Graham

61%
Flag icon
After identifying as many of the possible outcomes as we can, we want to make our best guess at the probability of each of those futures occurring. When I consult with enterprises on building decision trees and determining probabilities of different futures, people frequently resist having to make a guess at the probability of future events mainly because they feel like they can’t be certain of what the likelihood of any scenario is. But that’s the point.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Rate this book
Clear rating
Open Preview