For two years, the GJP conducted training sessions, watched people make predictions, and collected data. They tracked who got better, and how performance changed as people were exposed to different types of tutorials. Eventually, the GJP published their findings: Giving participants even brief training sessions in research and statistical techniques—teaching them various ways of thinking about the future—boosted the accuracy of their predictions. And most surprising, a particular kind of lesson—training in how to think probabilistically—significantly increased people’s abilities to forecast
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