Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

by Hans Rosling

Sword swallowing has always shown that the seemingly impossible can be possible, and inspired humans to think beyond the obvious.

This is because illusions don’t happen in our eyes, they happen in our brains.

because human beings have a strong dramatic instinct toward binary thinking, a basic urge to divide things into two distinct groups, with nothing but an empty gap in between.

The gap instinct makes us imagine division where there is just a smooth range, difference where there is convergence, and conflict where there is agreement.

We almost always get a more accurate picture by digging a little deeper and looking not just at the averages but at the spread: not just the group all bundled together, but the individuals.

stories of opposites are engaging and provocative and tempting—and very effective for triggering our gap instinct—but they rarely help understanding.

But the fact that extremes exist doesn’t tell us much. The majority is usually to be found in the middle, and it tells a very different story.

Factfulness is … recognizing when a story talks about a gap, and remembering that this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarized at all. Usually the majority is right there in the middle, where the gap is supposed to be. To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

The ultimate goal is to have the freedom to do what we want.

I am saying that things can be both bad and better.

Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better).

the single factor that does have a strong connection with large families: extreme poverty.

The only proven method for curbing population growth is to eradicate extreme poverty and give people better lives, including education and contraceptives.

When we are afraid, we do not see clearly.

fears are hardwired deep in our brains for obvious evolutionary reasons.

the fear instinct harms us by distorting our worldview.

With more money comes better preparedness.

better education, new affordable solutions, and global collaborations,

Because “frightening” and “dangerous” are two different things. Something frightening poses a perceived risk. Something dangerous poses a real risk.

Factfulness is … recognizing when frightening things get our attention,

To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.

Risk = danger × exposure.

Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.

“In the deepest poverty you should never do anything perfectly. If you do you are stealing resources from where they can be better used.”

This principle applies anywhere we are prioritizing scarce resources.

so long as resources are not infinite—and they never are infinite—it is the most compassionate thing to do to use your brain and work out how to do the most good with what you have.

Somebody just needs to count something. But rates are often more meaningful.

To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.

Compare.

80/20.

Divide.

Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups.

assume everything or everyone in one category is similar.

jump to conclusions about a whole category based on a few, or even just one, unusual example.

What the photos make clear is that the main factor that affects how people live is not their religion, their culture, or the country they live in, but their income.

five powerful ways to keep questioning your favorite categories: look for differences within and similarities across groups; beware of “the majority”; beware of exceptional examples; assume you are not “normal”; and beware of generalizing from one group to another.

Beware of “The Majority”

Beware of Exceptional Examples

But when presented with new evidence, we must always be ready to question our previous assumptions and reevaluate and admit if we were wrong.

Factfulness is … recognizing when a category is being used in an explanation,

and remembering that categories can be misleading.

To control the generalization instinct, question your categories.

be curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?

The destiny instinct is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures.

Values change all the time.

To control the destiny instinct, don’t confuse slow change with no change. Don’t dismiss an annual change—even an annual change of only 1 percent—because it seems too small and slow.

Keep track of gradual improvements.

Update your knowledge.

Collect examples of cultural change.

Being always in favor of or always against any particular idea makes you blind to information that doesn’t fit your perspective.