Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

by Hans Rosling

Instead, constantly test your favorite ideas for weaknesses. Be humble about the extent of your expertise.

Be curious about new information that doesn’t fit, and information from other fields.

see people who contradict you, disagree with you, and put forward different ideas as a great resource for understanding the world.

Sometimes, coming up against reality is what helps me see my mistakes, but often it is talking to, and trying to understand, someone with different ideas.

we should be highly skeptical about conclusions derived purely from number crunching.

recognizing that a single perspective can limit your imagination, and remembering that it is better to look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions. To control the single perspective instinct, get a toolbox, not a hammer.

Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.

Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.

If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.

Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions.

Welcome complexity.

Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.

The blame instinct makes us exaggerate the importance of individuals or of particular groups.

This undermines our ability to solve the problem, or prevent it from happening again, because we are stuck with oversimplistic finger pointing, which distracts us from the more complex truth and prevents us from focusing our energy in the right places.

Factfulness is … recognizing when a scapegoat is being used and remembering that blaming an individual often steals the focus from other possible explanations and blocks our ability to prevent similar problems in the future.

Look for causes, not villains.

Look for systems, not heroes.

When we are afraid and under time pressure and thinking of worst-case scenarios, we tend to make really stupid decisions. Our ability to think analytically can be overwhelmed by an urge to make quick decisions and take immediate action.

The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate action in the face of a perceived imminent danger.

It makes us stressed, amplifies our other instincts and makes them harder to control, blocks us from thinking analytically, tempts us to make up our minds too fast, and encourages us to take drastic actions that we haven’t thought through.

Fear plus urgency make for stupid, drastic decisions with unpredictable side effects.

Climate change is too important for that. It needs systematic analysis, thought-through decisions, incremental actions, and careful evaluation.

But the future is always uncertain to some degree. And whenever we talk about the future we should be open and clear about the level of uncertainty involved.

Let’s instead use that energy to solve the problem by taking action: action driven not by fear and urgency but by data and coolheaded analysis.

If we cared about it, why weren’t we measuring it?

Crying wolf too many times puts at risk the credibility and reputation of serious climate scientists and the entire movement.

When a problem seems urgent the first thing to do is not to cry wolf, but to organize the data.

it is crucial to protect its credibility and the credibility of those who produce it. Data must be used to tell the truth, not to call to action, no matter how noble the intentions.

The five that concern me most are the risks of global pandemic, financial collapse, world war, climate change, and extreme poverty.

and because each has the potential to cause mass suffering either directly or indirectly by pausing human progress for many years or decades.

These are mega killers that we must avoid, if at all possible, by acting collaboratively and step-by-step.

In a globalized world, the consequences of financial bubbles are devastating.

They can crash the economies of entire countries and put huge numbers of people out of work, creating disgruntled citizens looking for radical solutions.

The planet’s common resources, like the atmosphere, can only be governed by a globally respected authority, in a peaceful world abiding by global standards.

It requires a strong, well-functioning international community

And it requires some sense of global solidarity toward the needs of different people on different income levels.

The richest countries emit by far the most CO2 and must start improving first before wasting time pressuring others.

It’s a vicious circle: poverty leads to civil war, and civil war leads to poverty.

Factfulness is … recognizing when a decision feels urgent and remembering that it rarely is.

take small steps.

Take a breath.

Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.

Insist on the data.

If something is urgent and important, it shou...

Beware of data...

relevant but inaccurate, or accurate b...

Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case.

Ask how often such

predictions have been rig...

Be wary of drasti...