Judgment involves determining the relative payoff associated with each possible outcome of a decision, including those associated with “correct” decisions as well as those associated with mistakes. Judgment requires specifying the objective you’re actually pursuing and is a necessary step in decision making. As prediction machines make predictions increasingly better, faster, and cheaper, the value of human judgment will increase because we’ll need more of it. We may be more willing to exert effort and apply judgment to decisions where we previously had chosen not to decide (by accepting the
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