Think Like a Freak

by Steven D. Levitt

Every time we pretend to know something, we are doing the same: protecting our own reputation rather than promoting the collective good.

Incentives can also explain why so many people are willing to predict the future. A huge payoff awaits anyone who makes a big and bold prediction that happens to come true.

Since almost no one has a strong incentive to keep track of everyone else’s bad predictions, it costs almost nothing to pretend you know what will happen in the future.