When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing

by Daniel H. Pink

Jonah Berger of the University of Pennsylvania and Devin Pope of the University of Chicago analyzed more than 18,000 National Basketball Association games over fifteen years, paying special attention to the games’ scores at halftime. It’s not surprising that teams ahead at halftime won more games than teams that were behind. For example, a six-point halftime lead gives a team about an 80 percent probability of winning the game. However, Berger and Pope detected an exception to the rule: Teams that were behind by just one point were more likely to win. Indeed, being down by one at halftime was more advantageous than being up by one. Home teams with a one-point deficit at halftime won more than 58 percent of the time. Indeed, trailing by one point at halftime, weirdly, was equivalent to being ahead by two points.20 Berger and Pope then looked at ten years’ worth of NCAA matchups, nearly 46,000 games in all, and found the same, though somewhat smaller, effect. “Being slightly behind [at halftime] significantly increases a team’s chance of winning,” they write. And when they examined the scoring patterns in greater detail, they found that the trailing teams scored a disproportionate number of their points immediately after the halftime break. They came out strong at the start of the second half. Truckloads of sports data can reveal correlations, but they don’t tell us anything definitive about causes. So Berger and Pope conducted some simple experiments to identify the mechani...