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January 22 - January 22, 2019
“safe” investments such as high-quality bonds offer such terrible returns that you wonder if someone’s having a laugh at your expense. I
At that rate, it would take you 69,300 years to double your money!
you don’t have to predict the future to win this game.
The result of all that research was my 670-page behemoth of a book, Money: Master the Game.
I hope you’ll also read Money: Master the Game,
His advice? They should pick up a copy of my book, Money: Master
the all-weather portfolio
This portfolio is not meant to be one-size-fits-all, nor is it intended to be the greatest performer. It’s meant to provide a smoother ride for those unable to stomach the volatility of a portfolio with a higher percentage of stocks (which can also lead to higher returns).
But what’s really amazing is that this portfolio for all seasons would have made
money 85% of the time over the la...
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one of the simplest yet most important
rules is this: fees matter.
The problem is, most funds do a terrific job of charging high fees but a terrible job of picking successful investments. One study showed that 96% of mutual funds failed to beat the market over a 15-year period.I The result? You overpay for underperformance
That’s how you become wealthy while you sleep. That’s how you make money your slave instead of being a slave to money. That’s how you achieve true financial freedom.
The single best place to compound money over many years is in the stock market.
financial winter comes, on average, every year.
When any market falls by at least 10% from its peak, it’s called a correction—a peculiarly bland and neutral term for an experience that most people relish about as much as dental surgery! When a market falls by at least 20% from its peak, it’s called a bear market.
Finally, we’ll explain the most important fact of all: the biggest danger isn’t a correction or a bear market, it’s being out of the market.
On Average, Corrections Have Occurred About Once a Year Since 1900
From 1980 through the end of 2015, the average drop was 14.2%.
Less Than 20% of All Corrections Turn
Into a Bear Market
Nobody Can Predict Consistently Whether the Market Will Rise or Fall
The Stock
Market Rises over Time Despite Many Short-Term Setbacks
But one big advantage of owning an index fund that tracks a basket of stocks such as the S&P 500 is that the weaker companies intermittently get culled and replaced by stronger ones.
how population growth and extraordinary gains in productivity will create an enormous increase in wealth for the next generation of Americans. “This all-powerful trend is certain to continue: America’s economic magic remains alive and well,” he wrote. “For 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start.”
Historically, Bear Markets Have Happened Every Three to Five Years
Actually, no. Here again, we need to understand a few key facts so we can act on the basis of knowledge, not emotion.
But here’s what you need
know: bear markets don’t last.
Bear Markets Become Bull Markets, and Pessimism Becomes Optimism
Now can you see why Warren Buffett says he likes to be greedy when others are fearful?
In fact, every single bear market in US history has been followed by a bull market, without exception.
From 1996 through 2015, the S&P 500 returned an average of 8.2% a year. But if you missed out on the top 10 trading days during those 20 years, your returns dwindled to just 4.5% a year. Can you
Meanwhile, a study by JPMorgan found that 6 of the 10 best days in the market
over the last 20 years occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
But what if you get into the market at exactly the wrong time?
The lesson? If you stay in the market long enough, compounding works
its magic, and you end up with a healthy return—even if your timing was hopelessly unlucky.
But for the rest of us, picking individual stocks is a losing game. There are just too many things we don’t
know, too many variables, too much that can go wrong.
But you’ve got to win by a big enough margin to cover those transaction costs. Wait, it gets worse! If your stock goes up, you’ll also have to pay taxes on your profits when you sell the stock.
For investors in an actively managed fund, this combination of hefty transaction costs and taxes is a silent killer, quietly eating away at the fund’s returns!
To add value after taxes and fees, the fund manager has to win by...
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Because the largest expense in your life is taxes, and paying more than you need to pay is insane—especially when it’s absolutely avoidable!
So what’s the antidote? Index funds take a “passive” approach that eliminates almost all trading activity.
Many people mistakenly assume that you just need to be right a little more than 50% of the time for this approach to pay off.
But an exhaustive study by Nobel laureate economist William Sharpe showed that a market-timing investor must be
right 69% to 91% of the time—an impossibl...
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