Gunther-Murphy introduced them to a technique called “failure mode and effect analysis” (FMEA), a precursor to the premortem that has been used for decades in the military and government. In an FMEA, team members identify what could go wrong at every step of their plans, and for each potential failure they ask two questions: “How likely is it?” and “How severe would the consequences be?” After assigning a score from 1 to 10 for each variable, they multiply the two numbers to get a total. The highest totals—the most severe potential failures—get the most attention.§
