost the Brexit referendum in the UK, and the Democrats who lost to Donald Trump in the US, both feel that their respective campaigns had the better arguments, but you would have to be a very committed Remainer or Democrat not to notice that the field in which they were prepared to argue in both cases was spectacularly narrow. The more data you have, the easier it is to find support for some
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