Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence
"What does AI mean for your business? Read this book to find out." -- Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google
Artificial intelligence does the seemingly impossible, magically bringing machines to life--driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI will bring can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design p...more
If we reduce AI down to ML and ignore the messy realities of the real world (i.e. assume that the curse of dimensionality isn’t a thing and the only limitation on creating perfect predictions is access to sufficient training data), then we get the analysis in this book. It paints a picture of a world where the only barrier to self-driving cars is a sufficiently rich training set so that the AI can predict what a driver would d ...more
For example, they frame AI as a prediction tool, and then discuss the ways that our life and wor ...more
Recently I read Prediction Machines by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, three professors from UofT’s Rotman School of Management. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to go ‘beyond the headlines’ with respect to what impact on the world machine learning & AI will have.
“Where others see transformational new innovation, we see a simple fall in price.”
The key idea the book revolves around is ...more
It was very repetitive at times but this allows the core message to come across clearly: AI helps with making more accurate and faster predictions. Hence, when you find that the cost of prediction falls, industries are either disrupted or new industries proliferate.
Overall, three stars (more likely makes sense as a three-and-a-half) for being informative but not providing a significant ...more
A practical examination of understanding innovations In Artificial Intelligence (specifically Machine Learning) and how commercial applications of AI have already impacted (and will continue to affect) business models, the role of government, and the economic and social relationship between machines and human.
The three authors are professors of economics at U of Toronto Rotman School of Management who are also founders of an innovation incubator with investments in AI and deep learni ...more
By narrow audience and mean for business leaders, decision makers, and people learning more on the subject, could be students or economists. It is explicitly aimed at them not a lay audience. It is not a computer science book, rather an economics book on the the impact of the new technology of cheap prediction - wonky but not overly complex or jargon filled. Well structured, some may just read for relevent ...more
Overall, I didn't find much depth in the book and it was similar t ...more
Fascinating & pointed read that focuses on both the strategic & operational aspect of AI - great use of corporate examples to underly and/or analogize the decisions required to succeed going forward
Writing is very clear & concise, chapters are kept relatively short & summations at the end of each chapter reinforce the key points; Economic hypotheses are consistent, driving home a new, new normal
Alexa has replaced the parent as the all-knowing source of information in the ey ...more
This was actually recommended to me by a client of mine, Emmanuel Fombu, who specialises in writing and talking about the future of healthcare. It was a good recommen ...more
At the heart of the book is the concept that AI/ML is a "prediction machine" that is dramatically lowering the cost of making predictions, which will lead to making it cheaper ...more
Prediction, however, is not tantamount to judgment, valuation, let alone decision-making. It is far from causation. It is a mere correlation between events. It lacks cultural, political, ethical ...more
I found it really interesting and written simply; it wasn’t formulas or math but a simple cause-and-effect look at how the cost of computer-based prediction (AI) is falling, and what that will mean to ...more
It introduces some good ideas here and there (e.g. AI canvas). But they can be derived by the reader herself, too. So nothing revolutionary. The impact of AI on micro and macro level is not discussed in detail I was expecting.
The reason I am putting 3 starts is the preface section where top AI guys say very nice (luring?) words about the book. I don’t think they mean the words they say.
But anyway, it ...more
The book talks about man VS. machine, but in the modeling world, people might be more interesting in the topic of classical model (linear regression/logistic regression) VS. machine learning model. The book does not cover it.
Goodreads is hiring!
Learn more »