Jack Jefford

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There is the unambiguously ‘right’ answer, where certainty is achieved by limiting the number of data points considered. The downside of this is that, in the wrong context, it can be hopelessly wrong. Then there is the pretty good judgement of psycho-logic, which considers a far wider range of factors to arrive at a not-perfect-but-rarely-stupid conclusion.
Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make Sense
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