Think Like a Freak

by Steven D. Levitt

The conventional wisdom is often wrong. And a blithe acceptance of it can lead to sloppy, wasteful, or even dangerous outcomes.

A growing body of research suggests that even the smartest people tend to seek out evidence that confirms what they already think, rather than new information that would give them a more robust view of reality.

for until you can admit what you don’t yet know, it’s virtually impossible to learn what you need to.

“Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion but not to their own facts.”)

Then there are “beliefs,” things we hold to be true but which may not be easily verified.

what we “know” can plainly be sculpted by political or religious views.

“entrepreneurs of error,”

“supply beliefs when it will increase their own financial or ...

it can be hard to ever really “know” what caused or solved a given problem—and

“Dogmatism,” he says. That is, an unshakable belief they know something to be true even when they don’t.

just because you’re great at something doesn’t mean you’re good at everything.

ultracrepidarianism, or “the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one’s knowledge or competence.”

But being confident you are right is not the same as being right.

“[W]e can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar once put it, “It’s easier to jump out of a plane—hopefully with a parachute—than it is to change your mind about an opinion.”

So if you want your argument to be truly persuasive, it’s a good idea to acknowledge not only the known flaws but the potential for unintended consequences.

An anecdote is a snapshot, a one-dimensional shard of the big picture. It is lacking in scale, perspective, and data.

Anecdotes often represent the lowest form of persuasion.