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Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence
by
,
"What does AI mean for your business? Read this book to find out." -- Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google
Artificial intelligence does the seemingly impossible, magically bringing machines to life--driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI will bring can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design
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Kindle Edition, 272 pages
Published
April 17th 2018
by Harvard Business Review Press
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Start your review of Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence
This is a pretty good book about how artificial intelligence (AI) can be applied to businesses. It is not a technical book--you won't find any details about the wide range of technologies being used for machine learning. Instead, you will find many ingenious ways to put AI to use, as well as all the business ramifications. Three professionals from Toronto's Rotman School of management collaborated to write this book. The book is unified, and reads as if it were written by a single person.
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This book is one of those assuming a perfectly spherical cow things.
If we reduce AI down to ML and ignore the messy realities of the real world (i.e. assume that the curse of dimensionality isnt a thing and the only limitation on creating perfect predictions is access to sufficient training data), then we get the analysis in this book. It paints a picture of a world where the only barrier to self-driving cars is a sufficiently rich training set so that the AI can predict what a driver would do, ...more
If we reduce AI down to ML and ignore the messy realities of the real world (i.e. assume that the curse of dimensionality isnt a thing and the only limitation on creating perfect predictions is access to sufficient training data), then we get the analysis in this book. It paints a picture of a world where the only barrier to self-driving cars is a sufficiently rich training set so that the AI can predict what a driver would do, ...more
More of a 3.5 stars. If you aren't familiar with AI, this is probably a very good introduction, although the examples will date very quickly and some of them are plain incorrect (e.g. face tags now sync across Mac and iOS). The point about prediction being a central part of AI is well-made and important, but like most popular economics books, they take this new insight rather too far and with too much confidence.
I've read a lot of book on artificial intelligence--this is by far the best one. The others were good, but mostly focused on defining what it is from a technical standpoint. And they all shared ideas on how to use it. But not until I read this one did I realize that all the others are focused on specific situations. This book is the first I've read that focuses on the principles behind the specifics.
For example, they frame AI as a prediction tool, and then discuss the ways that our life and ...more
For example, they frame AI as a prediction tool, and then discuss the ways that our life and ...more
Authors, the three economists from university of Toronto, do the great job of demystifing artificial intelligence by examining it through the lens of standard economic theory.but I'm recommends this to you only if you are a business leader, policy maker and try to understand about how artificial intelligence will shaping the world economy, then this book will helpful for you. The authors insightful journey into the topic will leave you surprised by how transformative this technological waves
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It is difficult to have a timely and relevant book on such a broad topic as artificial intelligence; some parts will be familiar while other parts are new and fascinating. This book would probably interest knowledge workers or anyone wanting to know how AI is changing our environment and behaviors. For example, we used to review our credit card statements to see if there were any fraudulent charges. Now based on our purchasing habits, credit card companies are flagging possible fraudulent
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This review originally appeared on my website: https://daveveitch.wordpress.com/2018...
Recently I read Prediction Machines by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, three professors from UofTs Rotman School of Management. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to go beyond the headlines with respect to what impact on the world machine learning & AI will have.
Topic
Where others see transformational new innovation, we see a simple fall in price.
The key idea the book revolves around is ...more
Recently I read Prediction Machines by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, three professors from UofTs Rotman School of Management. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to go beyond the headlines with respect to what impact on the world machine learning & AI will have.
Topic
Where others see transformational new innovation, we see a simple fall in price.
The key idea the book revolves around is ...more
Topic:
A practical examination of understanding innovations In Artificial Intelligence (specifically Machine Learning) and how commercial applications of AI have already impacted (and will continue to affect) business models, the role of government, and the economic and social relationship between machines and human.
Style:
The three authors are professors of economics at U of Toronto Rotman School of Management who are also founders of an innovation incubator with investments in AI and deep ...more
A practical examination of understanding innovations In Artificial Intelligence (specifically Machine Learning) and how commercial applications of AI have already impacted (and will continue to affect) business models, the role of government, and the economic and social relationship between machines and human.
Style:
The three authors are professors of economics at U of Toronto Rotman School of Management who are also founders of an innovation incubator with investments in AI and deep ...more
I was recently asked to organize my companys strategic offsite. I wanted a keynote speaker who could discuss machine learning and its impact on the investment industry. I came across the name, Ajay Agrawal, the founder of Creative Destruction Labs - a remarkable organization at the forefront of science, data, and technology based in Toronto - and the author Prediction Machines. Agrawals premise is fascinating: as predictions get cheaper to make it will change how we use them - similar to how
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The book was a good high level introduction to AI and its implications, especially from a business perspective.
It was very repetitive at times but this allows the core message to come across clearly: AI helps with making more accurate and faster predictions. Hence, when you find that the cost of prediction falls, industries are either disrupted or new industries proliferate.
Overall, three stars (more likely makes sense as a three-and-a-half) for being informative but not providing a significant ...more
It was very repetitive at times but this allows the core message to come across clearly: AI helps with making more accurate and faster predictions. Hence, when you find that the cost of prediction falls, industries are either disrupted or new industries proliferate.
Overall, three stars (more likely makes sense as a three-and-a-half) for being informative but not providing a significant ...more
The authors provide a good framework for understanding the changes that Artificial Intelligence effect in businesses and the economy. A book that avoids getting excessively technical (either about economics or computer science) while still avoiding the hype and shallowness of most discussions on the theme. A greater attention to the impacts of AI on outside stakeholders could have improved the overall result, but the book still achieves its framing goals.
Prediction machines will have their most immediate impact at the decision level. But decisions have six other key elements. When someone (or something) makes a decision, they take input data from the world that enables a prediction. That prediction is possible because training occurred about relationships between different types of data and which data is most closely associated with a situation. Combining the prediction with judgment on what matters, the decision maker can then choose an action.
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Ive been putting this book off for a little while, and Im not really sure why. I think I thought it was going to be slow going, but it turns out that I whizzed through it in a day or so. I wasnt too worried about the subject matter, even though its non-fiction about artificial intelligence from the Harvard Business Review press.
This was actually recommended to me by a client of mine, Emmanuel Fombu, who specialises in writing and talking about the future of healthcare. It was a good ...more
This was actually recommended to me by a client of mine, Emmanuel Fombu, who specialises in writing and talking about the future of healthcare. It was a good ...more
Full disclosure: I read this for work, as one of the writers recently joined my organizations board. That said, this book is great for someone familiar with the concept of AI & curious about how it may (or may not) impact business in general, but doesnt need a length functional/technical review.
I found it really interesting and written simply; it wasnt formulas or math but a simple cause-and-effect look at how the cost of computer-based prediction (AI) is falling, and what that will mean to ...more
I found it really interesting and written simply; it wasnt formulas or math but a simple cause-and-effect look at how the cost of computer-based prediction (AI) is falling, and what that will mean to ...more
An excellent book on the economics of Artificial Intelligence. Steeped in both economics and AI/ML, this book steers clear of hype (or anti-hype), applying standard economic concepts to a rapidly emerging phenomenon. The book is geared to business readers not economists or policymakers but it has a lot to offer to everyone.
At the heart of the book is the concept that AI/ML is a "prediction machine" that is dramatically lowering the cost of making predictions, which will lead to making it cheaper ...more
At the heart of the book is the concept that AI/ML is a "prediction machine" that is dramatically lowering the cost of making predictions, which will lead to making it cheaper ...more
It is a 4 star or may be even 5 star if you have not done proper reading on AI business before.
It introduces some good ideas here and there (e.g. AI canvas). But they can be derived by the reader herself, too. So nothing revolutionary. The impact of AI on micro and macro level is not discussed in detail I was expecting.
The reason I am putting 3 starts is the preface section where top AI guys say very nice (luring?) words about the book. I dont think they mean the words they say.
But anyway, it ...more
It introduces some good ideas here and there (e.g. AI canvas). But they can be derived by the reader herself, too. So nothing revolutionary. The impact of AI on micro and macro level is not discussed in detail I was expecting.
The reason I am putting 3 starts is the preface section where top AI guys say very nice (luring?) words about the book. I dont think they mean the words they say.
But anyway, it ...more
The book breaks down how humans make decisions and how machine prediction might assist in the process very well. My favourite part is that it forces you to think about the tasks you perform at work and how they might be different (which actions we would do more of or less of) if AI is introduced into the workflow.
AI and Machine Learning are on the rise now more than ever, with the increase and evolution of computational power it seems easier to work with it and even further companies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon among others are pretty well positioned on basing its Economic growth in such a technological evolment. I would recommend this book to anyone who is interested to learn more about AI and ML and understand how important it is and it will be in the near future
Good high level overview of ML & AI in business. Not meant for a technical Data Scientist, but very beneficial for understand how to explain things at a high level to a non technical audience and bring up some interesting discussions.
This book is easy to read. If you want to know how AI can affect our lives, I would recommend this book to you. There is no difficult technical term in the book, which I like it a lot. This book was written by economists so you can see another perspectives about AI.
AI becomes more understandable in terms of economic analysis. The economic point of view oddly added more insight into the potential changes AI could bring.
Perfectly adequate summary of the functioning and implications of current machine learning / neural network models of "AI." I thought it was primarily useful for recasting AI as driving a "drop in the cost of accurate predictions" (similar to how the internet's primary innovation was a "drop in the cost of searching for relevant data").
Title: Prediction Machines
Authors: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
Publish Year: 2018
An economists viewpoint on what will occur as our ability to better predict outcomes increases. What will change and what will become more or less valuable?
Part 1: Prediction
- Prediction has become cheap, which means more people will utilize it.
o Arithmetic and computing used to be expensive. As it became cheaper, people began experimenting and using arithmetic to solve problems that werent typically ...more
Authors: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
Publish Year: 2018
An economists viewpoint on what will occur as our ability to better predict outcomes increases. What will change and what will become more or less valuable?
Part 1: Prediction
- Prediction has become cheap, which means more people will utilize it.
o Arithmetic and computing used to be expensive. As it became cheaper, people began experimenting and using arithmetic to solve problems that werent typically ...more
The manager's handbook on how to pitch AI projects to your boss
One of the best books on the possibilities, advantages and disadvantages of using AI, that doesn't focuses solely on buzzwords or useless examples. It starts from what actually matters in AI, prediction, goes on to talk about how we apply prediction and how multiple fields have changed completely after we decided to go for a prediction approach (like translation, that stopped being something that was trying to be done with linguistics and became a prediction problem) and how this shift in
...more
Three economists decided to write about AI. They got excited about AI, and that distracted them enough that they only said a modest amount about the standard economics principles that laymen need to better understand. As a result, the book ended up mostly being simple descriptions of topics on which the authors had limited expertise. I noticed fewer amateurish mistakes than I expected from this strategy, and they mostly end up doing a good job of describing AI in ways that are mildly helpful to
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The book does include some good examples about application of AI in the business world. It should also be useful for people who know about machine learning but not much about economics. However, the book feels a bit light for readers who has an ECON background.
The book talks about man VS. machine, but in the modeling world, people might be more interesting in the topic of classical model (linear regression/logistic regression) VS. machine learning model. The book does not cover it.
The book talks about man VS. machine, but in the modeling world, people might be more interesting in the topic of classical model (linear regression/logistic regression) VS. machine learning model. The book does not cover it.
Jan 02, 2019
Ashfontana
added it
A pragmatic way to think about AI. Perhaps the best book at the intersection of AI and business out right now.
Rating - 8.5
Fascinating & pointed read that focuses on both the strategic & operational aspect of AI - great use of corporate examples to underly and/or analogize the decisions required to succeed going forward
Writing is very clear & concise, chapters are kept relatively short & summations at the end of each chapter reinforce the key points; Economic hypotheses are consistent, driving home a new, new normal
Key Points
Alexa has replaced the parent as the all-knowing source of ...more
Fascinating & pointed read that focuses on both the strategic & operational aspect of AI - great use of corporate examples to underly and/or analogize the decisions required to succeed going forward
Writing is very clear & concise, chapters are kept relatively short & summations at the end of each chapter reinforce the key points; Economic hypotheses are consistent, driving home a new, new normal
Key Points
Alexa has replaced the parent as the all-knowing source of ...more
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“the new wave of artificial intelligence does not actually bring us intelligence but instead a critical component of intelligence—prediction.”
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“We are narrow thinkers, we are noisy thinkers, and it is very easy to improve upon us.”
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