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computers could connect those dots more efficiently than any of us could,
didn’t have personal biases and emotional barriers to overcome,
investment decision-making process is effective because the investment principles have been put into decision rules that make decisions that people then follow while the management decision-making process is less effective because the management principles have not been put into decision rules that people can follow to make management decisions.
algorithmic decision making is that it focuses people on cause-effect relationships and, in that way, helps foster a real idea meritocracy. When everyone can see the criteria the algorithms use and have a hand in developing them, they can all agree that the system is fair
good habits come from thinking repeatedly in a principled way, like learning to speak a language. The good thinking comes from exploring the reasoning behind the principles.
Because things were good at the time and the picture I was painting was worse than anything they’d experienced in their lifetimes, they found what I was saying implausible.
people who see the world through the lens of the media tend to look for who is good and who is evil rather than what the vested interests and relative powers are and how they are being played out.
I came to see each encounter as “another one of those” that I could approach more calmly and analytically,
Studying all those painful first-time encounters, I learned that even if they hadn’t happened to me, most of them had happened to other people in other times and places, which gave me a healthy respect for history, a hunger to have a universal understanding of how reality works, and the desire to build timeless and universal principles for dealing with it.
satisfaction of success doesn’t come from achieving your goals, but from struggling well.
Look to the patterns of those things that affect you in order to understand the cause-effect relationships that drive them and to learn principles for dealing with them effectively.
you will notice which “one of those” you are facing and instinctually apply the right principles to help you through it.
think of my life as if it were a game in which each problem I face is a puzzle I need to solve.
past the pain of my mistake making and instead enjoy the pleasure that comes with learning from it.
Each of us needs to decide what we value most and choose the paths we take to achieve it.
Most people fight seeing what’s true when it’s not what they want it to be.
Being radically transparent and radically open-minded accelerates this learning process.
do things in the unique ways you think are best—and to open-mindedly reflect on the feedback that comes
Man’s most distinctive quality is our singular ability to look down on reality from a higher perspective and synthesize an understanding
trying to understand anything—economies, markets, the weather, whatever—one can approach the subject with two perspectives: 1. Top down: By trying to find the one code/law that drives them all. For example, in the case of markets, one could study universal laws like supply and demand that affect all economies and markets. In the case of species, one could focus on learning how the genetic code (DNA) works for all species. 2. Bottom up: By studying each specific case and the codes/laws that are true for them, for example, the codes or laws particular to the market for wheat or the DNA sequences
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Man is just one of ten million species and just one of the billions of manifestations of the forces that bring together and take apart atoms through time.
Whenever I observe something in nature that I (or mankind) think is wrong, I assume that I’m wrong and try to figure out why what nature is doing makes sense.
nature optimizes for the whole, not for the individual, but most people judge good and bad based only on how it affects them.
Everything from the smallest subatomic particle to the entire galaxy is evolving. While everything apparently dies or disappears in time, the truth is that it all just gets reconfigured in evolving forms. Remember that energy can’t be destroyed
Evolution consists of adaptations/inventions that provide spurts of benefits that decline in value. That painful decline leads either to new adaptations and new inventions that bring new products, organizations, and human capabilities to new and higher levels of development (as shown in the top diagram on the facing page); or decline and death, which looks like the diagram at bottom left.
perfection doesn’t exist; it is a goal that fuels a never-ending process of adaptation.
you’re constantly learning and improving, your evolutionary process will look like the one that’s ascending.
Through our own eyes, we are everything—e.g., when we die, the whole world disappears. So to most people (and to other species) dying is the worst thing possible, and it is of paramount importance that we have the best life possible. However, when we look down on ourselves through the eyes of nature we are of absolutely no significance.
You will have to decide to what extent you will put the interests of others above your own, and which others you will choose
most everything that at first seemed “bad” to me—like rainy days, weaknesses, and even death—was because I held preconceived notions of what I personally wanted.
success is struggling and evolving as effectively as possible, i.e., learning rapidly about oneself and one’s environment, and then changing to improve.
nature gave us pain for a purpose. So what is its purpose? It alerts us and helps direct us.
There is no avoiding pain, especially if you’re going after ambitious goals.
If you can develop a reflexive reaction to psychic pain that causes you to reflect on it rather than avoid it, it will lead to your rapid learning/evolving.
If you choose to push through this often painful process of personal evolution, you will naturally “ascend” to higher and higher levels.
By “getting to the other side,” I mean that you will become hooked on: • Identifying, accepting, and learning how to deal with your weaknesses, • Preferring that the people around you be honest with you rather than keep their negative thoughts about you to themselves, and • Being yourself rather than having to pretend to be strong where you are weak.
The quality of your life will depend on the choices you make at those painful moments. The faster one appropriately adapts, the better.
first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making.
the first-order consequences are the temptations that cost us what we really want,
Whatever circumstances life brings you, you will be more likely to succeed and find happiness if you take responsibility for making your decisions well instead of complaining about things being beyond your control. Psychologists call this having an “internal locus of control,”
the way you will operate to achieve your goals your machine. It consists of a design (the things that have to get done) and the people (who will do the things that need getting done).
if you as the designer/manager discover that you as the worker can’t do something well, you need to fire yourself as the worker and get a good replacement, while staying in the role of designer/manager of your own life.
stop seeing struggling as something negative. Most of life’s greatest opportunities come out of moments of struggle;
When encountering your weaknesses you have four choices: 1. You can deny them (which is what most people do). 2. You can accept them and work at them in order to try to convert them into strengths (which might or might not work depending on your ability to change). 3. You can accept your weaknesses and find ways around them. 4. Or, you can change what you are going after.
Whatever your nature is, there are many paths that will suit you, so don’t fixate on just one. Should a particular path close, all you have to do is find another good one consistent with what you’re like.
1. Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. 2. Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals. 3. Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones. 4. Don’t let pain stand in the way of progress. 5. Don’t blame bad outcomes on anyone but yourself.
Knowing when not to make your own decisions is one of the most important skills you can develop.
Believable parties are those who have repeatedly and successfully accomplished something—and have great explanations for how they did it.
