Principles: Life and Work

by Ray Dalio

If you’re truly looking at things objectively, you must recognize that the probability of you always having the best answer is small and that, even if you have it,

you can’t be confident that you do before others test you. So it is invaluable to ...

Ask yourself: Am I seeing this just through my own eyes? If so, then you should know that you’re terribly handicapped. g. Be clear on whether you are arguing or seeking to understand, and think about which is ...

I define believable people as those who have repeatedly and successfully accomplished the thing in question—who have a strong track record with at least three successes—and have great explanations of their approach when probed.

Conversely, if you are clearly the more believable person, you might politely remind the other of that and suggest that they ask you questions.

3.3 Appreciate the art of thoughtful disagreement.

Exchanges in which you really see what the other person is seeing and they really see what you are seeing—with both your “higher-level yous” trying to get to the truth—

To me, it’s pointless when people get angry with each other when they disagree because most disagreements aren’t threats as much as opportunities for learning.

People who change their minds because they learned something are the winners, whereas those who stubbornly refuse to learn are the losers.

A good exercise to make sure that you are doing this well is to describe back to the person you are disagreeing with their own perspective.

I also recommend that both parties observe a “two-minute rule” in which neither interrupts the other, so they both have time to get all their thoughts out.

The reluctance to disagree is the “lower-level you’s” mistaken interpretation of disagreement

as conflict. That’s why radical open-mindedness isn’t easy:

3.4 Triangulate your view with believable people who are willing to disagree.

By questioning experts individually and encouraging them to have thoughtful disagreement with each other that I can listen to and ask questions about, I both raise my probability of being right and become much better educated. This is most true when the experts disagree with me or with each other. Smart people who can

thoughtfully disagree are the greatest teachers, far better than a professor assigned to stand in front of a board and lecture at you. The knowledge I acquire usually leads to principles that I develop and refine for similar cases that arise in the future. In some cases in which the subjects are just too complex for me to understand in the time required, I will turn over the decision making to knowledgeab...

a. Plan for the worst-case scenario to

make it as good as possible.

Naturally I wanted her to speak with the doctor from Johns Hopkins who originally diagnosed me and recommended a watch-and-wait approach, so right then and there I called the other doctor to see what each would say about the other’s views. This was eye-opening. While the two doctors had told me completely different things when I met with them in person, when they were on the phone together, they sought to minimize their disagreement and make the other look good, putting professional courtesy ahead of thrashing things out to get at the best answer.

He told me that my condition would basically cause me no problems so long as I came in for an endoscopic examination every three months. He explained that it was like skin cancer but on the inside—if it was watched and any new growth was clipped before it metastasized into the bloodstream, I’d be okay. According to him, the results

for patients monitored in this way were no different than for those who had their esophagus removed.

I got the results. They were shocking to say the least. After analyzing the tissue, it turned out there wasn’t any high-grade dysplasia at all! Even experts can make mistakes; my point is simply that it pays to be radically open-minded and triangulate

with smart people. Had I not pushed for other opinions, my life would have taken a very different course. My point is that you can significantly raise your probabilities of making the right decisions by open-mindedly triangulating with believable people.

3.5 Recognize the signs of closed-mindedness and open-mindedness that you...

1. Closed-minded people don’t want their ideas challenged.

Open-minded people are more curious about why there is

disagreement. They are not angry when someone disagrees.

2. Closed-minded people are more likely to make statements than ask questions.

Open-minded people genuinely believe they could be wrong; the questions that they ask are genuine.

3. Closed-minded people focus

much more on being understood than on understanding others.

Open-minded people always feel compelled to see things through others’ eyes.

4. Closed-minded people say things like “I could be wrong . . . but here’s my opinion.” This is a classic cue I hear all the time. It’s often a perfunctory gesture that allows people to

hold their own opinion while convincing themselves that they are being open-minded. If your statement starts with “I could be wrong” or “I’m not believable,” you should probably follow it with a question and not an assertion. Open-minded...

5. Closed-minded people block others from ...

Open-minded people are always more interested in listening than in speaking;

6. Closed-minded people have trouble holding two thoughts simultaneously in their minds. They allow their own view to crowd out those of others.

Open-minded people can take in the thoughts of others without losing

7. Closed-minded people lack a deep sense of humility. Humility

Open-minded people approach everything with a deep-seated fear that they may be wrong.

Once you can sort out open-minded from closed-minded people, you’ll find that you want to surround yourself with open-minded ones.

working effectively together can significantly outperform a good decision maker working alone—and even the best decision maker can significantly improve his or her decision making with the help of other excellent decision makers.

3.6 Understand how you can become radically open-minded. No matter how open-minded

a. Regularly use pain as your guide toward quality reflection.

Note these feelings when they arise in you. By being aware of such signals of closed-mindedness, you can use them as cues to control your behavior and guide yourself toward open-mindedness. Doing this regularly will strengthen your ability to keep your “higher-level you” in control. The more you do it, the stronger you will become.

b. Make being open-minded a habit.

The good news is that these “amygdala hijackings”27 don’t last long so even if you’re having trouble controlling yourself in the moment, you can also allow a little time to pass to give your higher-level you space to reflect in a quality way.

c. Get to know your blind spots.

So take some time to record the circumstances in which you’ve consistently made bad decisions because you failed to see what others saw.

Write a list, tack it up on the wall, and stare at it. If ever you find yourself about to make a decision (especially a big decision) in one of these areas