Should I rely on my gut instinct when making decisions?, the scientific view is that you should do so only if you’re a chess master or someone with similarly prolonged, specific experience making decisions repeatedly in a particular situation. Most of us aren’t like the chess master—though we may think we are. “Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness,”9 Kahneman writes. They “sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts.” But all the while, “they may be in the grip of an illusion.” Rather than ask, Should I trust my gut
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