What’s interesting is that people’s estimates grew much more accurate when they were asked to explicitly consider the high and low ends of the range.‡ The researchers suggested that by considering each bookend separately, people tap different pools of knowledge. So if you think about why Jolie’s average films might be low grossing, you might remember some of the low-budget indie films she made in the mid-1990s, when she was a relatively unknown actress. Or if you’re thinking about why her average film might gross more than $100 million, you might recall Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, which was such
...more
